本文關鍵詞： 低碳經濟 環(huán)境保護 二氧化碳 評價 低碳城市　出處：《中南大學》2011年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：自從工業(yè)革命以來,人類創(chuàng)造了巨大的物質財富,環(huán)境的負外部性問題也越來越突出,元兇就是以二氧化碳為主的溫室氣體排放增加。2003年英國提出了旨在降低溫室氣體排放的“低碳經濟”,世界各國也紛紛開始減少溫室氣體排放的行動。在傳統(tǒng)高碳經濟發(fā)展模式受到嚴重質疑和挑戰(zhàn)下,發(fā)展低碳經濟成為各國進行經濟轉型的新起點。本文基于低碳經濟和環(huán)境保護提出了低碳型環(huán)境保護指標評價體系和與之相關的低碳城市評價體系。 研究首先介紹了當前經濟發(fā)展狀況和氣體變暖的背景,對低碳經濟發(fā)展相關研究和國外低碳經濟發(fā)展經驗進行了綜述,在生態(tài)承載力理論,資源、環(huán)境、經濟系統(tǒng)理論,新馬爾薩斯人口理論環(huán)境庫茲涅茨曲線等相關理論指導下,研究低碳經濟和環(huán)境保護。 通過對1985-2008年內生產總值、能源消費和二氧化碳排放量的時間序列分析得出,GDP是引起能源消費增加的原因,能源消費增加則不是GDP的原因,能源消費的增加是二氧化碳增加的原因,GDP與二氧化碳排放量增加的因果關系并不顯著。因此,理論上可以實現(xiàn)經濟增長與能源消費增加的脫鉤,進而實現(xiàn)經濟增長和二氧化碳排放的脫鉤,降低溫室氣體排放。 在環(huán)境質量評價模型基礎上,通過分析溫室效應及其作用機理,引入生態(tài)承載力概念,建立起以二氧化碳為主的溫室氣體排放的壓力—狀態(tài)—響應(PSR)模型,分析二氧化碳排放對整個經濟社會的作用過程。從而,溫室氣體排放使得生態(tài)承載力越來越逼近極限,自然環(huán)境不斷對社會發(fā)出預警信息,這需要全社會行動起來,做出應對二氧化碳排放持續(xù)增加的行動。 在分析了Kaya公式后,采用灰色關聯(lián)模型分析我國二氧化碳排放的影響因子,得出：能源消費對C02排放影響最大,其次是GDP,然后是人口數(shù)量、固定資產投資和居民消費�？紤]到經濟發(fā)展和環(huán)境保護的雙贏,可從改善能源消費、控制人口數(shù)量、調節(jié)固定資產投資和引導居民消費方向等降低碳排放。 在前面分析的基礎上,根據(jù)科學性、系統(tǒng)性、可行性等原則,建立了低碳環(huán)境保護指標體系,構建以經濟發(fā)展指標、低碳(科技)發(fā)展指標、社會發(fā)展指標、環(huán)境指標和政策指標為主的指標評價模型,從經濟、科技、社會、環(huán)境和政策幾個方面反映地區(qū)低碳型環(huán)境保護程度,評價和保護經濟發(fā)展中的生態(tài)和人文環(huán)境。實證數(shù)據(jù)顯示,我國低碳型環(huán)境保護綜合評價指數(shù)連年遞增,說明我國在發(fā)展低碳型環(huán)境保護方面快速提高。在此基礎上,建立了低碳城市評價模型,以長沙為例進行了實證評價,提出了低碳城市建設路線圖和實現(xiàn)路徑。從理論上建立了低碳農業(yè)評價模型。 針對我們在發(fā)展低碳經濟現(xiàn)實情況,從優(yōu)勢、劣勢、機會和威脅四個方面采用SWOT分析方法進行了戰(zhàn)略分析。最后,依據(jù)評價模型提出我國低碳經濟下環(huán)境保護的路徑選擇：加強碳源碳匯管理,推動發(fā)展低碳技術,引導公眾參與低碳環(huán)保和強化國際合作等。
[Abstract]:Since the industrial revolution, mankind created enormous material wealth, the negative externality of environment has become increasingly prominent, the culprit is dominated by carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions increased.2003 in Britain proposed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions of the "low carbon economy", the countries in the world have begun to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Serious questions and challenges in the traditional high carbon economic development model, the development of low-carbon economy has become the new starting point of economic transition countries. In this paper, the low carbon economy and environmental protection are put forward based on the low carbon environmental protection index evaluation system and the related low carbon city evaluation system.
The research firstly introduces the current situation of economic development and gas warming, the development of low carbon economy in foreign related research and development of low carbon economy experience is summarized, the theory of ecological carrying capacity, resources, environment, economic system theory, relevant theories of Malthus's theory of new environmental Kuznets curve, and Research on low carbon economy the protection of the environment.
The GDP of 1985-2008 years, the time series of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions of GDP is caused by the increase of energy consumption, increase of energy consumption is not the cause of GDP, the increase of energy consumption is due to increase of CO2, the causal relationship between GDP and two carbon dioxide emissions increase is not significant. So in theory, can realize the decoupling of economic growth and the increase of energy consumption, so as to realize the decoupling of economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions, reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
In the foundation of environmental quality evaluation model, through the analysis of the greenhouse effect and its mechanism, the introduction of the concept of ecological carrying capacity, establish the pressure state of greenhouse gases mainly carbon dioxide emissions response (PSR) model, analysis of carbon dioxide emission process of the whole economy and society. Thus, the ecological greenhouse gas emissions more and more close to the limit the bearing capacity of the natural environment, constantly on the social early warning information, it needs the whole society to act, respond to carbon dioxide emissions continue to rise.
In the analysis of the Kaya formula, using gray relational model analysis of the influencing factors, China's carbon dioxide emissions that the energy consumption effect on C02 emission maximum, followed by GDP, then the population, fixed assets investment and consumption. Considering the economic development and environmental protection of the win-win, from the improvement of the energy consumption control. The population, adjustment of fixed asset investment and guide the residents consumption direction to reduce carbon emissions.
Based on the above analysis, according to scientific, systematic, feasibility principle, establishes the index system of low carbon environmental protection, to construct the index of economic development, low carbon (Technology) development index, social development index, index evaluation model, environmental indicators and policy indicators from economy, technology, society and environment and policy aspects reflect the regional low-carbon environmental protection, evaluation and protection of economic development in the ecological and cultural environment. The empirical data show that China's low carbon environmental protection comprehensive evaluation index increased year after year, shows that China's rapid increase in the development of low-carbon environmental protection. On this basis, the establishment of low carbon city evaluation model to Changsha empirical evaluation, put forward the construction of low-carbon city route map and the realization of the path of low-carbon agriculture. Evaluation model is established in theory.
For us in the development of low carbon economy from the reality of the situation, advantages, disadvantages, opportunities and threats of the four aspects of using the SWOT analysis method of strategic analysis. Finally, based on the evaluation model put forward path selection of environmental protection of China's low carbon economy: strengthening carbon source carbon management, promote the development of low-carbon technologies, to guide public participation low carbon environmental protection and strengthen international cooperation.

【學位授予單位】：中南大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2011
【分類號】：X196;F224

【引證文獻】

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1 陳曼英;基于模糊理論的地鐵火災風險評估及控制研究[D];華僑大學;2013年

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1 宮治軍;低碳港口全生命周期評價體系研究[D];大連理工大學;2013年

2 劉海燕;黑龍江省低碳農業(yè)發(fā)展模式及支撐體系研究[D];東北林業(yè)大學;2013年

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本文編號：1522570