本文關(guān)鍵詞： 匯率制度 產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu) Logistic回歸模型 技術(shù)進(jìn)步 主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)　出處：《天津財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2008年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】： 關(guān)于匯率制度選擇的爭論,源于金屬本位退出歷史舞臺和信用貨幣興起時期。進(jìn)入布雷頓森林體系以后,釘住美元的固定匯率制度處于絕對優(yōu)勢地位,但隨著美元地位的逐漸走弱,選擇浮動匯率制度的呼聲日趨高漲,對于匯率制度選擇的大爭論拉開了帷幕。 布雷頓森林體系下的世界貨幣體系蘊(yùn)含了浮動匯率制度取代固定匯率制度的沖動。固定匯率制度的擁護(hù)者處于防守地位,浮動匯率制度的擁護(hù)者處于攻擊態(tài)勢。當(dāng)時的歷史條件決定了在進(jìn)行匯率制度選擇爭論時,更多地是從宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量和匯率制度外生的角度進(jìn)行考慮。同時,布雷頓森林體系下的匯率制度爭論大多是在發(fā)達(dá)國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家之間展開,經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們的觀點難免會染上本國主流學(xué)派的觀點,并潛意識中以卷入爭論的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們所在國家作為分析匯率制度選擇的藍(lán)本。這樣,一方面導(dǎo)致了對發(fā)展中國家匯率制度選擇的忽略,另一方面,由于發(fā)達(dá)國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)相似,無論是“長期”還是“短期”,對他們進(jìn)行匯率制度選擇的影響都不大,對匯率制度選擇“期限”的忽略也就在所難免。 進(jìn)入牙買加體系以后,無一例外地,發(fā)達(dá)市場經(jīng)濟(jì)國家選擇了浮動匯率制度,而絕大多數(shù)發(fā)展中國家則選擇了釘住式的固定匯率制度、中間匯率制度、有管理的浮動匯率制度,或者干脆放棄本國貨幣,直接以某一發(fā)達(dá)國家的貨幣作為本國貨幣。1997年亞洲金融危機(jī)以后,相繼興起了“原罪論”和“害怕浮動論”,“原罪論”將發(fā)展中國家之所以實行固定匯率制度歸因于發(fā)展中國家對“貨幣錯配”和“期限錯配”進(jìn)行“原罪”的結(jié)果;“害怕浮動論”則認(rèn)為發(fā)展中國家之所以選擇固定匯率制度是對“荷蘭病”的恐懼和政府公信力的缺失。與其說“原罪論”和“害怕浮動論”是對發(fā)展中國家選擇固定匯率制度原因的尋找,毋寧說是對發(fā)展中國家選擇固定匯率制度既成現(xiàn)實的譴責(zé)。不可否認(rèn),現(xiàn)有的主流匯率制度選擇理論應(yīng)用于發(fā)展中國家,存在著諸多的不公平之處。 集中到一點,現(xiàn)有的主流匯率制度選擇理論的局限性主要表現(xiàn)在對各國發(fā)展程度不同的忽略,忽略了發(fā)展程度差異,實際上就是忽略了影響發(fā)展中國家匯率制度選擇的最主要因素。 各國之間發(fā)展程度差異可以通過產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的差異得到體現(xiàn)。同時,由于經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展程度差異在概念上的抽象性,運(yùn)用產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)差異對匯率制度選擇進(jìn)行分析成為可能。運(yùn)用Logistic二元離散被解釋變量計量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)模型對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和匯率制度進(jìn)行回歸分析以后,本文得出:匯率制度選擇與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)之間高度相關(guān),產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高度越高的國家越傾向于選擇自由浮動匯率制度,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高度越低的國家越傾向于選擇非自由浮動的匯率制度。 然而,盡管通過Logistic回歸分析得出匯率制度選擇與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高度之間存在高度相關(guān),但其內(nèi)在機(jī)理何在呢? 根據(jù)內(nèi)生經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論、羅斯托對于主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)之間關(guān)系的論述和統(tǒng)計分析,我們認(rèn)為:經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷和主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)更替都是由技術(shù)進(jìn)步所內(nèi)生決定,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高度的提升離不開主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)的更替。 根據(jù)弗農(nóng)的“產(chǎn)品循環(huán)說”和赤松要的“雁行產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展形態(tài)說”,主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)更替在世界范圍內(nèi)遵循了由發(fā)達(dá)國家向次發(fā)達(dá)國家再向發(fā)展中國家的轉(zhuǎn)移過程。比較優(yōu)勢理論、特定要素模型、要素比例理論和規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)理論是現(xiàn)有的解釋一國對外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)的主要理論,從靜態(tài)時點上解釋貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu),所隱含的意義是:進(jìn)出口商品是特定要素和要素稟賦的載體,一個國家實際上是在輸出和引進(jìn)特定要素和要素稟賦。雁行產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展形態(tài)說和產(chǎn)品循環(huán)說是連接主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移和進(jìn)出口結(jié)構(gòu)的主要理論,從動態(tài)時間上解釋貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)問題。 將相對靜態(tài)的特定要素和動態(tài)的主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移相融合,揭示出發(fā)展中國家與發(fā)達(dá)國家在進(jìn)出口商品上的互補(bǔ)性。同時,發(fā)展中國家的出口商品在發(fā)達(dá)國家市場上面對的應(yīng)該是一個完全競爭或近似于完全競爭的市場。而發(fā)達(dá)國家的出口商品在發(fā)展中國家面對的應(yīng)該是一個完全壟斷、近似完全壟斷或者壟斷競爭的市場。這種進(jìn)出口商品的市場格局對發(fā)展中國家的出口商和政府都有著不可消除的影響,從而,這種影響就必然反映在對匯率制度選擇的態(tài)度上。 以產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)為出發(fā)點分析匯率制度選擇,實際上就是從實體經(jīng)濟(jì)角度來考慮匯率制度選擇問題,這直接導(dǎo)致了對一國金融部門的忽略。在匯率制度選擇的路徑選擇上,對一國金融部門的忽略等同于對資本與金融賬戶的忽略。對于發(fā)展中國家來說,在資本與金融賬戶沒有開放的條件下,毫無疑問,匯率制度的選擇取決于經(jīng)常賬戶的影響,也就是實體經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響;在資本與金融賬戶已經(jīng)開放的條件下,由于本位貨幣不可能作為世界貨幣和預(yù)算約束的存在,在較長時期內(nèi),資本與金融賬戶的余額受制于經(jīng)常賬戶余額。在匯率制度選擇過程中,資本與金融賬戶處于從屬地位,經(jīng)常賬戶處于主導(dǎo)地位。 在做了假設(shè)條件以后,假定世界上只存在兩個極端國家,一個是處于發(fā)展初期的國家,一個是極端發(fā)達(dá)的國家。通過對發(fā)展中國家進(jìn)出口產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)的分析,可以得出:發(fā)展中國家更傾向于選擇管理多于浮動的非自由浮動的匯率制度,發(fā)展中國家由非自由浮動匯率制度向自由浮動匯率制度轉(zhuǎn)換的時間進(jìn)程由產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高度差距的縮小進(jìn)程所決定。 在一國范圍內(nèi),正是由于技術(shù)進(jìn)步導(dǎo)致了主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)的更替,反過來,主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)的更替又促進(jìn)了技術(shù)進(jìn)步。主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)更替促進(jìn)了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷又加快了主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)更替。同時,主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)更替影響了一國的進(jìn)出口結(jié)構(gòu),而進(jìn)出口結(jié)構(gòu)又影響了匯率制度選擇。那么,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷和匯率制度選擇之間的高度相關(guān)性就得到了解釋,匯率制度之間轉(zhuǎn)換的“拐點”不應(yīng)該是一個確定的“點”,而是一個長期的平滑過程。 從我國匯率制度發(fā)展變遷的歷史過程中也可以看出,我國一直處在效率與穩(wěn)定之間的兩難選擇。在我國的匯率制度選擇過程中應(yīng)該考慮產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和匯率制度之間的適配性問題。通過對我國主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)的分析,引申出我國出口產(chǎn)品在發(fā)達(dá)市場國家中的競爭性地位和發(fā)達(dá)國家對我國進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品在我國市場上的近似壟斷性的地位,那么,我國在匯率制度選擇上,理應(yīng)實行非自由浮動的匯率制度,而且這是一個長期策略。
[Abstract]:On the choice of exchange rate regime debate, originated from the metal standard from the stage of history and appearance of the currency credit period. After entering the Bretton Woods system, the fixed dollar pegged exchange rate regime in an absolutely dominant position, but with the gradual weakening of the dollar, choose floating exchange rate system increasingly, to the exchange rate system debate opened the curtain.
Under the Bretton Woods system, the world monetary system contains a floating exchange rate system instead of fixed exchange rate system impulse. Support the fixed exchange rate system are in a defensive position, support the floating exchange rate system in the attack situation. The historical conditions decide on the choice of exchange rate regime debate, more is to consider from the macro economic variables the exchange rate system and exogenous angle. At the same time, the exchange rate regime debate under the Bretton Woods system is mostly carried out among economists in developed countries, the views of economists will inevitably be affected by the main stream school on their point of view, and the subconscious to engage in debate as economists country analysis modeled the choice of exchange rate regime. In this way, a lead to the neglect of the choice of exchange rate regimes in developing countries, on the other hand, because of the economic structure in developed countries is similar, regardless of If it is "long term" or "short term", the choice of exchange rate system has little influence on them, and it is unavoidable to ignore the choice of "time limit" for the exchange rate system.
After entering the Jamaica system without exception, the developed market economy countries choose floating exchange rate system, and the vast majority of developing countries are pegged to choose a fixed exchange rate system, the intermediate exchange rate regime, managed floating exchange rate system, or simply give up its own currency, the currency.1997 Asian financial crisis directly to a developed country as the currency after the gradual rise of the "original sin" and "fear of floating", "theory" of developing countries will adopt fixed exchange rate system due to the developing countries of "currency mismatch" and "maturity mismatch" of "original sin" the original sin; the "fear of floating" is that developing countries chose a fixed exchange rate the system is lack of the fear of "Dutch disease" and the credibility of the government. Instead of saying "original sin" and "fear of floating" of development China family choose to find the fixed exchange rate system reason, but become reality condemnation of the developing countries to choose the fixed exchange rate regime. It is undeniable that the existing mainstream choice of exchange rate system theory is applied to the developing countries, there are a lot of unfairness.
Concentrating on one point, the limitation of the existing mainstream exchange rate regime selection theory is mainly due to the neglect of different countries' development degree, and neglecting the difference of development level. In fact, it ignores the most important factor that affects the choice of exchange rate regime in developing countries.
The development degree of differences between countries can be reflected by the difference of the industrial structure. At the same time, due to the abstract differences in the level of economic development concept, the use of industrial structure on the choice of exchange rate regime analysis possible. After using Logistic, two yuan of discrete explanatory variables econometric model regression Analysis on the industrial structure and the exchange rate system in this paper the high correlation between the choice of exchange rate regime and the industrial structure, the industrial structure the height of the country are more likely to choose a floating exchange rate system, the national industrial structure is the lower the more inclined to choose the non floating exchange rate system.
However, although there is a high degree of correlation between the exchange rate system selection and the height of the industrial structure through the Logistic regression analysis, what is the inherent mechanism of the exchange rate regime?
According to the theory of endogenous economic growth, Rostow on the relationship between leading industry and industry structure and discusses the statistical analysis, we believe that: economic growth, changes in industrial structure and the replacement of the leading industry are decided by technological progress in upgrading the industrial structure, the height cannot do without the substitution of leading industry.
According to Vernon's "product cycle" and pine to the "flying geese Industrial Development Patterns", the replacement of the leading industry in the world followed by developed countries to developed countries to transfer process in developing countries. The comparative advantage theory, specific factor model, factor proportion theory and scale economy theory is the main theory of the existing explain a country's foreign trade structure, trade structure explanation from the static point, the implied meaning is: import and export commodity is the carrier of specific factors and factor endowments, a country is in fact the output and the introduction of specific factors and factor endowments. Echelon industry form theory and product cycle theory is mainly the theory of industrial connection transfer and import and export structure, to explain the trade structure from the dynamic time.
The relative dominant industry specific factors of static and dynamic transfer of integration, reveals the developing and developed countries in the import and export commodities complementary. At the same time, developing countries' exports face in developed countries on the market should be a perfect competition or similar fully competitive market. While the developed countries export goods in in the face of the developing countries should be a complete monopoly, near monopoly or monopolistic competition in the market. The market structure of import and export commodities from developing countries and the government have influence, thus cannot be eliminated, this effect must be reflected in the choice of exchange rate.
Starting from the industrial structure to analyze the choice of exchange rate regime, is actually the real economy from the perspective of the choice of exchange rate system, which directly led to the neglect of financial sector. In the path of exchange rate system choice, the neglect of financial sector equivalent to the capital and financial account for developing countries ignored. Speaking in the capital and financial account is not open to the outside world, there is no doubt that the effect of the choice of exchange rate system depends on the current account, which is affecting the real economy; in the capital and financial account has been open conditions, because currency could not serve as a world currency and budget constraints in a longer period of time the balance of capital and financial account, subject to the current account balance. In the choice of exchange rate regime in the process of capital and financial account in a subordinate position, often in a dominant account Status.
After making assumptions, assuming that the two extreme countries only exist in the world, one is in the early stage of development of the country, is an extremely developed country. Through the analysis, the structure of import and export products to developing countries that developing countries tend to choose a more management than non free floating exchange rate system. The developing countries by non free floating exchange rate system to free floating exchange rate regime transition process is determined by the industrial structure to narrow the gap between the process.
Within a country, it is because of technological advances led to the replacement of the leading industries, in turn, leading industries and promote technological progress. The replacement of the leading industry to promote the transformation of industrial structure, industrial structure and speed up the replacement of the leading industry. At the same time, the replacement of the leading industry of the import and export structure of a country, and import and export structure also affects the choice of exchange rate system. Then, a high correlation between changes in industrial structure and the choice of exchange rate regime is explained, the exchange rate regime transition between the "inflection point" should not be a definite "point", but a long-term and smooth process.
From the historical development and evolution process of China's exchange rate system also shows that China has been in a dilemma between the efficiency and stability of choice. In considering the industrial structure and the exchange rate system matching problems should be in the process of China's exchange rate system. Through the analysis of the leading industries in China, a competitive position our export products in the developed market countries and developed countries similar to the monopolistic position, China's imports of products in the Chinese market, China's exchange rate system choice, should implement non floating exchange rate system, and this is a long-term strategy.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2008
【分類號】：F062.9;F830.7;F224

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6 丁志杰;;1999～2003年國際匯率體系變遷的統(tǒng)計分析[A];中國金融學(xué)會第八屆優(yōu)秀論文評選獲獎?wù)撐募痆C];2005年

7 劉偉;蔡志洲;張輝;;結(jié)構(gòu)高度化、經(jīng)濟(jì)效率化與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長——中國改革開放30年經(jīng)驗和啟示[A];社會主義經(jīng)濟(jì)理論研究集萃——紀(jì)念中國改革開放30周年（2008）[C];2008年

8 丁騁騁;;外部均衡與人民幣匯率制度:一個分析框架[A];2004年中國經(jīng)濟(jì)特區(qū)論壇：科學(xué)發(fā)展觀與中國的發(fā)展學(xué)術(shù)研討會論文集[C];2004年

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