本文關(guān)鍵詞： 碳權(quán)資產(chǎn) 市場法 特征因素 實證分析　出處：《首都經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：隨著全球氣候變暖問題的日益嚴重,在倡導低碳經(jīng)濟與可持續(xù)發(fā)展的背景下,各個國家越來越重視二氧化碳等溫室氣體的排放問題。碳排放權(quán)交易已在國內(nèi)外全面展開,碳權(quán)資產(chǎn)作為一種新型資產(chǎn),采取有效的方法對其正確估值,是反映和核算碳權(quán)資產(chǎn)公允價值以及交易碳權(quán)資產(chǎn)等經(jīng)濟行為中不可或缺的步驟,是調(diào)動企業(yè)碳權(quán)資產(chǎn)交易的積極性,實現(xiàn)企業(yè)碳減排目標的關(guān)鍵;也是關(guān)系到我國能否實現(xiàn)國家碳排放目標急需解決的問題。碳權(quán)資產(chǎn)與實體資產(chǎn)、其他類型無形資產(chǎn)等都有很大差別,其交易價格在很大程度上會受到區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平、行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)特點、社會環(huán)境因素等多方面的影響,可比案例之間存在著較大的差異,若僅從交易情況、交易日期等傳統(tǒng)資產(chǎn)修正的幾個方面進行調(diào)整不能完全體現(xiàn)其實際價值,因此需要根據(jù)碳權(quán)資產(chǎn)的特點,分析識別碳權(quán)資產(chǎn)的價值影響因素,作為利用市場法進行評估調(diào)整的特征因素,使市場法的應用更為科學合理便顯得尤為重要。本文首先對碳權(quán)資產(chǎn)的概念以及特征、碳權(quán)資產(chǎn)交易市場進行了分析,根據(jù)分析選取了目前體系機制發(fā)展較為成熟、規(guī)模最大、交易活動較為活躍的歐盟碳排放權(quán)交易體系EU ETS進行分析研究,其碳權(quán)資產(chǎn)交易價格(EUA)具有較好的代表性,然后結(jié)合碳權(quán)資產(chǎn)本身的特點以及近年來的價格變動趨勢,從宏觀、環(huán)境以及政策這三個方面對影響碳權(quán)資產(chǎn)價格的因素進行定性分析,在此基礎(chǔ)上選擇了煤炭價格、原油價格、天然氣價格、電力價格、歐洲工業(yè)生產(chǎn)指數(shù)等10個指標變量進行實證分析,通過因子分析和回歸分析,認為能源、經(jīng)濟發(fā)展狀況對碳權(quán)資產(chǎn)價格具有顯著影響,而天氣溫度以及政策因素短期內(nèi)并不能夠?qū)μ紮?quán)資產(chǎn)價格產(chǎn)生顯著影響。經(jīng)過對碳權(quán)資產(chǎn)價格影響因素的定性與定量分析,在評估的角度對碳權(quán)資產(chǎn)的特征因素進行分析界定,認為在運用市場法對碳權(quán)資產(chǎn)價值進行評估時需要考慮到地域經(jīng)濟水平因素、行業(yè)能源消費因素以及企業(yè)減排成本因素的影響,將上述三個因素作為碳權(quán)資產(chǎn)的特征因素,在選擇可比交易案例時考慮這幾個因素的影響,希望有助于選擇恰當?shù)目杀冉灰装咐?然后選擇適當?shù)闹笜藢Φ赜蚪?jīng)濟水平因素、行業(yè)能源消費因素以及企業(yè)減排成本因素在可比交易案例之間的差異進行修正,以期望市場法的應用更為科學,估值更為合理。
[Abstract]:With the global warming problem becoming more and more serious, in the context of advocating low-carbon economy and sustainable development. Each country pays more and more attention to the issue of greenhouse gas emissions such as carbon dioxide. Carbon emissions trading has been carried out all over the world. As a new type of assets, carbon rights assets are valued correctly by effective methods. It is an indispensable step in reflecting and accounting the fair value of carbon right assets and trading carbon right assets, which is the key to mobilize the enthusiasm of carbon right assets trading and realize the carbon emission reduction target of enterprises. It is also related to whether our country can achieve the national carbon emission target to solve the problem. Carbon right assets and physical assets, other types of intangible assets are very different. To a large extent, the transaction price will be affected by the level of regional economic development, the characteristics of industry structure, social environmental factors, and so on. There are great differences between comparable cases, if only from the trading situation. Some aspects of traditional asset correction, such as trading date, can not fully reflect its actual value. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze and identify the factors affecting the value of carbon right assets according to the characteristics of carbon right assets. As a characteristic factor of evaluation and adjustment by using market method, it is particularly important to make the application of market method more scientific and reasonable. Firstly, this paper focuses on the concept and characteristics of carbon right assets. According to the analysis of carbon rights asset trading market, the current system mechanism is more mature and the scale is the largest. The European Union carbon emission trading system (EU ETS), which is more active in trading activities, is analyzed and studied, and its carbon asset trading price is fairly representative. Then combined with the characteristics of carbon right assets and the price trends in recent years, from the macro, environmental and policy aspects of the impact of carbon asset prices qualitative analysis. On this basis, 10 index variables, such as coal price, crude oil price, natural gas price, electricity price, European industrial production index and so on, are selected for empirical analysis. Through factor analysis and regression analysis, energy is considered. Economic development has a significant impact on carbon asset prices. The weather temperature and policy factors can not have a significant impact on the price of carbon assets in the short term. After qualitative and quantitative analysis of the factors affecting the price of carbon assets. In the angle of assessment, the paper analyzes and defines the characteristic factors of carbon right assets, and thinks that the factors of regional economic level should be taken into account when using market method to evaluate the value of carbon right assets. Industry energy consumption factors and enterprise emission reduction cost factors, the above three factors as carbon asset characteristics, in the selection of comparable trading cases to consider the impact of these factors. It is hoped that it will help to select the appropriate comparable transaction case and then select the appropriate indicator for the factor of geographical economic level. Industry energy consumption factors and enterprise emission reduction cost factors are corrected in the comparable trading cases in order to expect more scientific application of market approach and more reasonable valuation.
【學位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X196

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