本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國區(qū)域能源價(jià)格對碳排放強(qiáng)度影響研究　出處：《中國礦業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 能源價(jià)格 碳排放強(qiáng)度 結(jié)構(gòu)突變模型 聯(lián)立方程模型 廣義矩估計(jì)

【摘要】：本文主要研究我國東、中、西三部分地區(qū)的能源價(jià)格對碳排放強(qiáng)度的金融驅(qū)動(dòng)影響。首先，分析了我國能源價(jià)格形成機(jī)制和碳排放強(qiáng)度的現(xiàn)狀，接著，運(yùn)用ADF檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)以及格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)各區(qū)域能源價(jià)格和碳排放強(qiáng)度是否存在單位根、協(xié)整和因果關(guān)系。然后利用結(jié)構(gòu)突變模型對各區(qū)域的能源價(jià)格和碳排放強(qiáng)度的結(jié)構(gòu)突變點(diǎn)的判斷以及檢驗(yàn)變結(jié)構(gòu)單位根和協(xié)整關(guān)系，并運(yùn)用Theil不等式系數(shù)對考慮結(jié)構(gòu)突變與沒有考慮結(jié)構(gòu)突變的模型進(jìn)行對比評價(jià)，進(jìn)而進(jìn)行能源價(jià)格對碳排放強(qiáng)度的金融驅(qū)動(dòng)理論研究并我國金融驅(qū)動(dòng)現(xiàn)狀作出分析，最后構(gòu)建金融驅(qū)動(dòng)關(guān)系聯(lián)立方程模型，通過廣義矩估計(jì)（GMM）估計(jì)聯(lián)立方程模型的系數(shù)。 現(xiàn)行的能源價(jià)格機(jī)制導(dǎo)致能源價(jià)格偏低，不能揮發(fā)能源價(jià)格引導(dǎo)正確的能源消費(fèi)傾向?qū)μ寂欧艔?qiáng)度降低的影響作用，另外，，我國各區(qū)域的碳排放總量不斷提高，增長速率較快，碳排放強(qiáng)度在逐年下降，但下降的速度較慢。 我國各區(qū)域能源價(jià)格和碳排放強(qiáng)度存在結(jié)構(gòu)突變點(diǎn)，我國東部地區(qū)能源價(jià)格均值和趨勢突變點(diǎn)都是2002年，碳排放強(qiáng)度均值突變時(shí)點(diǎn)為2002年，趨勢突變時(shí)點(diǎn)為2001；中部地區(qū)的能源價(jià)格結(jié)構(gòu)突變時(shí)點(diǎn)均值和趨勢突變點(diǎn)都為2002年，碳排放強(qiáng)度的均值和趨勢突變點(diǎn)都為1999年，西部地區(qū)能源價(jià)格的均值突變點(diǎn)為2001年，趨勢突變點(diǎn)為2002年，碳排放強(qiáng)度的均值和趨勢突變點(diǎn)都為2002年。在不考慮結(jié)構(gòu)突變的情況下，我國中西地區(qū)的能源價(jià)格和碳排放強(qiáng)度存在一階單整，不平穩(wěn)，西部地區(qū)序列平穩(wěn)，三個(gè)地區(qū)能源價(jià)格與碳排放強(qiáng)度不存在短期直接因果關(guān)系，東部和中部地區(qū)不存在長期協(xié)整關(guān)系，而我國西部地區(qū)存在長期協(xié)整關(guān)系。而在考慮結(jié)構(gòu)突變的情況下，二者不存在單位根且存在變結(jié)構(gòu)協(xié)整關(guān)系。通過對比評估，在考慮結(jié)構(gòu)突變的模型比沒有考慮結(jié)構(gòu)突變的模型更合理。 我國能源價(jià)格與對碳排放強(qiáng)度的金融驅(qū)動(dòng)路徑各地區(qū)由于本地區(qū)自身發(fā)展不同而存在異質(zhì)性，東部地區(qū)通過金融驅(qū)動(dòng)的規(guī)模效應(yīng)降低碳排放強(qiáng)度，中部地區(qū)通過金融驅(qū)動(dòng)的技術(shù)效應(yīng)和結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)共同作用達(dá)到碳減排，西部地區(qū)通過滯后的金融驅(qū)動(dòng)的結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)和技術(shù)效應(yīng)降低碳減排，并且我國東部、中部和西部的影響效果有著明顯的差異。 為了使我國能源價(jià)格對碳排放強(qiáng)度的金融驅(qū)動(dòng)作用更好的發(fā)揮，應(yīng)采取以下措施：完善能源價(jià)格定價(jià)機(jī)制，優(yōu)化能源價(jià)格對碳排放強(qiáng)度影響的金融驅(qū)動(dòng)機(jī)制，合理選擇能源價(jià)格對碳排放強(qiáng)度金融驅(qū)動(dòng)路徑。
[Abstract]:This paper mainly studies China's East, West three parts of the impact of energy prices on the carbon emission intensity of financial drive. First, analysis of the current situation, the energy price formation mechanism and carbon emission intensity in China then, using ADF test, cointegration test and Granger causality test Grainger regional energy prices and carbon emissions intensity the presence of unit roots, cointegration and causality. Then the structure using structure change model of regional energy prices and carbon emission intensity of point mutations as well as to determine the test variable structure unit root and cointegration, and using the Theil inequality coefficient to consider structure mutation and mutation model without considering the structure comparison and evaluation the price of energy carbon emission intensity of the financial theory research and drive China's financial situation driven analysis, finally construct the financial relationship driven simultaneous equation model, the generalized The moment estimation (GMM) is used to estimate the coefficient of the simultaneous equation model.
The current energy price mechanism leads to low energy prices, energy prices can not volatilize and guide the energy consumption on the impact of carbon emission intensity decreased, in addition, the total carbon emissions of each region of our country continues to improve, growth rate, carbon emission intensity decreased year by year, but the rate of decline is slow.
China's regional energy prices and carbon emission intensity has a turning point, Eastern China's energy prices mean and trend change point is 2002, the carbon emission intensity of the mean mutation point in time for the 2002, the trend of 2001 point mutation; mutation energy price structure in the central region of the mean and trend of mutation for 2002, mutation the mean and trend of carbon emission intensity at all in 1999, the mean energy prices in the western region mutation point of 2001, the trend of the mutation mutation in 2002, mean and trend of carbon emission intensity at all for 2002. Without considering the structure mutation under the condition of China's western region energy prices and carbon emissions intensity a single whole, not smooth, the western region sequence of smooth, three areas of energy prices and carbon emission intensity in the short term does not exist a direct causal relationship, long-term cointegration relationship does not exist in the eastern and central regions, However, there is a long-run cointegration relationship in the western region of China. When considering the structural change, there is no unit root and there is a variable structure cointegration relationship between the two. By comparison and evaluation, it is more reasonable to consider the structural catastrophe model than the one without considering the structural catastrophe.
China's energy price and carbon emission intensity of each region and financial drive path heterogeneity because of the region's development, the eastern region to reduce carbon emissions intensity through the scale effect of financial drive, the central region through the effect of financial technology driven and structure effect together to reduce carbon emissions, carbon emission reduction through the effect of financial structure drive and technology lag effect in the western region and the eastern part of our country, the effect of the central and western regions have obvious differences.
In order to make our energy price on carbon emission intensity of the financial driving role to play better, we should take the following measures: to improve the energy pricing mechanism, optimization of energy price on carbon emission intensity of the impact of financial driving mechanism, a reasonable choice of energy price on carbon emission intensity of financial drive path.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國礦業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F764.1;X196

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 帥通;袁雯;;上海市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和能源結(jié)構(gòu)的變動(dòng)對碳排放的影響及應(yīng)對策略[J];長江流域資源與環(huán)境;2009年10期

2 王俊松;賀燦飛;;能源消費(fèi)、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與中國CO_2排放量變化——基于LMDI方法的分解分析[J];長江流域資源與環(huán)境;2010年01期

3 趙成柏;毛春梅;;基于ARIMA和BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)組合模型的我國碳排放強(qiáng)度預(yù)測[J];長江流域資源與環(huán)境;2012年06期

4 王桂新;武俊奎;;城市規(guī)模與空間結(jié)構(gòu)對碳排放的影響[J];城市發(fā)展研究;2012年03期

5 李松臣;張世英;;農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的變結(jié)構(gòu)協(xié)整關(guān)系研究[J];當(dāng)代經(jīng)濟(jì)管理;2006年03期

6 朱永彬;王錚;龐麗;王麗娟;鄒秀萍;;基于經(jīng)濟(jì)模擬的中國能源消費(fèi)與碳排放高峰預(yù)測[J];地理學(xué)報(bào);2009年08期

7 胡宗義;劉亦文;;能源要素價(jià)格改革對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的影響分析——基于一個(gè)動(dòng)態(tài)可計(jì)算一般均衡(CGE)模型[J];系統(tǒng)工程;2009年11期

8 何小鋼;張耀輝;;中國工業(yè)碳排放影響因素與CKC重組效應(yīng)——基于STIRPAT模型的分行業(yè)動(dòng)態(tài)面板數(shù)據(jù)實(shí)證研究[J];中國工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì);2012年01期

9 林伯強(qiáng);蔣竺均;;中國二氧化碳的環(huán)境庫茲涅茨曲線預(yù)測及影響因素分析[J];管理世界;2009年04期

10 趙敏;張衛(wèi)國;俞立中;;上海市能源消費(fèi)碳排放分析[J];環(huán)境科學(xué)研究;2009年08期

本文編號：1368455