本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國(guó)國(guó)際貿(mào)易隱含碳SDA分析，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

中國(guó)國(guó)際貿(mào)易隱含碳SDA分析

Structure Decomposition Analysis of Embodied Carbon Emissions for China＇s International Trade

[1] [2] [3] [4]

WANG Lili, WANG Yuan, MAO Guozhu, ZHAO Peng （School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China）

天津大學(xué)環(huán)境科學(xué)與工程學(xué)院,天津300072

文章摘要：本文基于簡(jiǎn)化的非競(jìng)爭(zhēng)型可比性價(jià)值投入產(chǎn)出表，應(yīng)用投入產(chǎn)出分析法測(cè)算了2002年-2007年中國(guó)貿(mào)易隱含碳排放情況，發(fā)現(xiàn)中國(guó)的進(jìn)出口和凈出口隱含碳呈上升狀態(tài)。其中，2007年凈出1：2隱含碳（1928．93Mt）是2002年（615．12Mt）的3倍多。出口隱含碳的增加是導(dǎo)致中國(guó)凈出口隱含碳增加的主要原因。為了進(jìn)一步分析中國(guó)出口隱含碳增加的原因，本文應(yīng)用結(jié)構(gòu)分解分析法（SDA）將我國(guó)的出口碳排放分解為碳排放強(qiáng)度、中間投入結(jié)構(gòu)、出口結(jié)構(gòu)、出口總量四個(gè)方面。結(jié)果顯示：2002年～2007年除了CO2碳排放強(qiáng)度效應(yīng)為負(fù)值外（-20．00％），其余三種因素的效應(yīng)均為正值，，出口總量是導(dǎo)致隱含碳排放量增加的最大驅(qū)動(dòng)因素（106．58％），其次是中間投入結(jié)構(gòu)（10．80％），出口結(jié)構(gòu)的影響很小（2．62％）。對(duì)第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的SDA分析結(jié)果顯示：中國(guó)出口隱含碳大部分來(lái)自于重工業(yè)，其次是高科技工業(yè)、輕工業(yè)和其他制造業(yè)。對(duì)輕工業(yè)和其他制造業(yè)而言，出口結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)隱含碳排放量有抑制作用；對(duì)高科技工業(yè)而言，中間產(chǎn)品的投入結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)隱含碳排放量有抑制作用。

Abstr：Understanding the situation of embodied carbon emissions in Chinese international trade is important for international negotiation and obtaining more development rights in the future. Based on a non-competitive input-output table （2002-2007） with 42 sectors and energy consumption data, we calculated carbon emissions embodied in China＇s international trade between 2002 and 2007. Results show that CO2 emissions from import trade, export trade and net export trade increased from 2002 to 2007. Carbon emissions embodied in net export trade （1928.93 Mt） in 2007 were three times as large as carbon emissions embodied in net export trade （615.12 Mt） in 2002. Using structural decomposition analysis （SDA） to analyze increasing carbon emissions embodied in export trade, carbon emissions were decomposed into four effects： CO2 emissions intensity, structure of intermediate inputs, structure of exports and total volume of exports. Decomposition results show that, using 2002 as the base year, the effect of CO2 emissions intensity was negative, whereas the effect of the other three factors was positive. Among these four factors, the total volume of exports was found to be the largest contributor to carbon emissions, followed by the structure of intermediate inputs; the effect of structure of exports was very small. Most CO2 emissions embodied in export trade originated from secondary industries and our SDA showed that the embodied carbon emissions of exports mainly came from heavy industries, followed by high industries, light industries and other industries. In all periods, the largest factor driving the increase in embodied CO~ emissions in basic industry, light industry, energy industry and other industry was total export vol

文章關(guān)鍵詞：

Keyword：:International trade Input-output analysis Embodied carbon emissions SDA

課題項(xiàng)目：教育部人文社會(huì)科學(xué)基金：“中國(guó)貿(mào)易隱含碳轉(zhuǎn)移變化與國(guó)際產(chǎn)業(yè)分工”（編號(hào)：1IYJCZH177）;國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金：“基于全球生產(chǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的中國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易中CO2轉(zhuǎn)移排放研究”（編號(hào)：41201591）;國(guó)家社科項(xiàng)目：“全碳效率測(cè)度與區(qū)域生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)研究”（編號(hào)：12BJY025）.

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