本文關(guān)鍵詞：福泉廈住宅市場價格泡沫程度實證研究　出處：《華僑大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 房地產(chǎn)泡沫 住宅市場 指標(biāo)分析 狀態(tài)空間模型

【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)業(yè)是我國國民經(jīng)濟(jì)支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)，房地產(chǎn)市場能否健康發(fā)展深刻影響整個經(jīng)濟(jì)體系運(yùn)行。1998年住房分配改革以后全國范圍內(nèi)房價普漲，部分城市漲幅之大之快強(qiáng)烈刺激著人們的神經(jīng)，不少學(xué)者認(rèn)為我國房地產(chǎn)市場已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)泡沫。歷史上多次房價泡沫崩潰事件時刻提醒我們應(yīng)警惕房地產(chǎn)泡沫產(chǎn)生和膨脹,并盡量防止房地產(chǎn)泡沫破裂。 由于房地產(chǎn)市場存在區(qū)域差異，國家整體范圍內(nèi)的平穩(wěn)不能代表地區(qū)的平穩(wěn)，因此本文選擇福建省三大城市福州、泉州、廈門進(jìn)行城市層面的具體考察。房地產(chǎn)包括住宅、辦公樓、商業(yè)營業(yè)用房等，住宅是其中最重要的一部分且直接關(guān)系到國計民生，因此本文將住宅市場作為研究對象。實證檢驗使用年度數(shù)據(jù)，時間范圍為1999~2012年。文章在參考前人研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上首先給出房地產(chǎn)泡沫的定義并對其進(jìn)行了理論上的分析；對福泉廈三市基本情況簡要說明之后，選取6個指標(biāo)分析了各市住宅市場熱度；接著進(jìn)行變量序列平穩(wěn)性檢驗和協(xié)整檢驗，并在此基礎(chǔ)上建立表示住宅市場供、需的狀態(tài)空間模型，采用卡爾曼濾波估計系數(shù)并計算住宅基礎(chǔ)價值，隨后求出住宅實際價格對基礎(chǔ)價值的偏移率；最后通過檢驗偏移率的平穩(wěn)性來判斷泡沫是否存在，，若存在，泡沫程度即為偏移率的值。 指標(biāo)分析結(jié)果表明，福州、廈門房地產(chǎn)市場過熱，有可能已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)房地產(chǎn)泡沫；泉州熱度相對較低，但也存在出現(xiàn)泡沫的可能。進(jìn)一步實證檢驗結(jié)果顯示三市住宅市場均已出現(xiàn)不同程度的價格泡沫：福州市在2000~2006年間住宅價格被低估，2007年起開始出現(xiàn)泡沫并持續(xù)擴(kuò)張，2007~2012年間泡沫均值為31.65%；泉州市泡沫程度始終比較溫和，十三年間泡沫均值為8.8%；廈門市泡沫程度最為嚴(yán)重，十三年間均值達(dá)到103.97%。文章根據(jù)各市具體情況和住宅市場發(fā)展特征對價格泡沫進(jìn)行了分析解讀并在最后提出了相應(yīng)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry is the pillar industry of our national economy. Whether the real estate market can develop healthily or not will deeply affect the operation of the whole economic system. The rapid increase in some cities strongly stimulates people's nerves. Many scholars believe that there has been a bubble in the real estate market in China. Many times in the history of housing bubble collapse events remind us that we should be on guard against the emergence and expansion of the real estate bubble and try to prevent the real estate bubble from bursting. Because there are regional differences in the real estate market, the overall stability of the country can not represent the stability of the region, so this paper chooses the three cities of Fujian Province Fuzhou, Quanzhou. Xiamen carries on the city level concrete inspection. The real estate includes the residence, the office building, the commercial business room and so on, the residence is one of the most important parts and directly relates to the national economy and the people's livelihood. Therefore, this paper takes the housing market as the research object. The empirical test uses annual data. The time range is from 1999 to 2012. Based on the previous research results, this paper first gives the definition of real estate bubble and analyzes it theoretically. After briefly explaining the basic situation of three cities of Fuquan and Xiamen, this paper selects 6 indexes to analyze the heat of housing market in each city. Then, the stationary test and cointegration test of variable sequence are carried out, and on this basis, the state space model is established to represent the supply and demand of housing market, and the Kalman filter is used to estimate the coefficient and calculate the value of housing foundation. Then the deviation rate of the real house price to the basic value is obtained. Finally, the existence of foam is judged by checking the smoothness of migration rate, and if it exists, the degree of foam is the value of migration rate. The result of the index analysis shows that the real estate market in Fuzhou and Xiamen is overheated and there may be a real estate bubble. The heat of Quanzhou is relatively low. But there is also the possibility of bubble. Further empirical test results show that the three cities housing market has appeared different degrees of price bubble: Fuzhou City in 20002006 housing prices are undervalued. In 2007, bubbles began to appear and continued to expand. The average value of bubbles in 2007 and 2012 was 31.65; The degree of foam in Quanzhou was always mild, and the average value of bubble was 8.8% in 13 years. The degree of foam in Xiamen is the most serious. The average value reached 103.97 in 13. According to the specific situation of each city and the characteristics of housing market development, this paper analyzes and interprets the price bubble and puts forward corresponding policy suggestions at the end.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華僑大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23;F224

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