本文關(guān)鍵詞：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、收入分配與貧富分化——基于DCGE模型的房地產(chǎn)價格上漲效應(yīng)研究，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、收入分配與貧富分化——基于DCGE模型的房地產(chǎn)價格上漲效應(yīng)研究

Research of Housing Price Rising Effects Based on DCGE： Economic Growth, Income Distribution and Wealth Gap Widening

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Yuan Pengfei and Feng Lei （Research Institute of Statistical Sciences, NBS）

國家統(tǒng)計局統(tǒng)計科學(xué)研究所,100826

文章摘要：本文基于動態(tài)視角，構(gòu)建DCGE模型并引入存量住房資產(chǎn)，對房價上漲的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長效應(yīng)、收入分配效應(yīng)和貧富分化效應(yīng)進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)模擬。結(jié)果表明，房價上漲刺激下的房地產(chǎn)膨脹雖然能夠顯著提高經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率，，并帶動建筑業(yè)、重工業(yè)等行業(yè)快速增長，但卻會擠占農(nóng)業(yè)、輕工業(yè)和公共服務(wù)業(yè)的發(fā)展空間；房價上漲將推動政府、企業(yè)和居民三部門的收入增長，但不改變部門收入分配向政府傾斜的現(xiàn)狀；房價上漲會加劇城鎮(zhèn)居民家庭之間的收入分化，房產(chǎn)溢價的利益固化已成為近年來貧富差距惡化的主要原因。

Abstr：By building DCGE model and with the introduction of the stock of housing assets in the model, we investigate the effects of housing price rising on economic growth and income and wealth gap from a dynamic perspective. The main findings are as follows： Real estate expansion stimulated by housing price rising can significantly improve the rate of economic growth, and drive rapid growth in the construction industry, heavy industry and other industries, but it will also squeeze the space for development of agriculture, light industry and public services sector. Housing price rising will improve income growth of General government, corporations and households, while the unfair distribution that income tends to flow into the government has not been changed. Housing price rising will make the income differentiation among urban households more aggravated, and wealth accumulation from real estate appreciation results in larger gap between rich and poor in recent years.

文章關(guān)鍵詞：

Keyword：:Housing Price Rising DCGE The Stock of Housing Assets Economic Growth Income and Weahh Gap

課題項目：感謝國家自然科學(xué)基金（批準(zhǔn)號：71103046）的資助,感謝對外經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)魏巍賢教授、王飛教授,廈門大學(xué)林伯強(qiáng)教授等的建設(shè)性意見,感謝牟敦國、何曉萍、姚昕、湯向俊在本文寫作過程中給予的幫助.特別感謝兩位匿名審稿人的寶貴建議,感謝第十四屆中國青年經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)者論壇“政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)與中國特色經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展理論和政策研究”分論壇專家學(xué)者的評論意見.當(dāng)然,自負(fù)文責(zé).

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、收入分配與貧富分化——基于DCGE模型的房地產(chǎn)價格上漲效應(yīng)研究，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。