本文選題：能源 + 環(huán)境��； 參考：《中國人口·資源與環(huán)境》2017年05期

【摘要】：中國承諾將于2030年左右使單位國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降60%—65%,排放總量達(dá)到峰值并爭取盡早實(shí)現(xiàn)。我國目前的碳排放主要來自工業(yè)、交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)和建筑業(yè),其中建筑業(yè)碳排放約40%,所占比重最大,而高達(dá)550億m2的存量住宅能耗和排放是建筑業(yè)碳排放的主力。住宅建筑節(jié)能是關(guān)系到我國建筑業(yè)節(jié)能減排目標(biāo)能否順利實(shí)現(xiàn)的重要因素,是我國節(jié)能減排工作的重要領(lǐng)域。構(gòu)建一個(gè)可用于衡量住宅建筑節(jié)能對資源環(huán)境及經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展影響的可計(jì)算模型是推動(dòng)住宅建筑節(jié)能工作的重要基礎(chǔ)。本文嘗試以CGE標(biāo)準(zhǔn)模型為基礎(chǔ),依次對住宅建筑生產(chǎn)模塊、污染排放模塊、節(jié)能住宅建筑模塊、動(dòng)態(tài)模塊和環(huán)境福利模塊進(jìn)行詳細(xì)構(gòu)建說明。在四方面對標(biāo)準(zhǔn)模型進(jìn)行擴(kuò)展:第一,將生產(chǎn)要素?cái)U(kuò)展為資本、勞動(dòng)和能源要素束,能源要素束被深化分解為清潔能源與非清潔能源束,然后再予深化細(xì)化;第二,依據(jù)差異的貿(mào)易伙伴將進(jìn)出口細(xì)化為差異的國家和地區(qū);第三,將建筑污染排放作為一個(gè)特殊部門,建立建筑污染排放模塊,納入到CGE模型中,并將污染要素納入到效應(yīng)函數(shù)中;第四,依據(jù)資本增長模型,建立動(dòng)態(tài)模塊。通過將住宅建筑節(jié)能作為變量擴(kuò)展到標(biāo)準(zhǔn)CGE模型的方法,構(gòu)建了住宅建筑節(jié)能CGE擴(kuò)展模型。借助該擴(kuò)展模型,可以研究非節(jié)能建筑約束、外部節(jié)能建筑與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的內(nèi)在關(guān)系,進(jìn)而破解非節(jié)能建筑約束、外部節(jié)能建筑與住宅建筑節(jié)能快速發(fā)展之間難以協(xié)調(diào)的矛盾。在本文研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,可進(jìn)一步建立相應(yīng)的社會(huì)核算矩陣(SAM),并對各種函數(shù)的參數(shù)估計(jì)和敏感性檢驗(yàn)進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。
[Abstract]:China is committed to reducing carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product by 60 to 65 per unit of GDP by 2030 or so, peaking emissions and striving to achieve them as soon as possible. China's current carbon emissions mainly come from industry, transportation and construction industry, among which the construction industry carbon emissions are about 40, accounting for the largest proportion, and up to 55 billion m2 of residential energy consumption and emissions are the main carbon emissions of the construction industry. Energy saving in residential buildings is an important factor related to the smooth realization of energy saving and emission reduction targets in China's construction industry and an important field of energy saving and emission reduction work in China. To construct a computable model which can be used to measure the impact of energy conservation in residential buildings on resources, environment and economic development is an important basis for promoting energy conservation in residential buildings. Based on the CGE standard model, this paper attempts to explain the production module of residential building, the pollution emission module, the energy-saving residential building module, the dynamic module and the environmental welfare module in turn. The standard model is extended in four aspects: first, the factors of production are expanded into capital, labor and energy element bundles, the energy factor bundles are decomposed into clean energy and non-clean energy bundles, and then further refined; second, According to the different trading partners, import and export are classified into different countries and regions. Thirdly, building pollution emissions as a special sector are built into the CGE model. The pollution factor is incorporated into the effect function. Fourthly, the dynamic module is established according to the capital growth model. By extending the energy efficiency of residential buildings to the standard CGE model, the CGE expansion model of residential building energy saving is constructed. With the help of the extended model, we can study the internal relationship between the non-energy-saving building constraints, the external energy-efficient building and economic growth, and then solve the non-energy-saving building constraints. The contradiction between external energy-saving building and residential building energy-saving is difficult to coordinate. On the basis of the research results in this paper, the corresponding social accounting matrix can be further established, and the parameter estimation and sensitivity test of various functions can be empirically analyzed.
【作者單位】： 同濟(jì)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：上海市科技發(fā)展基金課題“特大型城市低碳化的系統(tǒng)結(jié)構(gòu)研究”(批準(zhǔn)號(hào):10692103000)
【分類號(hào)】：TU241.91
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本文編號(hào)：2019819