本文選題：國際工程項目 + 風險關聯(lián)　； 參考：《河北工程大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著“走出去”步伐的加快,中國與世界其他國家的關系變得越來越密切,國際工程項目已經(jīng)成為中國進行國際經(jīng)濟與技術合作的重要組成部分。與一般傳統(tǒng)的國內(nèi)工程項目相比,國際工程項目風險之間存在著更強的關聯(lián)性,選擇的應對策略是否合適對項目的影響更大。因而,要加強對國際工程項目的風險管理,在對國際工程項目的風險進行評價以及選擇風險應對策略時要重視風險關聯(lián),并且在應對策略選擇時要采用更加量化的方法,這樣才能夠幫助國內(nèi)承包商更好地進行風險管理,保證項目順利進行,最終達到項目的預期目標。本文從國內(nèi)承包商視角,基于可拓理論中的發(fā)散分析原理,立足于國際工程項目的各個階段,識別出國際工程項目的風險因素;選用考慮風險關聯(lián)的可拓評價法對識別出來的風險因素進行有效的評價,得出各層級風險因素所處的風險等級;針對評價結(jié)果中等級較高的風險因素,根據(jù)風險之間的雙風險關聯(lián)的特點,估計出風險發(fā)生的概率及風險損失的大小,有針對性地對每種風險提出預防、適應和組合這三種風險應對策略,通過建立決策模型來選擇最優(yōu)的風險應對策略。通過對A項目進行風險評價得到:環(huán)境風險和工程缺陷風險因素的風險等級為較高,要加以重視,項目整體風險等級為一般。評價結(jié)果與實際相符,驗證了可拓評價的可行性。對等級較高的兩種風險提出風險應對策略,通過輸入決策模型得到:通過采取組合策略可將兩種風險的風險概率降低且花費的成本小于該項目可以承擔風險成本最小值,故所選擇的應對策略最優(yōu)且決策模型是有效的,該模型可為今后的國際工程項目應對策略選擇提供決策支持。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of "going out", the relationship between China and other countries in the world has become more and more close, and international engineering projects have become an important part of China's international economic and technical cooperation. Compared with the traditional domestic engineering projects, there is a stronger correlation between the risks of international engineering projects, and the impact of the appropriate coping strategies on the projects is greater. Therefore, to strengthen the risk management of international engineering projects, to evaluate the risks of international engineering projects and to select risk coping strategies, we should pay attention to risk correlation, and adopt more quantitative methods in the choice of coping strategies. Only in this way can the domestic contractor better carry out the risk management, ensure the project to proceed smoothly, and finally achieve the expected goal of the project. Based on the divergence analysis principle of extension theory, this paper identifies the risk factors of international engineering projects from the perspective of domestic contractors, based on the various stages of international engineering projects. The extension evaluation method considering risk correlation is selected to evaluate the identified risk factors effectively, and the risk grade of each level risk factor is obtained, aiming at the higher grade risk factors in the evaluation results. According to the characteristics of double risk correlation between risks, the probability of risk occurrence and the magnitude of risk loss are estimated, and three risk coping strategies, namely, prevention, adaptation and combination, are proposed for each risk. A decision model is established to select the optimal risk response strategy. Through the risk evaluation of project A, it is concluded that the risk grade of environmental risk and engineering defect risk factor is higher, we should pay attention to it, and the overall risk grade of the project is general. The evaluation results are in agreement with the practice, and the feasibility of extension evaluation is verified. A risk response strategy is proposed for two kinds of high grade risks, which is obtained by input decision model: the risk probability of the two risks can be reduced by adopting the combination strategy and the cost of the project is less than the minimum value of the project's risk cost. Therefore, the optimal coping strategy is chosen and the decision model is effective. The model can provide decision support for the international project response strategy selection in the future.
【學位授予單位】：河北工程大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TU71

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