發(fā)布時間：2018-04-25 07:34

  本文選題：項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險管理 + 結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型��； 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)(北京)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：為滿足我國經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會、環(huán)境可持續(xù)發(fā)展對電力輸配的要求,近年來,我國開始加快電網(wǎng)的建設(shè)改造步伐,尤其是配網(wǎng)節(jié)能改造。配網(wǎng)節(jié)能改造項(xiàng)目往往具有投資規(guī)模大、建設(shè)周期長以及技術(shù)要求高等特征,并且受外部經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境和自然條件影響很大,導(dǎo)致項(xiàng)目存在較大風(fēng)險。當(dāng)前,我國項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險管理管理機(jī)制還不完善,配網(wǎng)節(jié)能改造項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險識別與評價難度較大;因此,研究配網(wǎng)節(jié)能改造項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險管理對有效控制電網(wǎng)建設(shè)風(fēng)險具有重要實(shí)踐意義。為此,本文以廊坊供電公司配網(wǎng)節(jié)能改造項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險管理為研究對象,研究探索項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險管理在我國配網(wǎng)節(jié)能改造項(xiàng)目中的應(yīng)用和發(fā)展。本文回顧總結(jié)了國內(nèi)外項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險管理研究的最新動態(tài)和成果,從項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險識別、評價以及應(yīng)對與監(jiān)控三個層面解構(gòu)了項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險管理理論體系。在此基礎(chǔ)上,以廊坊供電公司配網(wǎng)節(jié)能改造項(xiàng)目為例,研究了實(shí)際配網(wǎng)節(jié)能改造項(xiàng)目中的風(fēng)險管理問題。首先,從項(xiàng)目的外部環(huán)境、業(yè)主、承包和監(jiān)理四個維度識別分析了項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險因素,從項(xiàng)目決策、準(zhǔn)備、施工和運(yùn)營四個階段對項(xiàng)目面臨的風(fēng)險進(jìn)行了識別分析;其次,基于結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型理論方法,分別構(gòu)建了項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險因素影響評價模型和項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險評價模型;然后,通過項(xiàng)目數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)研,分別對廊坊供電公司配網(wǎng)節(jié)能改造項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險因素影響情況和項(xiàng)目不同階段風(fēng)險分布進(jìn)行了科學(xué)評價,并基于風(fēng)險因素影響情況及不同階段的項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險解析了廊坊供電公司配網(wǎng)節(jié)能改造項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險決策;最后,基于項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險因素影響情況和項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險分布的評價結(jié)果分析,給出了廊坊供電公司配網(wǎng)節(jié)能改造項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險應(yīng)對策略與措施,并制定了項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險監(jiān)控流程及措施。基于上述研究,本文運(yùn)用結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型理論構(gòu)建得出了項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險因素影響評價模型和項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險評價模型,并對廊坊供電公司配網(wǎng)節(jié)能改造項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險因素影響情況及項(xiàng)目不同階段的風(fēng)險進(jìn)行了科學(xué)評價。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):(1)廊坊供電公司配網(wǎng)節(jié)能改造項(xiàng)目通過節(jié)能效益分享型合同能源管理模式組織實(shí)施,業(yè)主(即供電公司)能夠?qū)㈨?xiàng)目風(fēng)險轉(zhuǎn)移給承擔(dān)單位(即節(jié)能服務(wù)公司),并依靠節(jié)能服務(wù)公司在配網(wǎng)節(jié)能改造項(xiàng)目中的資金、技術(shù)及管理優(yōu)勢,從而有效的規(guī)避項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險。(2)在該實(shí)施模式下,項(xiàng)目承包風(fēng)險因素和項(xiàng)目監(jiān)理風(fēng)險因素對項(xiàng)目影響較大,需要重點(diǎn)監(jiān)控相關(guān)風(fēng)險因素,減小由此帶來的項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險。(3)在廊坊供電公司配網(wǎng)節(jié)能改造項(xiàng)目全過程中,項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險呈現(xiàn)先增大后減小的趨勢,且在項(xiàng)目施工階段風(fēng)險達(dá)到最大;因此,在項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險管理中,需要對項(xiàng)目施工階段的風(fēng)險進(jìn)行重點(diǎn)監(jiān)控。
[Abstract]:In order to meet the requirements of sustainable development of economy, society and environment in China, in recent years, China has begun to speed up the pace of power grid construction and transformation, especially the energy-saving transformation of distribution network. Distribution network energy-saving reconstruction projects are often characterized by large scale of investment, long construction cycle and high technical requirements, and are greatly affected by the external economic environment and natural conditions, resulting in a large risk of the project. At present, the management mechanism of project risk management in our country is not perfect, so it is difficult to identify and evaluate the risk of energy-saving transformation project of distribution network. It is of great practical significance to study the risk management of distribution network energy saving reconstruction project for effectively controlling the power network construction risk. Therefore, this paper studies the application and development of the project risk management in the distribution network energy-saving transformation project of Langfang Power supply Company. This paper reviews and summarizes the latest developments and achievements of research on project risk management at home and abroad, and deconstructs the theoretical system of project risk management from three aspects: project risk identification, evaluation and response and monitoring. On this basis, the risk management problems in the actual distribution network energy saving renovation project are studied with the example of the distribution network energy saving renovation project of Langfang Power supply Company. Firstly, the risk factors of the project are identified and analyzed from the four dimensions of external environment, owner, contract and supervision, and the risk of the project is identified and analyzed from the four stages of project decision, preparation, construction and operation. Based on the theory and method of structural equation model, the impact evaluation model of project risk factors and project risk evaluation model are constructed, and then, through the research of project data, The influence of risk factors and risk distribution in different stages of the distribution network energy saving renovation project in Langfang Power supply Company are evaluated scientifically. And based on the risk factors and different stages of the project risk analysis Langfang power supply company distribution network energy-saving transformation project risk decision-making; finally, based on the project risk factors and project risk distribution evaluation results analysis, The strategies and measures of energy saving transformation project of distribution network in Langfang Power supply Company are given, and the project risk monitoring flow and measures are established. Based on the above research, this paper constructs the project risk factor impact evaluation model and the project risk evaluation model by using the structural equation model theory. The influence of risk factors on distribution network energy saving renovation project of Langfang Power supply Company and the risk of different stages of the project are evaluated scientifically. The research found that the energy saving renovation project of distribution network of Langfang Power supply Company was organized and implemented through the energy-saving benefit sharing contract energy management model. The owner (that is, the power supply company) can transfer the project risk to the undertaking unit (that is, the energy-saving service company), and rely on the capital, technology and management advantages of the energy-saving service company in the distribution network energy-saving transformation project, In this implementation mode, the project contract risk factors and project supervision risk factors have a great impact on the project, so it is necessary to focus on monitoring the relevant risk factors. In the whole process of energy saving transformation project of distribution network of Langfang power supply company, the risk of the project increases first and then decreases, and the risk reaches the maximum in the project construction phase; therefore, in the project risk management, It is necessary to focus on the risk monitoring during the construction phase of the project.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.61;TU71

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