發(fā)布時間：2018-04-25 07:34

  本文選題：項目風險管理 + 結構方程模型　； 參考：《華北電力大學(北京)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：為滿足我國經(jīng)濟、社會、環(huán)境可持續(xù)發(fā)展對電力輸配的要求,近年來,我國開始加快電網(wǎng)的建設改造步伐,尤其是配網(wǎng)節(jié)能改造。配網(wǎng)節(jié)能改造項目往往具有投資規(guī)模大、建設周期長以及技術要求高等特征,并且受外部經(jīng)濟環(huán)境和自然條件影響很大,導致項目存在較大風險。當前,我國項目風險管理管理機制還不完善,配網(wǎng)節(jié)能改造項目的風險識別與評價難度較大;因此,研究配網(wǎng)節(jié)能改造項目風險管理對有效控制電網(wǎng)建設風險具有重要實踐意義。為此,本文以廊坊供電公司配網(wǎng)節(jié)能改造項目的風險管理為研究對象,研究探索項目風險管理在我國配網(wǎng)節(jié)能改造項目中的應用和發(fā)展。本文回顧總結了國內(nèi)外項目風險管理研究的最新動態(tài)和成果,從項目風險識別、評價以及應對與監(jiān)控三個層面解構了項目風險管理理論體系。在此基礎上,以廊坊供電公司配網(wǎng)節(jié)能改造項目為例,研究了實際配網(wǎng)節(jié)能改造項目中的風險管理問題。首先,從項目的外部環(huán)境、業(yè)主、承包和監(jiān)理四個維度識別分析了項目風險因素,從項目決策、準備、施工和運營四個階段對項目面臨的風險進行了識別分析;其次,基于結構方程模型理論方法,分別構建了項目風險因素影響評價模型和項目風險評價模型;然后,通過項目數(shù)據(jù)調研,分別對廊坊供電公司配網(wǎng)節(jié)能改造項目的風險因素影響情況和項目不同階段風險分布進行了科學評價,并基于風險因素影響情況及不同階段的項目風險解析了廊坊供電公司配網(wǎng)節(jié)能改造項目風險決策;最后,基于項目風險因素影響情況和項目風險分布的評價結果分析,給出了廊坊供電公司配網(wǎng)節(jié)能改造項目風險應對策略與措施,并制定了項目風險監(jiān)控流程及措施�；谏鲜鲅芯�,本文運用結構方程模型理論構建得出了項目風險因素影響評價模型和項目風險評價模型,并對廊坊供電公司配網(wǎng)節(jié)能改造項目的風險因素影響情況及項目不同階段的風險進行了科學評價。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):(1)廊坊供電公司配網(wǎng)節(jié)能改造項目通過節(jié)能效益分享型合同能源管理模式組織實施,業(yè)主(即供電公司)能夠將項目風險轉移給承擔單位(即節(jié)能服務公司),并依靠節(jié)能服務公司在配網(wǎng)節(jié)能改造項目中的資金、技術及管理優(yōu)勢,從而有效的規(guī)避項目風險。(2)在該實施模式下,項目承包風險因素和項目監(jiān)理風險因素對項目影響較大,需要重點監(jiān)控相關風險因素,減小由此帶來的項目風險。(3)在廊坊供電公司配網(wǎng)節(jié)能改造項目全過程中,項目風險呈現(xiàn)先增大后減小的趨勢,且在項目施工階段風險達到最大;因此,在項目風險管理中,需要對項目施工階段的風險進行重點監(jiān)控。
[Abstract]:In order to meet the requirements of sustainable development of economy, society and environment in China, in recent years, China has begun to speed up the pace of power grid construction and transformation, especially the energy-saving transformation of distribution network. Distribution network energy-saving reconstruction projects are often characterized by large scale of investment, long construction cycle and high technical requirements, and are greatly affected by the external economic environment and natural conditions, resulting in a large risk of the project. At present, the management mechanism of project risk management in our country is not perfect, so it is difficult to identify and evaluate the risk of energy-saving transformation project of distribution network. It is of great practical significance to study the risk management of distribution network energy saving reconstruction project for effectively controlling the power network construction risk. Therefore, this paper studies the application and development of the project risk management in the distribution network energy-saving transformation project of Langfang Power supply Company. This paper reviews and summarizes the latest developments and achievements of research on project risk management at home and abroad, and deconstructs the theoretical system of project risk management from three aspects: project risk identification, evaluation and response and monitoring. On this basis, the risk management problems in the actual distribution network energy saving renovation project are studied with the example of the distribution network energy saving renovation project of Langfang Power supply Company. Firstly, the risk factors of the project are identified and analyzed from the four dimensions of external environment, owner, contract and supervision, and the risk of the project is identified and analyzed from the four stages of project decision, preparation, construction and operation. Based on the theory and method of structural equation model, the impact evaluation model of project risk factors and project risk evaluation model are constructed, and then, through the research of project data, The influence of risk factors and risk distribution in different stages of the distribution network energy saving renovation project in Langfang Power supply Company are evaluated scientifically. And based on the risk factors and different stages of the project risk analysis Langfang power supply company distribution network energy-saving transformation project risk decision-making; finally, based on the project risk factors and project risk distribution evaluation results analysis, The strategies and measures of energy saving transformation project of distribution network in Langfang Power supply Company are given, and the project risk monitoring flow and measures are established. Based on the above research, this paper constructs the project risk factor impact evaluation model and the project risk evaluation model by using the structural equation model theory. The influence of risk factors on distribution network energy saving renovation project of Langfang Power supply Company and the risk of different stages of the project are evaluated scientifically. The research found that the energy saving renovation project of distribution network of Langfang Power supply Company was organized and implemented through the energy-saving benefit sharing contract energy management model. The owner (that is, the power supply company) can transfer the project risk to the undertaking unit (that is, the energy-saving service company), and rely on the capital, technology and management advantages of the energy-saving service company in the distribution network energy-saving transformation project, In this implementation mode, the project contract risk factors and project supervision risk factors have a great impact on the project, so it is necessary to focus on monitoring the relevant risk factors. In the whole process of energy saving transformation project of distribution network of Langfang power supply company, the risk of the project increases first and then decreases, and the risk reaches the maximum in the project construction phase; therefore, in the project risk management, It is necessary to focus on the risk monitoring during the construction phase of the project.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學(北京)
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.61;TU71

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