本文選題：混凝土　切入點(diǎn)：彈性模量　出處：《混凝土》2017年10期

【摘要】：綜合考慮主觀不確定性和客觀不確定性的影響,建立了混凝土彈性模量的概率預(yù)測模型。首先基于210組齡期為28 d的混凝土試件的抗壓強(qiáng)度和彈性模量的試驗數(shù)據(jù),以混凝土抗壓強(qiáng)度作為控制參數(shù),建立了混凝土彈性模量的確定性預(yù)測模型;然后綜合考慮主觀不確定性和客觀不確定性的影響,結(jié)合貝葉斯理論和馬爾科夫鏈蒙特卡洛法,建立了混凝土彈性模量的概率預(yù)測模型;最后通過與試驗數(shù)據(jù)和傳統(tǒng)確定性預(yù)測模型的對比分析,驗證了概率預(yù)測模型的有效性和適用性。分析結(jié)果表明,該概率預(yù)測模型不僅可以合理描述彈性模量的概率分布特性,而且可以校準(zhǔn)傳統(tǒng)確定性預(yù)測模型的置信水平,具有良好的預(yù)測精度和適應(yīng)性。
[Abstract]:Considering the influence of subjective uncertainty and objective uncertainty, the probabilistic prediction model of elastic modulus of concrete is established.Firstly, based on the test data of the compressive strength and elastic modulus of 210 concrete specimens with a age of 28 days, the deterministic prediction model of the elastic modulus of concrete is established by taking the compressive strength of concrete as the control parameter.Then, considering the influence of subjective uncertainty and objective uncertainty, combining Bayesian theory and Markov chain Monte Carlo method, the probabilistic prediction model of concrete elastic modulus is established.Finally, the validity and applicability of the probabilistic prediction model are verified by comparing with the experimental data and the traditional deterministic prediction model.The results show that the probabilistic prediction model not only can reasonably describe the probability distribution of elastic modulus, but also can calibrate the confidence level of the traditional deterministic prediction model. It has good prediction accuracy and adaptability.
【作者單位】： 廣西大學(xué)土木建筑工程學(xué)院工程防災(zāi)與結(jié)構(gòu)安全教育部重點(diǎn)實驗室廣西防災(zāi)減災(zāi)與工程安全重點(diǎn)實驗室;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(51368006,51668008) 廣西重點(diǎn)實驗室系統(tǒng)性研究項目(2013ZDX06)
【分類號】：TU528
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本文編號：1705038