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基于邏輯回歸的砂土液化判別研究

發(fā)布時間:2018-03-11 06:10

  本文選題:地震 切入點:砂土液化 出處:《中國地震局工程力學研究所》2017年碩士論文 論文類型:學位論文


【摘要】:砂土液化是一種典型的地震災害現(xiàn)象,液化判別的概率表達是巖土地震工程研究的熱點問題之一,深入的探索砂土液化機理和發(fā)展考慮不確定性的液化判別方法,對工程場地條件的評價具有重要的理論意義的工程應用價值。本文以我國大陸地區(qū)已有的液化調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),利用邏輯回歸分析方法建立了砂土液化概率判別公式和給定液化概率的臨界標準貫入擊數(shù)的計算公式。通過對我國大陸地區(qū)和臺灣集集大地震液化調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)的回判和預判分析,并對比我國現(xiàn)行建筑抗震設(shè)計規(guī)范的判別結(jié)果,對本文給出的液化概率判別公式的適用性和判別結(jié)果的可靠性進行了檢驗。本文主要工作及研究成果如下:1.綜述了國內(nèi)外砂土液化的研究現(xiàn)狀?偨Y(jié)了砂土液化的震害現(xiàn)象,介紹了砂土液化機理和液化影響因素,對國內(nèi)外砂土液化判別方法的研究現(xiàn)狀進行了總結(jié)和評述,并對各判別方法的優(yōu)缺點及其適用性進行了簡要述評,指出了現(xiàn)有砂土液化判別方法存在的問題與不足,并針對這些問題進行了討論。2.收集整理和分析了我國大陸地區(qū)已有的液化調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)。介紹了我國大陸地區(qū)發(fā)生8次大地震的背景資料,收集整理了大陸地區(qū)已有的液化調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),并對現(xiàn)有液化數(shù)據(jù)的烈度、標準貫入擊數(shù)、砂層埋深和地下水位的分布特征進行了系統(tǒng)分析,為液化概率判別方法的建立提供了基礎(chǔ)資料。3.利用邏輯回歸建立了砂土液化概率判別公式。介紹了邏輯回歸模型的基本原理和應用領(lǐng)域,選取了烈度、標貫擊數(shù)、砂層埋深和地下水位4個參數(shù)作為液化評價指標,以我國大陸地區(qū)已有的液化調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),基于邏輯回歸方法建立了砂土液化概率判別公式,并給出了給定液化概率的臨界標準貫入擊數(shù)計算公式。通過回判和預判分析,并對比我國建規(guī)法的判別結(jié)果,對本文液化概率公式的可靠性進行了檢驗。4.采用臺灣集集大地震液化數(shù)據(jù)進行檢驗分析。介紹了臺灣集集大地震的背景資料,收集整理了我國臺灣集集大地震液化調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),并對液化數(shù)據(jù)的分布特征進行了系統(tǒng)分析。利用臺灣集集大地震液化數(shù)據(jù)作為應用實例,通過回判和預判分析,對本文液化概率公式的適用性和判別結(jié)果的可靠性進行了檢驗。結(jié)果表明,這一方法對臺灣集集大地震液化數(shù)據(jù)的總體判別結(jié)果略顯保守,但總體判別正確率較高,能夠較好的反映實際場地液化情況。
[Abstract]:Sand liquefaction is a typical earthquake disaster phenomenon. The probability expression of liquefaction discrimination is one of the hot issues in geotechnical seismic engineering. The evaluation of engineering site condition is of great theoretical significance in engineering application. This paper is based on the existing liquefaction investigation data in mainland China. By using the method of logical regression analysis, the discriminant formula of sand liquefaction probability and the calculation formula of critical standard penetration number of given liquefaction probability are established. In addition, the discriminant results of the current code for seismic design of buildings in China are compared. The applicability and reliability of the liquefaction probability discriminant formula given in this paper are tested. The main work and research results are as follows: 1.The present research situation of sand liquefaction at home and abroad is summarized, and the earthquake damage phenomenon of sand liquefaction is summarized. This paper introduces the liquefaction mechanism and influencing factors of sandy soil, summarizes and comments on the research status of sand liquefaction discrimination methods at home and abroad, and briefly reviews the advantages and disadvantages and applicability of each discriminant method. The problems and shortcomings of the existing liquefaction discrimination methods for sandy soil are pointed out. The data of liquefaction investigation in the mainland of China are collected and analyzed, and the background data of 8 large earthquakes in the mainland of China are introduced. The existing liquefaction investigation data in continental area are collected and sorted, and the intensity of the existing liquefaction data, the standard penetration number, the distribution characteristics of sand depth and groundwater level are systematically analyzed. The basic data for the establishment of liquefaction probability discriminant method are provided. 3. The discriminant formula of sand liquefaction probability is established by using logical regression. The basic principle and application field of logical regression model are introduced. Four parameters of sand bed burial depth and groundwater level are taken as indicators of liquefaction evaluation. Based on the existing liquefaction survey data in mainland China, the probability discriminant formula of sand liquefaction is established based on logical regression method. The calculation formula of critical standard penetration attack number for given liquefaction probability is given. Through the analysis of back judgment and pre-judgment, the discriminant results of our country's construction planning method are compared. The reliability of the formula of liquefaction probability is tested in this paper. Finally, the liquefaction data of Jiji earthquake in Taiwan are tested and analyzed. The background data of Jiji earthquake in Taiwan are introduced, and the survey data of liquefaction of Jiji earthquake in Taiwan are collected and sorted out. The distribution characteristics of liquefaction data are systematically analyzed. Using the liquefaction data of Jiji earthquake in Taiwan as an application example, through the analysis of back judgment and prediction, The applicability of the liquefaction probability formula in this paper and the reliability of the discriminant result are tested. The results show that the overall discriminant result of the liquefaction data of Jiji earthquake in Taiwan is slightly conservative, but the overall correct rate is higher. Can better reflect the actual site liquefaction situation.
【學位授予單位】:中國地震局工程力學研究所
【學位級別】:碩士
【學位授予年份】:2017
【分類號】:TU441;TU435

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