本文關(guān)鍵詞： EPC項(xiàng)目 施工階段 掙值法 進(jìn)度—成本預(yù)測 支持向量機(jī)模型　出處：《河北工程大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：在目前國際市場新形勢下,EPC總承包模式的實(shí)施逐步成為國內(nèi)建筑行業(yè)達(dá)到國際標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的重要途徑。但是,國內(nèi)總承包商在對項(xiàng)目成本和進(jìn)度控制上還是缺少理論和實(shí)踐經(jīng)驗(yàn),整體水平和綜合實(shí)力與國際先進(jìn)水平仍有很大差異。在市場競爭力存在很大的不足的情況下,對EPC項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度和成本集成管理直接決定了建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的成敗。因此有必要對EPC項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度和成本進(jìn)行整體管理預(yù)測,提高項(xiàng)目的經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會效益。本文圍繞EPC項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度和成本管理預(yù)測進(jìn)行研究。首先具體分析施工階段進(jìn)度和成本的關(guān)系以及相互影響的機(jī)理,介紹集成控制的基本理論和流程。通過在現(xiàn)有的建設(shè)工程施工階段的成本控制基礎(chǔ)上,提出了科學(xué)有效的控制措施和方法,同時將進(jìn)度—成本預(yù)測應(yīng)用于施工階段成本控制中。但是,在實(shí)際建筑工程進(jìn)度—成本預(yù)測的研究中發(fā)現(xiàn),傳統(tǒng)的預(yù)測方法存在不嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)以及預(yù)測精度不足等問題。所以本文先用EVM進(jìn)行數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)處理,得到績效指數(shù),進(jìn)而用支持向量回歸模型來進(jìn)行項(xiàng)目施工階段進(jìn)度—成本預(yù)測,為了得到更好地預(yù)測效果,用粒子群進(jìn)行參數(shù)優(yōu)化來對預(yù)測點(diǎn)以后緊鄰工程的進(jìn)度、成本績效指數(shù)進(jìn)行預(yù)測。最后將此預(yù)測模型應(yīng)用于EPC項(xiàng)目施工階段進(jìn)度—成本預(yù)測案例中,得到預(yù)測結(jié)果,將原始數(shù)據(jù)與預(yù)測數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行對比分析,從而驗(yàn)證該模型的可操作性和有效性,提高工程項(xiàng)目施工階段進(jìn)度—成本的管理水平。
[Abstract]:Under the new situation in the international market, the implementation of EPC general contracting mode has gradually become an important way for the domestic construction industry to meet the international standards. However, the domestic general contractor still lacks theoretical and practical experience in controlling the project cost and schedule. The overall level and comprehensive strength are still very different from the international advanced level. The integrated management of EPC project schedule and cost directly determines the success or failure of the construction project. Therefore, it is necessary to forecast the progress and cost of the EPC project as a whole. To improve the economic and social benefits of the project. This paper focuses on the prediction of EPC project schedule and cost management. Firstly, the relationship between schedule and cost in construction phase and the mechanism of mutual influence are analyzed. The basic theory and flow chart of integrated control are introduced. Based on the cost control in the construction stage of the existing construction project, the scientific and effective control measures and methods are put forward. At the same time, the schedule cost forecast is applied to the cost control in the construction stage. However, in the research of the actual construction progress cost forecast, it is found that, There are some problems in the traditional prediction methods, such as unrigorous prediction method and insufficient prediction precision, so this paper first uses EVM to preprocess data and get the performance index, and then uses support vector regression model to predict the schedule and cost of the construction phase of the project. In order to obtain better prediction effect, particle swarm optimization is used to predict the schedule and cost performance index of the project next to the prediction point. Finally, the prediction model is applied to the case of EPC project construction phase scheduling and cost forecasting. The prediction results are obtained by comparing the original data with the predicted data to verify the maneuverability and effectiveness of the model and to improve the management level of the schedule and cost in the construction phase of the project.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北工程大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TU723.3

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