發(fā)布時間：2018-01-08 19:16

  本文關鍵詞：基于集對分析法的鄭州城區(qū)供水安全評價　出處：《鄭州大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 供水安全 集對分析法 主成分分析法 篩選指標

【摘要】：水是城市的命脈,是人類社會發(fā)展的物質(zhì)基礎。近年來,城市化步伐顯著加快,居民對城市用水質(zhì)量提出了更高的要求,如果城市供水格局未及時跟上水資源需求,城市的發(fā)展建設就難以保障,城市供水安全已成為影響城市現(xiàn)代化建設和居民生活品質(zhì)的重要因素。目前,關于區(qū)域水安全研究較多、對城市供水安全研究較少,定性描述較多、定量描述較少,因此對城市供水安全評價顯得尤為重要。本研究將從城市供水系統(tǒng)的安全入手,研究城市供水流程,在分析鄭州市供水現(xiàn)狀的基礎上,構建了完善的城市供水指標體系,采用集對分析法(SPA)構建綜合評價模型,定量評價供水安全。以鄭州市城區(qū)為研究目標,對鄭州市城區(qū)2006-2014年的供水系統(tǒng)進行評價,選擇較為成熟的物元分析法進行結果對比分析,并對城市規(guī)劃中的2020年的供水系統(tǒng)安全等級進行預測評價,提出相關改進措施和建議,為鄭州市供水安全研究提供參考。(1)分析鄭州市城區(qū)供水現(xiàn)存問題。根據(jù)鄭州市供水相關統(tǒng)計資料、經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和趨勢等,分析了供水系統(tǒng)中存在一些問題與不足:地表水衰減,對外調(diào)水依賴性較大;地下水超采,可能會造成一連串的生態(tài)和環(huán)境問題;城市工業(yè)廢水和生活污水的排放量日益增多,可能會造成水源污染的現(xiàn)象。(2)鄭州市供水安全評價模型的構建及其求解。基于鄭州市供水現(xiàn)狀和主要供水環(huán)節(jié),選擇水源、凈水、輸水和用水四個環(huán)節(jié)作為指標體系的準則層,初步選擇27個指標,通過主成分分析(PCA)和相關性分析進行指標的篩選,最終確定出14個可以反映鄭州市供水安全的指標,構建評價指標體系,通過Statistical Product and Service Solutions(SPSS)軟件,計算各評價指標的權重,基于聯(lián)系數(shù)的集對分析(SPA)評價模型計算,確定鄭州市供水安全評價等級。(3)鄭州市供水安全評價結果的分析。通過集對分析評價模型計算表明,根據(jù)綜合聯(lián)系數(shù)對應的安全等級,2006-2014年鄭州市城區(qū)供水安全等級呈現(xiàn)逐漸上升的趨勢,2006-2008安全等級為Ⅳ級,2009-2013年安全等級上升到Ⅲ級,2014年的綜合聯(lián)系數(shù)為0.1719,安全等級達到Ⅱ級,處于較為安全的等級,選取物元分析法進行對照,評價結果與集對分析法基本相同,驗證該模型的實用性和可行性。同時,對規(guī)劃年2020年進行指標預測和等級評價,結果表明,2020年綜合聯(lián)系數(shù)為0.5320,供水安全等級為Ⅰ級,屬于非常安全等級,準則層中供水水源安全等級為Ⅱ級,其它均為Ⅰ級,由于南水北調(diào)、引黃等工程的投入使用,管網(wǎng)配套設施和節(jié)水設施的日益完善,水廠規(guī)模擴大、處理效率提高等,在整體上提高了鄭州市城區(qū)供水安全水平,也驗證了評價結果的合理性。(4)根據(jù)供水安全評價結果,提出了相應的改進措施和建議。供水水源準則層的安全等級在2006-2014年在Ⅲ~Ⅳ級間波動,預測2020年達到Ⅱ級,其中人均水資源量和水功能區(qū)達標率指標多年處于Ⅴ級,應加快邙山提灌站供水工程、�？谟S工程等工程的建設,開辟新的水源,增加供水能力,并保證水質(zhì)安全;凈水工程準則層的安全等級在2006-2014年逐漸上升,供水產(chǎn)銷差率指標安全等級偏低,應對水廠進行及時擴建和改造,推廣中水回用;輸水管網(wǎng)準則層的安全等級2006年為Ⅳ級,2014年為Ⅱ級,應積極完善管網(wǎng)布局,及時更換老舊管網(wǎng),增加供水管網(wǎng)設施建設;用戶用水準則層的安全等級在2006-2009年均處于Ⅴ級,之后安全等級有所提高,為滿足用戶用水需求,應加強總量控制與定額管理,加快水廠和節(jié)水工程的建設,充分調(diào)動居民的節(jié)水意識,引導居民節(jié)約用水。
[Abstract]:Water is the lifeline of the city, is the material basis for the development of human society. In recent years, the pace of city residents accelerated significantly, put forward higher requirements on the quality of city water, city water supply pattern if not timely with the water resources demand, the development of the city construction is difficult to guarantee the safety of water supply, the city has become an important factor affecting the city modernization the construction and living quality. At present, there are more studies on regional water security, the less of city safety water supply, more qualitative description, quantitative description of city water supply is less, so the safety evaluation is particularly important. This study will start from the city water supply system security, research on city water supply process, based on the analysis of the present situation of water supply in Zhengzhou city on the construction of the city water supply to improve the index system, using set pair analysis method (SPA) to construct the comprehensive evaluation model, quantitative evaluation of water supply safety in Zhengzhou city. District as the research object, to evaluate the water supply system for 2006-2014 years in Zhengzhou City, choose the more mature method of matter element analysis the results of comparative analysis, and water supply system security level of city planning in the 2020 forecast evaluation, puts forward relevant improvement measures and suggestions, provide a reference for the safety of water supply in Zhengzhou city. (1) analysis of the existing problems of urban water supply in Zhengzhou city. According to the relevant statistical data of water supply in Zhengzhou City, the economic and social development situation and trend analysis of water supply system, there are some problems and shortcomings: surface water attenuation, export water dependent greatly; the over exploitation of groundwater, may cause a series of ecological and environmental problems; industrial city waste water and sewage emissions increasing may cause water pollution phenomenon. (2) and for building water safety evaluation model of Zhengzhou city. Based on the water supply in Zhengzhou City The present situation and the main water supply link, choose water, water, water and water in four aspects as the criterion layer index system, the preliminary selection of 27 indicators, using principal component analysis (PCA) and correlation analysis of selecting indicators, determined 14 can reflect the Zhengzhou city water supply safety index, evaluation index system Product and Service, by Statistical Solutions (SPSS) software, the weight calculation of the evaluation index, analysis of connection number based on set (SPA) evaluation model, evaluation of water supply safety level of Zhengzhou city. (3) the results of analysis and evaluation of water security in Zhengzhou city. Through the set pair analysis and evaluation model calculation shows that, according to the safety the general level connection number corresponding to the 2006-2014 safety level of urban water supply in Zhengzhou city showed a gradual upward trend, the security level for the 2006-2008 grade, 2009-2013 security level rise to grade 2014. The number of years of comprehensive contact 0.1719, security level to level II, in a relatively safe level, select the matter-element analysis method were compared, and the evaluation results of set pair analysis method is basically the same, verify the feasibility and practicability of the model. At the same time, the index forecast and evaluation of planning in 2020. The results showed that 2020 comprehensive contact number is 0.5320, the water supply security level to the first level, which belongs to the very level of security, water supply security level in criterion layer to the second level, the other was grade I, due to water diversion, diversion project put into use, pipe network facilities and water saving facilities, water scale, treatment to improve the efficiency, improve the safety level of urban water supply in Zhengzhou city as a whole, also verified the rationality of the evaluation result. (4) according to the water safety evaluation results, propose appropriate measures and suggestions. Water supply standards The security level in 2006-2014 grade fluctuations, forecast in 2020 to grade II, the per capita water resources and water function zones compliance rate index in years of V-grade, should speed up the construction of Mangshan pumping station water supply project, Niukouyu diversion project and other projects to open up new sources of water, increase water supply capacity and, to ensure water quality and safety; safety grade water purification engineering criteria layer increased gradually in 2006-2014 years, water sales slip index security level is low, with water timely expansion and renovation, promotion of water reuse; water pipe network security rating criteria layer IV in 2006, 2014 to the second level, should actively improve the network layout the replacement of the old pipe network, timely, increase water supply pipeline facilities construction; water users the criterion level of security level in annual 2006-2009 at V-grade, after the security level was improved, to meet user demand, should be strengthened Total quantity control and quota management, speed up the construction of water works and water saving projects, fully mobilize the consciousness of water saving for the residents, and guide the residents to save water.

【學位授予單位】：鄭州大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TU991

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本文編號：1398358