【摘要】：作為信息化發(fā)展的重要產(chǎn)物,微博憑借其開(kāi)放、便捷等特征,使大眾在更廣泛的領(lǐng)域進(jìn)行交流成為可能,并在極短的時(shí)間內(nèi)完成了由產(chǎn)生到普及,再到重要輿論平臺(tái)的蛻變。而源于現(xiàn)實(shí)的社會(huì)事件,借微博平臺(tái)醞釀發(fā)酵、被意見(jiàn)領(lǐng)袖傳播散布、經(jīng)各類觀點(diǎn)碰撞交鋒,往往會(huì)引起話題內(nèi)容上的演變。在上述話題演變過(guò)程中,如何發(fā)現(xiàn)意見(jiàn)領(lǐng)袖并準(zhǔn)確衡量他們對(duì)信息傳播的作用和貢獻(xiàn)?如何量化度量博文的傳播影響?都是深入研究和分析話題及其脈絡(luò)的先決條件。本文在研究了大量已有工作的基礎(chǔ)上,從宏觀、微觀兩條線索進(jìn)行話題分析:首先,從宏觀上研究“話題相關(guān)意見(jiàn)領(lǐng)袖與話題間存在怎樣的時(shí)序關(guān)聯(lián)?”、“哪些意見(jiàn)領(lǐng)袖影響話題發(fā)展?”等問(wèn)題;在此基礎(chǔ)上,從微觀上研究“不同類型的博主主要發(fā)布何種內(nèi)容特征的博文?”、“不同內(nèi)容特征的微博會(huì)對(duì)話題造成何種影響?”等問(wèn)題。研究中采取實(shí)驗(yàn)和實(shí)證相結(jié)合的方式,以現(xiàn)實(shí)中的微博話題為例進(jìn)行了分析實(shí)驗(yàn)。相關(guān)工作和創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)如下:1)采集“南京打護(hù)士”話題有關(guān)微博數(shù)據(jù),結(jié)合事實(shí)情況分析了數(shù)據(jù)用于研究的可行性;基于話題中有限的用戶關(guān)系,采用一種通用簡(jiǎn)便的方法,找出了話題中存在的意見(jiàn)領(lǐng)袖;建立了“意見(jiàn)領(lǐng)袖在話題上的影響力”模型,和“話題熱度”模型,為后續(xù)工作提供了支撐。2)研究并實(shí)現(xiàn)了基于動(dòng)態(tài)時(shí)間彎曲(DTW)距離的博主影響力度量技術(shù)。在宏觀方面,基于DTW距離,區(qū)分不同的時(shí)間窗口和時(shí)間粒度,對(duì)“意見(jiàn)領(lǐng)袖在話題上的影響力時(shí)序”與“話題熱度時(shí)序”之間的距離進(jìn)行了度量,發(fā)現(xiàn)距離較小的兩者之間存在關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系,發(fā)現(xiàn)部分意見(jiàn)領(lǐng)袖在話題中起到了導(dǎo)控和推手作用,在宏觀上把握了話題發(fā)展脈絡(luò)。3)研究并實(shí)現(xiàn)了基于影響飽和度的關(guān)鍵微博發(fā)現(xiàn)技術(shù)。在微觀方面,分析了“轉(zhuǎn)發(fā)量”和“影響飽和度”兩種排序方式下微博的內(nèi)容特征,基于用戶轉(zhuǎn)發(fā)行為和影響覆蓋范圍,研究了“影響飽和度”的時(shí)序特征,提出了用于單條微博評(píng)價(jià)的“影響飽和度”模型;在此基礎(chǔ)上,基于特定話題,通過(guò)實(shí)驗(yàn)發(fā)現(xiàn)了“轉(zhuǎn)發(fā)量”和“影響飽和度”兩種排序方式下微博內(nèi)容上的較大區(qū)別和博主類型上的較大區(qū)別,從微觀上量化分析了其在話題中的不同作用。綜上,本文主要通過(guò)現(xiàn)實(shí)中網(wǎng)絡(luò)話題“南京打護(hù)士”等事件,利用DTW距離,研究了意見(jiàn)領(lǐng)袖和話題之間的相關(guān)性,從宏觀上分析了話題脈絡(luò);進(jìn)而引入了微博的“影響飽和度”概念,從“轉(zhuǎn)發(fā)量”和“微博影響飽和度”兩種視角,對(duì)話題作了微觀解構(gòu),為現(xiàn)有的話題分析方法作了有益補(bǔ)充。
[Abstract]:As an important product of information development, Weibo, with its characteristics of openness and convenience, makes it possible for the masses to communicate in more extensive fields, and in a very short period of time has completed the transformation from production to popularization, and then to an important platform of public opinion. However, the social events originated from reality, brewing and fermenting by Weibo platform, are disseminated by opinion leaders, and often lead to the evolution of topic content after various views collide with each other. In the course of the evolution of the above topics, how can opinion leaders be identified and accurately measured for their role and contribution to the dissemination of information? How to quantify the impact of blog posts? Both are prerequisites for in-depth research and analysis of topics and their context. Based on the study of a large number of existing work, this paper makes a topic analysis from two clues, macro and micro: first of all, from the macro point of view, "what is the temporal relationship between the opinion leader and the topic?" "which opinion leaders influence the development of the topic?" On the basis of this, we study "what kinds of blog posts are published by different types of bloggers?" and "what kind of influence will Weibo with different content characteristics have on the topic?" And so on. Taking Weibo topic as an example, the research adopts the method of combination of experiment and demonstration. The related work and innovation points are as follows: 1) collecting the data about Weibo on the topic of "Nanjing beating Nurses", and analyzing the feasibility of the data used in the study according to the facts; Based on the limited user relationship in the topic, a general and simple method is adopted to find out the opinion leaders in the topic. The "influence of opinion leaders on topic" model and "topic heat" model are established, which provide support for further work. 2) the technology of measuring the influence of bloggers based on dynamic time bending (DTW) distance is studied and implemented. At the macro level, based on the DTW distance, different time windows and time granularity are distinguished, and the distance between "opinion leaders' influence on topic timing" and "topic heat time series" is measured. It was found that there was a correlation between the two, and that some opinion leaders played a guiding and pushing role in the topic. 3) the key technology of Weibo discovery based on saturation is studied and realized. In microcosmic aspect, the content characteristics of Weibo under two sort modes of "forwarding quantity" and "influence saturation" are analyzed. Based on user forwarding behavior and influence coverage, the temporal characteristics of "influence saturation" are studied. The "influence saturation" model for the evaluation of single Weibo is put forward. On this basis, on the basis of specific topics, we find the great differences in content and types of bloggers under the two sorting methods of "forwarding quantity" and "influence saturation" through experiments. From the micro-quantitative analysis of its different roles in the topic. In summary, this article mainly through the reality network topic "Nanjing hits the nurse" and so on event, uses the DTW distance, has studied the opinion leader and the topic correlation, has analyzed the topic vein from the macroscopic; By introducing the concept of "influence saturation" put forward by Weibo, this paper makes a microscopic deconstruction of the topic from the perspectives of "forwarding quantity" and "Weibo's influence on saturation", which makes a useful supplement to the existing methods of topic analysis.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：國(guó)防科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TP393.092
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本文編號(hào)：2313335