基于agent社會圈子網(wǎng)絡的HIV傳播模型研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-09-12 17:01
【摘要】：本文建立了一個多agent系統(tǒng)和社會圈子網(wǎng)絡結合的模型,利用此模型研究模擬HIV病毒在注射吸毒人群這一高危人群中傳播擴散的過程。為防控HIV擴散提供決策參考。 HIV的傳播是世界上最重大的公共衛(wèi)生挑戰(zhàn)之一。世界各國對其開展廣泛的研究來尋求有效的防制措施。中國HIV的防治已初見成效,但在重點地區(qū)、重點人群中,各項防治措施仍需繼續(xù)加強。因此,深入研究HIV傳播的內在機制對社會及政府采取有效措施防控病毒有著重要的意義。 本文對基于多agent社會圈子網(wǎng)絡模型的HIV傳播仿真進行了多方面的研究。 首先,按照多agent系統(tǒng)和復雜網(wǎng)絡的結合機制,建立了多agent復雜網(wǎng)絡模型。為了更好地表示HIV傳播的社會網(wǎng)絡,使用社會圈子網(wǎng)絡來描述仿真所需的底層社會網(wǎng)絡,并且給agent增加動態(tài)性來模擬社會中人口流動和人際關系變化。 其次,提出了一個基于社會圈子理論的agent吸毒人群網(wǎng)絡HIV傳播的模型。該模型可以同時模擬共用針具吸毒HIV傳播、社會影響和個體在團體之間移動的相互影響,體現(xiàn)了agent的反應性和適應性。 再次,本文的異性傳播網(wǎng)絡模型的構建采用了一種演化生成的方法,這種方法使得個體在尋找伙伴時具有個體的偏好,并使伙伴關系網(wǎng)絡與社會關系網(wǎng)絡聯(lián)系起來。這種方法也為建立混合模型提供了基礎。 本論文以多agent系統(tǒng)和復雜網(wǎng)絡為基礎建立了將兩者相結合的模型,解決了HIV傳播模型歸一化、固定化的缺點。借用agent作為充當傳播主體的社會個體,把個體的自主性行為能力帶入了程序模型中,并模擬人際交往的動態(tài)變化特點。通過模型的仿真結果,分析了各種因素對傳播過程的影響效果。以此為依據(jù),人們可以更有針對性的開展社會防制活動以達到對病毒傳播的控制和抑制作用。
[Abstract]:In this paper, a model combining multiple agent system and social circle network is established to study the spread of HIV virus in the high risk population of injecting drug users. Provide decision-making reference for preventing and controlling HIV proliferation. HIV transmission is one of the most important public health challenges in the world. Countries all over the world carry out extensive research to seek effective control measures. The prevention and treatment of HIV in China has achieved initial results, but in key areas, key population, the prevention and control measures still need to be strengthened. Therefore, it is of great significance for the society and government to study the internal mechanism of HIV transmission. In this paper, the simulation of HIV propagation based on multiple agent social circle network model is studied in many aspects. Firstly, according to the combination mechanism of multiple agent system and complex network, the model of multiple agent complex network is established. In order to better represent the social network spread by HIV, the social circle network is used to describe the underlying social network needed for simulation, and the dynamic property is added to the agent to simulate the population flow and the change of interpersonal relationship in the society. Secondly, a model of agent drug users network HIV transmission based on social circle theory is proposed. The model can simultaneously simulate the transmission of HIV, the social impact and the movement of individuals among groups, reflecting the reactivity and adaptability of agent. Thirdly, the model of heterosexual communication network in this paper adopts an evolutionary generation method, which makes individuals have individual preference in finding partners, and makes the partnership network and social relations network linked together. This method also provides a basis for the establishment of mixed models. Based on multiple agent systems and complex networks, this paper establishes a model combining the two models, which solves the shortcomings of normalization and immobilization of HIV propagation model. By using agent as the social individual as the main body of communication, the autonomous behavior ability of individual is brought into the program model, and the dynamic characteristics of interpersonal communication are simulated. Through the simulation results of the model, the effect of various factors on the propagation process is analyzed. Based on this, people can carry out social prevention and control activities to control and suppress the spread of virus.
【學位授予單位】：昆明理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TP393.09
本文編號：2239646
[Abstract]:In this paper, a model combining multiple agent system and social circle network is established to study the spread of HIV virus in the high risk population of injecting drug users. Provide decision-making reference for preventing and controlling HIV proliferation. HIV transmission is one of the most important public health challenges in the world. Countries all over the world carry out extensive research to seek effective control measures. The prevention and treatment of HIV in China has achieved initial results, but in key areas, key population, the prevention and control measures still need to be strengthened. Therefore, it is of great significance for the society and government to study the internal mechanism of HIV transmission. In this paper, the simulation of HIV propagation based on multiple agent social circle network model is studied in many aspects. Firstly, according to the combination mechanism of multiple agent system and complex network, the model of multiple agent complex network is established. In order to better represent the social network spread by HIV, the social circle network is used to describe the underlying social network needed for simulation, and the dynamic property is added to the agent to simulate the population flow and the change of interpersonal relationship in the society. Secondly, a model of agent drug users network HIV transmission based on social circle theory is proposed. The model can simultaneously simulate the transmission of HIV, the social impact and the movement of individuals among groups, reflecting the reactivity and adaptability of agent. Thirdly, the model of heterosexual communication network in this paper adopts an evolutionary generation method, which makes individuals have individual preference in finding partners, and makes the partnership network and social relations network linked together. This method also provides a basis for the establishment of mixed models. Based on multiple agent systems and complex networks, this paper establishes a model combining the two models, which solves the shortcomings of normalization and immobilization of HIV propagation model. By using agent as the social individual as the main body of communication, the autonomous behavior ability of individual is brought into the program model, and the dynamic characteristics of interpersonal communication are simulated. Through the simulation results of the model, the effect of various factors on the propagation process is analyzed. Based on this, people can carry out social prevention and control activities to control and suppress the spread of virus.
【學位授予單位】：昆明理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TP393.09
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