本文選題：社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò) + 信息擴(kuò)散模型��； 參考：《中國(guó)管理科學(xué)》2017年12期

【摘要】：在自媒體時(shí)代,信息來源更多、擴(kuò)散速度更快、擴(kuò)散范圍更廣,這使得網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿論的監(jiān)控和管理更加困難。為提高網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情的管控能力,需深入了解網(wǎng)絡(luò)中信息的擴(kuò)散過程及重要特征。本文首先從微觀角度分析信息的擴(kuò)散機(jī)理,考慮網(wǎng)絡(luò)的結(jié)構(gòu)特點(diǎn)以及輿情監(jiān)控的時(shí)效性,引入與用戶是否在線相對(duì)應(yīng)的節(jié)點(diǎn)狀態(tài),將傳統(tǒng)的獨(dú)立級(jí)聯(lián)模型擴(kuò)展為基于離散時(shí)間的雙概率獨(dú)立級(jí)聯(lián)擴(kuò)散模型。接著,本文從宏觀角度對(duì)信息的擴(kuò)散過程進(jìn)行分析并定量表示,結(jié)合信息自身質(zhì)量和用戶網(wǎng)絡(luò)特征兩個(gè)客觀要素,并考慮外部平臺(tái)的影響,進(jìn)而建立有關(guān)事件的動(dòng)態(tài)擴(kuò)散方程。與以往研究只利用模型模擬或純粹用數(shù)值擬合相比,本文實(shí)驗(yàn)給出了社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)中的信息擴(kuò)散過程的一個(gè)更精準(zhǔn)的刻畫。實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果展現(xiàn)了信息傳播的多種形態(tài),同時(shí)發(fā)現(xiàn)用戶規(guī)模越大、用戶關(guān)聯(lián)越緊密以及信息質(zhì)量越高時(shí),信息爆發(fā)所需的時(shí)間越短。這些發(fā)現(xiàn)有利于預(yù)測(cè)信息擴(kuò)散的趨勢(shì),同時(shí)為輿情管控的時(shí)效性和網(wǎng)絡(luò)用戶群體提供參考。
[Abstract]:In the era of self-media, more information sources, faster diffusion speed and wider spread range, which makes the monitoring and management of network public opinion more difficult. In order to improve the control ability of network public opinion, it is necessary to deeply understand the diffusion process and important characteristics of information in the network. In this paper, firstly, the mechanism of information diffusion is analyzed from the micro point of view, considering the structural characteristics of the network and the timeliness of the monitoring of public opinion, the node state corresponding to whether the user is online is introduced. The traditional independent cascade model is extended to a discrete time based double probabilistic independent cascade diffusion model. Then, this paper analyzes and quantifies the diffusion process of information from a macro perspective, combines the two objective elements of information quality and user network characteristics, and considers the influence of external platforms, and then establishes the dynamic diffusion equation of relevant events. Compared with the previous studies, we present a more accurate description of the information diffusion process in social networks. The experimental results show a variety of forms of information dissemination. At the same time, it is found that the larger the user size, the closer the user association and the higher the information quality, the shorter the time required for the information burst. These findings are helpful to predict the trend of information diffusion and provide a reference for the timeliness of public opinion control and network users.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)人民大學(xué)信息學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(71531012,71271211) 北京市自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(4172032) 京東商城電子商務(wù)研究項(xiàng)目(413313012) 中國(guó)人民大學(xué)科學(xué)研究基金項(xiàng)目(10XNI029)
【分類號(hào)】：G206;TP393.09

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