本文選題：微博　切入點(diǎn)：實(shí)時(shí)　出處：《圖書(shū)情報(bào)工作》2017年15期 　論文類(lèi)型：期刊論文

【摘要】：[目的/意義]微博在當(dāng)前信息傳播中起著重要作用,為有效預(yù)測(cè)微博熱點(diǎn)及輿情導(dǎo)控,建立實(shí)時(shí)線(xiàn)性預(yù)警模型。[方法/過(guò)程]將采集的指標(biāo)進(jìn)行缺失值和異常值的處理后,對(duì)微博話(huà)題熱度與大V影響力因子進(jìn)行因子分析與逐步回歸的比較,篩選出公共影響因子;再對(duì)其加權(quán),探索不同權(quán)重調(diào)節(jié)因子下的最佳定量公式;用此公式每次輸入當(dāng)前時(shí)刻起前3小時(shí)的數(shù)據(jù),預(yù)測(cè)當(dāng)前時(shí)刻起后30分鐘的加權(quán)值對(duì)應(yīng)的話(huà)題詞,每隔10分鐘重新更新一遍參數(shù)。[結(jié)果/結(jié)論]實(shí)驗(yàn)證明該預(yù)測(cè)模型能大大降低數(shù)據(jù)采集解析和預(yù)測(cè)時(shí)間,保持較好的準(zhǔn)確率,并可通過(guò)選擇合適的閾值,進(jìn)一步提升精確度。
[Abstract]:[objective / significance] Weibo plays an important role in the current information dissemination. In order to effectively predict Weibo hot spot and public opinion guidance, a real-time linear early warning model is established. [method / process] after processing the missing and abnormal values of the collected indexes, The factor analysis and stepwise regression of Weibo's topic heat intensity and large V influence factor are compared, and the public influence factors are screened out, and the optimal quantitative formula under different weight regulating factors is explored. The formula is used to input the data of the first 3 hours from the current moment each time, and to predict the topic words corresponding to the weighted value of 30 minutes from the current moment. The experimental results show that the prediction model can greatly reduce the time of data acquisition, analysis and prediction, and maintain a good accuracy, and the accuracy can be further improved by selecting the appropriate threshold.
【作者單位】： 韶關(guān)學(xué)院信息科學(xué)與工程學(xué)院;廣西師范大學(xué)數(shù)學(xué)與統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)院;
【基金】：教育部人文社會(huì)科學(xué)研究項(xiàng)目“社交媒體潛在輿情發(fā)現(xiàn)及導(dǎo)控機(jī)制研究”(項(xiàng)目編號(hào):13YJCZH144) 廣東省攀登計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目“大學(xué)生微博熱點(diǎn)話(huà)題趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)系統(tǒng)”(項(xiàng)目編號(hào):pdjh2015a0471)研究成果之一
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：G206;TP393.092
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本文編號(hào)：1584016