本文選題：微博　切入點：實時　出處：《圖書情報工作》2017年15期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：[目的/意義]微博在當前信息傳播中起著重要作用,為有效預測微博熱點及輿情導控,建立實時線性預警模型。[方法/過程]將采集的指標進行缺失值和異常值的處理后,對微博話題熱度與大V影響力因子進行因子分析與逐步回歸的比較,篩選出公共影響因子;再對其加權(quán),探索不同權(quán)重調(diào)節(jié)因子下的最佳定量公式;用此公式每次輸入當前時刻起前3小時的數(shù)據(jù),預測當前時刻起后30分鐘的加權(quán)值對應的話題詞,每隔10分鐘重新更新一遍參數(shù)。[結(jié)果/結(jié)論]實驗證明該預測模型能大大降低數(shù)據(jù)采集解析和預測時間,保持較好的準確率,并可通過選擇合適的閾值,進一步提升精確度。
[Abstract]:[objective / significance] Weibo plays an important role in the current information dissemination. In order to effectively predict Weibo hot spot and public opinion guidance, a real-time linear early warning model is established. [method / process] after processing the missing and abnormal values of the collected indexes, The factor analysis and stepwise regression of Weibo's topic heat intensity and large V influence factor are compared, and the public influence factors are screened out, and the optimal quantitative formula under different weight regulating factors is explored. The formula is used to input the data of the first 3 hours from the current moment each time, and to predict the topic words corresponding to the weighted value of 30 minutes from the current moment. The experimental results show that the prediction model can greatly reduce the time of data acquisition, analysis and prediction, and maintain a good accuracy, and the accuracy can be further improved by selecting the appropriate threshold.
【作者單位】： 韶關學院信息科學與工程學院;廣西師范大學數(shù)學與統(tǒng)計學院;
【基金】：教育部人文社會科學研究項目“社交媒體潛在輿情發(fā)現(xiàn)及導控機制研究”(項目編號:13YJCZH144) 廣東省攀登計劃項目“大學生微博熱點話題趨勢預測系統(tǒng)”(項目編號:pdjh2015a0471)研究成果之一
【分類號】：G206;TP393.092
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本文編號：1584016