【摘要】：城市物流節(jié)點(diǎn)是城市物流發(fā)展的重要組成部分,是完成城市配送的重要前提。經(jīng)過幾十年的建設(shè)和發(fā)展,特別是自“十·五”期間北京市物流發(fā)展規(guī)劃開始,北京市開始關(guān)注并規(guī)劃物流節(jié)點(diǎn)布局,當(dāng)前北京市已經(jīng)基本形成“三環(huán)、五帶、多中心”的城市物流節(jié)點(diǎn)空間布局。但是隨著京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展政策的提出,北京市逐漸對“非首都”功能進(jìn)行疏解,引導(dǎo)人口遷移和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化;與此同時(shí)河北、天津也正在規(guī)劃建設(shè)物流樞紐節(jié)點(diǎn)城市和地區(qū)。內(nèi)部環(huán)境和政策的變化,外部區(qū)域的吸引,都將對北京市城市物流節(jié)點(diǎn)布局提出挑戰(zhàn)。因此,本文通過對北京市城市物流節(jié)點(diǎn)空間演化過程的研究,分析影響城市物流節(jié)點(diǎn)空間布局的影響因素,并在此基礎(chǔ)上建立物流節(jié)點(diǎn)外遷選址模型,對在政策引導(dǎo)和環(huán)境變化情況下的物流節(jié)點(diǎn)外遷可能性和外遷的主要去向進(jìn)行研究。首先,本文通過調(diào)研和對統(tǒng)計(jì)資料的分析,收集北京市各個時(shí)期物流節(jié)點(diǎn)建設(shè)情況,對北京市城市物流節(jié)點(diǎn)空間演化過程進(jìn)行分析。通過運(yùn)用數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)和空間地理統(tǒng)計(jì)方法分析各個演化階段物流節(jié)點(diǎn)空間的擴(kuò)散和集聚特征。之后,結(jié)合需求分布變遷、地價(jià)變化、政策環(huán)境引導(dǎo)和交通設(shè)施條件對影響物流節(jié)點(diǎn)演化的因素進(jìn)行分析。然后,在分析北京市當(dāng)前物流節(jié)點(diǎn)發(fā)展新環(huán)境基礎(chǔ)上,建立考慮政策因素影響的城市物流節(jié)點(diǎn)外遷選址的混合整數(shù)規(guī)劃模型。模型考慮城市物流節(jié)點(diǎn)外遷與否帶來的成本和收益,以總成本最優(yōu)為決策目標(biāo)。最后,運(yùn)用MATLAB軟件調(diào)用GUROBI優(yōu)化求解工具進(jìn)行模擬仿真。分別模擬基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施補(bǔ)貼政策、碳稅政策和限行政策條件下的城市物流節(jié)點(diǎn)選址和外遷可能性,進(jìn)而分析出有效引導(dǎo)城市物流節(jié)點(diǎn)外遷的政策和城市物流節(jié)點(diǎn)外遷的主要方向。研究表明,北京市城市物流節(jié)點(diǎn),在政策引導(dǎo)、需求布局變化、地價(jià)等因素影響下呈現(xiàn)出一定的擴(kuò)散趨勢,且在不同演化階段其擴(kuò)散方向不同。而在政策規(guī)劃條件和交通條件下,物流節(jié)點(diǎn)集中建設(shè),物流集聚模式逐漸明顯,且集聚位置與規(guī)劃節(jié)點(diǎn)呈現(xiàn)出一致方向。而隨著京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展政策的實(shí)施,北京市城市物流節(jié)點(diǎn)面臨著環(huán)境和政策的變化,通過仿真模擬發(fā)現(xiàn),基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)補(bǔ)貼政策是有效引導(dǎo)城市物流節(jié)點(diǎn)外遷的政策,碳稅差異政策能夠促進(jìn)城市物流節(jié)點(diǎn)的外遷可能性,但限行政策帶來的成本增加是物流節(jié)點(diǎn)外遷的阻力。在物流節(jié)點(diǎn)外遷方向上,由于地價(jià)優(yōu)勢和配送路徑優(yōu)勢北京市西北部的馬池口是重要的外遷選址,東部河北省三河市、廊坊市是外遷的主要區(qū)域,西南部的琢州也是選擇之一。
[Abstract]:Urban logistics node is an important part of the development of urban logistics and an important prerequisite for the completion of urban distribution. After decades of construction and development, especially since the 10th Five-Year Plan for Logistics Development in Beijing, Beijing has begun to pay attention to and plan the distribution of logistics nodes. At present, Beijing has basically formed "three rings, five belts," Multi-center "urban logistics node spatial layout." However, with the development policy of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the function of "non-capital" has been gradually clarified in Beijing to guide population migration and industrial structure optimization. At the same time, Hebei and Tianjin are also planning to build logistics hub cities and regions. The change of internal environment and policy and the attraction of external region will challenge the layout of logistics node in Beijing. Therefore, through the study of the spatial evolution process of the urban logistics nodes in Beijing, this paper analyzes the factors that affect the spatial layout of the urban logistics nodes, and establishes the model of location selection of the logistics nodes on the basis of this. This paper studies the possibility and the main direction of outward migration of logistics node under the circumstance of policy guidance and environment change. Firstly, through investigation and analysis of statistical data, this paper collects the status of logistics node construction in each period of Beijing, and analyzes the spatial evolution process of urban logistics node in Beijing. By means of mathematical statistics and spatial geography statistics, the spatial diffusion and agglomeration characteristics of logistics nodes in different evolution stages are analyzed. Then, the factors influencing the evolution of logistics nodes are analyzed by combining the change of demand distribution, the change of land price, the guidance of policy environment and the condition of transportation facilities. Then, based on the analysis of the new environment of logistics node development in Beijing, a mixed integer programming model for location selection of urban logistics node is established considering the influence of policy factors. The model considers the cost and benefit of urban logistics node relocation or not, and takes the total cost optimization as the decision goal. Finally, MATLAB software is used to call GUROBI optimization tool to simulate and simulate. Under the condition of infrastructure subsidy policy, carbon tax policy and restriction policy, this paper simulates the location and possibility of urban logistics node relocation, and then analyzes the policy of effectively guiding urban logistics node relocation and the main direction of urban logistics node relocation. The research shows that the urban logistics node in Beijing has a certain diffusion trend under the influence of policy guidance, demand layout change, land price and so on, and its diffusion direction is different in different evolution stages. Under the conditions of policy planning and transportation, the logistics node centralized construction, the logistics agglomeration model gradually obvious, and the location of the planning node and the planning node showed the same direction. With the implementation of the Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei cooperative development policies, the urban logistics nodes in Beijing are facing changes in environment and policies. Through simulation, it is found that the subsidy policy of infrastructure construction is an effective policy to guide the relocation of urban logistics nodes. Carbon tax difference policy can promote the possibility of urban logistics node emigration, but the increase of cost brought by the restriction policy is the resistance of logistics node emigration. Because of the advantage of land price and distribution route, Machikou in northwest of Beijing is an important location for the relocation of logistics nodes. Sanhe City and Langfang City in the east of Hebei Province are the main areas of emigration, and Zhuozhou in the southwest is also one of the choices.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F259.27

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