【摘要】：物流需求預測是物流發(fā)展規(guī)劃的基礎,準確的需求預測能提高物流運作的效率,對物流資源的有效配置起到積極的作用,也有助于把握區(qū)域物流需求的強度,實現區(qū)域物流需求與供給的相對平衡,對提高區(qū)域物流規(guī)劃質量和區(qū)域物流運行效率具有重要的理論與實際意義。本文主要研究“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略下甘肅省的物流需求預測,創(chuàng)新性的將“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略影響中的各種定性、定量指標分別采用不同的方法進行量化,建立了一種基于虛擬變量的回歸預測模型(DVR模型),并分別用MLR模型、GM(1,1)灰色預測模型與自己建立的DVR模型,根據甘肅省2001-2015年的面板數據對2016年的物流需求進行了預測,結果表明:(1)“一帶一路”政策因素對甘肅省物流需求具有積極的促進作用;(2)DVR模型能提高預測的精度,可以為“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略下的甘肅省物流需求規(guī)劃提供一定的決策支持。本文主要完成了以下工作:1、建立了“一帶一路”政策影響下甘肅省情境化的物流需求指標體系。根據甘肅省在“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略中的定位,“一帶一路”政策落實情況及與物流相關的發(fā)展現狀,將自實施“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略以來甘肅省與之相關的政策、會議、建設情況等事件進行整理、分類,并按不同類別對政策因素依照其特性進行分析、提取指標,建立了指標體系。2、將“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略對甘肅省物流需求的政策影響等定性和定量指標分別進行了量化。對其中的定性指標采用AHP中的(-2,2)EM法進行量化;定量指標按照在建項目和建成項目分別進行量化處理。并采用CRITIC法對各指標賦予不同權重,對指標進行按類整合。3、構建了基于“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略背景的甘肅省物流需求預測模型(DVR模型)。分析所提取指標的特性,結合甘肅省的具體省情,建立基于“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略的物流需求預測模型——虛擬變量回歸預測模型。4、根據分析結果給出了甘肅省在“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略背景下發(fā)展物流產業(yè)的詳細建議。將DVR模型與其他幾種模型的預測結果作對比,進行實證分析,進一步說明本模型在“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略背景下甘肅省物流需求的預測中更為準確。并依據以上分析提出了詳盡的政策建議,為甘肅物流發(fā)展提供決策支持。
[Abstract]:Logistics demand prediction is the basis of logistics development planning. Accurate demand prediction can improve the efficiency of logistics operation, play an active role in the effective allocation of logistics resources, and also help to grasp the intensity of regional logistics demand, realize the relative balance between regional logistics demand and supply, and improve the quality of regional logistics planning and regional logistics transportation. The line efficiency has important theoretical and practical significance. This paper mainly studies the logistics demand forecast of Gansu Province under the strategy of "one way along the road", and innovatively quantifies various qualitative and quantitative indexes in the strategic influence of "one area and one road", and establishes a regression prediction model based on virtual variables (DVR model). With the MLR model, GM (1,1) grey prediction model and the DVR model established by itself, the logistics demand in 2016 was predicted according to the panel data of 2001-2015 years in Gansu province. The results showed that (1) the policy factors of "one way and one road" had a positive effect on the logistics demand of Gansu province; (2) the DVR model could improve the accuracy of the forecast. It can provide a certain decision support for the logistics demand planning of Gansu Province under the "one way" strategy. This paper has completed the following work: 1, established the situational logistics demand index system of Gansu Province under the influence of "one way and one road" policy. According to the positioning of Gansu Province in the "one area and one road" strategy, the policy of "one road and one road" The implementation of the situation and the current situation of logistics related development will be organized and classified in Gansu province and related policies, conferences and construction conditions since the implementation of the "one road area" strategy. According to different categories, the policy factors are analyzed according to their characteristics, indexes are extracted and the index system.2 is established, and the "one way" strategy is made to Gansu Province. Qualitative and quantitative indicators are quantified, such as the policy impact of the demand for logistics in Jiangsu Province. The qualitative indexes are quantified by the (-2,2) EM method in AHP; quantitative indicators are quantified according to the construction projects and the built projects. The indexes are given different weights by the CRITIC method, and the index is integrated in the class according to the class.3. The Gansu logistics demand forecasting model (DVR model) is based on the strategic background of "one area and one road". The characteristics of the extracted indexes are analyzed and the logistics demand forecasting model based on the "one area and one road" strategy is set up based on the specific provincial situation in Gansu province. The model of virtual variable regression prediction model is.4. According to the analysis results, the "area of Gansu province" is given. The detailed suggestions on the development of logistics industry under the strategic background are made. The DVR model is compared with the results of other models to make an empirical analysis. It further illustrates that the model is more accurate in the forecast of logistics demand in Gansu Province under the "one along the road" strategy. And the detailed policy suggestions are put forward according to the above analysis. To provide decision support for the development of logistics.
【學位授予單位】：蘭州財經大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F259.27

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 張雪陽;范元偉;;上海市港口物流效率與其產業(yè)結構的關聯性分析[J];物流科技;2016年05期

2 張良;;基于灰色關聯理論對浙江省物流業(yè)影響因素分析[J];市場周刊(理論研究);2016年03期

3 夏芳;杜紅梅;劉文麗;;現代物流業(yè)對我國進出口貿易影響研究[J];物流技術;2016年01期

4 胡云清;;改進遺傳BP算法在物流需求預測中的應用[J];物流科技;2015年11期

5 李曉利;王澤江;;基于改進的灰色神經網絡煤炭物流需求預測模型[J];統計與決策;2015年18期

6 何劍;董春風;董丹丹;;絲綢之路經濟帶區(qū)域物流發(fā)展水平評價研究[J];鐵道運輸與經濟;2015年09期

7 劉敬嚴;趙莉琴;;“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略下天津港口物流發(fā)展分析[J];物流技術;2015年13期

8 ;商務部等10部門聯合印發(fā)《全國流通節(jié)點城市布局規(guī)劃(2015-2020年)》[J];城市規(guī)劃通訊;2015年11期

9 毛敏;劉建;;基于多元線性回歸的區(qū)域物流需求組合預測方法[J];物流技術;2015年07期

10 徐習軍;;國家“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略:亞歐大陸橋物流業(yè)的機遇與挑戰(zhàn)[J];開發(fā)研究;2015年01期

相關碩士學位論文 前8條

1 孫劍青;北京市物流需求預測研究[D];北京交通大學;2016年

2 包訓艷;基于灰色預測模型的雙渠道模式下逆向物流需求預測[D];浙江工商大學;2015年

3 薛欣喜;基于灰色關聯的山東省制造業(yè)與物流業(yè)聯動發(fā)展研究[D];煙臺大學;2014年

4 霍蕾;水產品冷鏈物流需求預測研究[D];北京交通大學;2014年

5 王坤;我國物流產業(yè)政策選擇研究[D];北京交通大學;2011年

6 葉藝勇;區(qū)域物流需求預測研究[D];五邑大學;2008年

7 肖艷;區(qū)域物流競爭力評價研究[D];重慶大學;2007年

8 王小軍;區(qū)域經濟發(fā)展與公路客貨運量預測[D];長安大學;2003年

，

本文編號：2172145