本文選題：肉類(lèi)產(chǎn)品 + 價(jià)值鏈　； 參考：《江蘇師范大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：肉類(lèi)產(chǎn)品屬于食品,是農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的一部分。肉類(lèi)產(chǎn)品和其他產(chǎn)品一樣,價(jià)格在市場(chǎng)上是波動(dòng)的,在價(jià)值鏈的上下游間是傳遞的,價(jià)格傳遞會(huì)給生產(chǎn)企業(yè)帶來(lái)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),這就需要經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的研究從理論上說(shuō)明生產(chǎn)企業(yè)如何化解價(jià)格傳遞的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問(wèn)題。在實(shí)踐方面,目前食品安全事件是社會(huì)關(guān)注熱點(diǎn),如何讓老百姓吃上放心肉已成為人們迫切期待解決的問(wèn)題。在此背景下,消費(fèi)者對(duì)肉類(lèi)產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量提出了更高的要求,給肉類(lèi)企業(yè)的生產(chǎn)運(yùn)營(yíng)帶來(lái)了巨大的壓力與挑戰(zhàn),同時(shí)也面臨許多機(jī)遇。這就需要經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)從理論上研究肉類(lèi)生產(chǎn)企業(yè)如何保證食品安全、規(guī)避價(jià)格風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、提高自身競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的問(wèn)題。因此,本文研究的主題或宗旨:肉類(lèi)產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)企業(yè)如何在保證讓老百姓吃上放心肉的基礎(chǔ)上,化解價(jià)格在價(jià)值鏈中傳遞所帶來(lái)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),以提高企業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。肉類(lèi)生產(chǎn)企業(yè)是其產(chǎn)品價(jià)格的制定者,同時(shí)也是價(jià)格接受者,承受著價(jià)格波動(dòng)與傳遞的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),故有必要先對(duì)我國(guó)肉類(lèi)產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格波動(dòng)進(jìn)行分析。本文以豬肉價(jià)格為例,運(yùn)用X12季節(jié)調(diào)整法和HP濾波法將豬肉價(jià)格進(jìn)行分解,分析其波動(dòng)特征;闡述了豬肉價(jià)格波動(dòng)原因;基于肉類(lèi)產(chǎn)品的價(jià)值鏈構(gòu)成和價(jià)格傳遞機(jī)理的分析,對(duì)肉類(lèi)相關(guān)價(jià)格數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行ADF檢驗(yàn),運(yùn)用協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、誤差修正模型和格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)對(duì)肉類(lèi)產(chǎn)品價(jià)值鏈中價(jià)格傳遞進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析;分析價(jià)格波動(dòng)及其傳遞對(duì)生產(chǎn)企業(yè)的影響。接著從供給角度,研究分析了肉類(lèi)產(chǎn)品在價(jià)值鏈供給端中存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其機(jī)理。以熟肉制品為例,基于層次分析法對(duì)熟肉制品價(jià)值鏈風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行評(píng)估,設(shè)計(jì)了7個(gè)一級(jí)指標(biāo),26個(gè)二級(jí)指標(biāo),以事前、事中和事后為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的方案層,形成了熟肉制品價(jià)值鏈風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型。運(yùn)用YAAHP軟件統(tǒng)籌專(zhuān)家打分結(jié)果,表明產(chǎn)品風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、物流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是熟肉制品價(jià)值鏈中影響較大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素。并對(duì)產(chǎn)品風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、物流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行靈敏度分析,分析表明隨著3個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)權(quán)重的增加,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制階段從事前轉(zhuǎn)為事中控制,對(duì)熟肉制品價(jià)值鏈的事前控制應(yīng)進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)。然后從需求角度,研究肉類(lèi)產(chǎn)品在價(jià)值鏈需求端的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。選取冷鮮肉為研究對(duì)象,基于消費(fèi)者行為的三因素理論,運(yùn)用層次-模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法對(duì)冷鮮肉消費(fèi)者行為進(jìn)行研究分析,表明消費(fèi)者個(gè)人因素、心理因素和食品安全是冷鮮肉需求端重要的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素;網(wǎng)民較傾向于購(gòu)買(mǎi)冷鮮肉,其中食品安全是肉類(lèi)產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)企業(yè)在價(jià)值鏈需求端面臨的最大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。最后,根據(jù)上述肉類(lèi)產(chǎn)品供求角度的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析,價(jià)格在價(jià)值鏈中傳遞的機(jī)理分析,揭示了價(jià)格波動(dòng)與傳遞的內(nèi)在規(guī)律以及影響價(jià)格波動(dòng)的因素,價(jià)格在價(jià)值鏈中傳遞的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)特征,據(jù)此對(duì)肉類(lèi)生產(chǎn)企業(yè)如何消除價(jià)格波動(dòng)與傳遞所帶來(lái)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)或不利影響,提高自身競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力提出一些建議。
[Abstract]:Meat products belong to food and are part of agricultural products. Like other products, the price of meat products fluctuates in the market and is transmitted between the upper and lower reaches of the value chain. Price transmission brings risks to the manufacturing enterprises. This requires the study of economics to explain theoretically how to resolve the risk of price transmission. In practice, the current food safety incidents are the focus of social concern, how to let the common people eat meat has become an urgent problem to be solved. In this context, consumers put forward higher requirements for the quality of meat products, which brings great pressure and challenges to the production and operation of meat enterprises, but also faces many opportunities. This requires economics to study theoretically how to ensure food safety, avoid the price risk and improve the competitiveness of meat production enterprises. Therefore, the theme or purpose of this study: how to ensure that the production of meat products on the basis of ensuring that the common people eat rest assured meat, to resolve the risk of price transmission in the value chain, in order to improve the competitiveness of enterprises. Meat production enterprises are the makers and receivers of the price of their products, and bear the risk of price fluctuation and transmission. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the price fluctuation of meat products in China first. Taking pork price as an example, this paper uses X12 seasonal adjustment method and HP filter method to decompose pork price, analyze its fluctuation characteristics, explain the reason of pork price fluctuation, and analyze the value chain structure and price transfer mechanism based on meat products. Using ADF test, error correction model and Granger causality test to analyze the price transfer in the meat product value chain, and analyze the influence of price fluctuation and its transmission on the production enterprises. Then, the paper analyzes the risk and mechanism of meat products in the supply chain from the point of view of supply. Taking cooked meat products as an example, the risk assessment of cooked meat products value chain is carried out based on AHP. Seven primary indexes and 26 secondary indexes are designed. The risk assessment model of cooked meat products value chain is formed. Using YAAHP software as a whole, the results show that product risk, technical risk and logistics risk are the most important risk factors in cooked meat product value chain. The sensitivity analysis of product risk, technical risk and logistics risk shows that with the increase of the three risk weights, the risk control stage is converted to in-process control, and the prior control of the cooked meat product value chain should be further strengthened. Then from the demand point of view, the risk of meat products in the demand side of the value chain is studied. Based on the three-factor theory of consumer behavior, the cold fresh meat was selected as the research object, and the hierarchical fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to study and analyze the consumer behavior of cold fresh meat. Psychological factors and food safety are important risk factors on the demand side of cold fresh meat, and Internet users tend to buy cold fresh meat, among which food safety is the biggest risk faced by meat production enterprises in the demand side of the value chain. Finally, according to the above risk analysis of meat product supply and demand angle, the mechanism of price transfer in the value chain is analyzed, and the inherent law of price fluctuation and transmission and the factors influencing price fluctuation are revealed. On the basis of the risk characteristics transmitted by price in the value chain, some suggestions on how to eliminate the risks or adverse effects brought by price fluctuation and transmission and to improve the competitiveness of meat producers are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江蘇師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F323.7

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