本文選題：電商物流 + 配送瓶頸��； 參考：《華北電力大學(北京)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著我國網(wǎng)絡(luò)購物的日益普及,電商物流配送業(yè)務(wù)量隨之增長,我國現(xiàn)有的物流設(shè)施在非節(jié)假日期間的利用率已經(jīng)達到較高水平,但電商在節(jié)假日促銷產(chǎn)生的訂單量卻超出了快遞企業(yè)的能力范圍,快件的延誤、損壞、丟失等快遞爆倉現(xiàn)象在節(jié)假日時有發(fā)生,使消費者得不到良好的購物體驗。為了緩解這種現(xiàn)象,電商和快遞企業(yè)采用了預售商品和自建物流等辦法,并取得了一定的成效。然而高峰期的物流配送瓶頸仍然存在,需要尋求更多的解決方案來應對這一難題。因此,本文提出提前配送的方法來解決節(jié)假日物流配送瓶頸問題,該方法根據(jù)消費者在網(wǎng)上的購物偏好和購物規(guī)律將部分商品提前運送至各大物流節(jié)點,待顧客下單后直接就近發(fā)貨,從而分擔物流高峰期的業(yè)務(wù)量,充分利用物流企業(yè)的閑時運力。本文主要包括如下研究內(nèi)容:首先,通過調(diào)查訪問了解了我國節(jié)假日的物流配送現(xiàn)狀以及消費者的網(wǎng)購經(jīng)歷和網(wǎng)購需求,進而分析了電子商務(wù)背景下物流行業(yè)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,闡述了本文研究的必要性和現(xiàn)實性。介紹了電商物流配送的整個流程,從物流基礎(chǔ)設(shè)置建設(shè)和行業(yè)發(fā)展特點的角度討論了物流配送中存在的問題。其次,考慮到電商行業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)不容易獲取,本文通過仿真對電子商務(wù)交易和商品配送流程進行模擬。仿真模型中選取了淘寶網(wǎng)上的21家銷售不同種類商品的店鋪,將店鋪的實際銷售量數(shù)據(jù)作為仿真參數(shù)設(shè)定依據(jù),配送流程仿真的范圍是電商發(fā)貨比較集中的五個省份至北京市。仿真得到了商品來源、滯留時間、運輸路徑等數(shù)據(jù)。然后,采用決策樹和兩步聚類算法,經(jīng)過據(jù)預處理、數(shù)據(jù)集成、數(shù)據(jù)轉(zhuǎn)換和數(shù)據(jù)挖掘的過程得出結(jié)果。決策樹模型的結(jié)果表明,節(jié)假日快遞擁堵與發(fā)貨地、商品來源和商品類別有關(guān);聚類分析的結(jié)果表明,店鋪銷售商品在配送中的擁堵程度與店鋪成交量正相關(guān)。根據(jù)以上結(jié)果,本文從運輸條件、快遞行業(yè)自身因素和消費者行為因素三個方面分析了導致物流配送瓶頸的原因。最后,針對物流配送瓶頸問題提出了配送優(yōu)化策略并進行了仿真驗證。提出的配送優(yōu)化策略包含五方面:商品的配送種類、配送數(shù)量、商品來源、配送提前期和配送模式。仿真結(jié)果表明提前配送策略可以有效減少商品在運輸過程中的滯留時間和顧客等待收貨的時間,改善節(jié)假日物流爆倉的現(xiàn)象。這種提前配送模式對于我國目前電子商務(wù)背景下物流配送的發(fā)展具有一定價值,而且存在值得繼續(xù)深入研究的內(nèi)容,如擴大數(shù)據(jù)收集范圍、增加數(shù)據(jù)收集量、在物流配送中考慮貨物中轉(zhuǎn)等因素。
[Abstract]:With the increasing popularity of online shopping in our country, the volume of e-commerce logistics distribution has increased, and the utilization rate of existing logistics facilities in China has reached a high level during the non-holiday period. However, the volume of orders generated by e-commerce in holiday promotion is beyond the scope of express delivery enterprises, express delivery delay, damage, loss and other express delivery exploding occurred from time to time in the holidays, so that consumers can not get a good shopping experience. In order to alleviate this phenomenon, e-commerce and express delivery enterprises have adopted the methods of pre-sale and self-building logistics, and have achieved certain results. However, the bottleneck of logistics distribution still exists in the peak period, and more solutions are needed to deal with this problem. Therefore, this paper puts forward the method of early distribution to solve the bottleneck problem of holiday logistics distribution. According to consumers' shopping preferences and shopping rules on the Internet, some goods are transported to each major logistics node in advance. When customers place orders, they can directly deliver goods in the vicinity, so as to share the volume of business in the peak period of logistics, and make full use of the spare time capacity of logistics enterprises. This article mainly includes the following research contents: first, through the investigation visit has understood our country holiday logistics distribution present situation, as well as the consumer's online shopping experience and the online purchase demand, then has analyzed the development present situation of the logistics industry under the electronic commerce background, This paper expounds the necessity and reality of this study. This paper introduces the whole flow of e-commerce logistics distribution, and discusses the existing problems in logistics distribution from the point of view of the construction of logistics infrastructure and the characteristics of industry development. Secondly, considering that e-commerce industry data is not easy to obtain, this paper simulates e-commerce transaction and commodity distribution process through simulation. In the simulation model, 21 stores selling different kinds of goods on Taobao are selected, and the actual sales data of the stores are taken as the basis of setting the simulation parameters. The scope of the simulation of distribution flow is from five provinces where the electronic merchants ship goods are concentrated to Beijing. The data of commodity source, residence time and transportation path are obtained by simulation. Then, the decision tree and two-step clustering algorithm are used to get the results through the process of data preprocessing, data integration, data conversion and data mining. The result of decision tree model shows that the congestion of holiday express is related to the place of delivery, the source of goods and the category of goods, and the result of cluster analysis shows that the degree of congestion in distribution is positively related to the turnover of shop. According to the above results, this paper analyzes the reasons of the bottleneck of logistics distribution from three aspects: transportation conditions, express industry's own factors and consumer's behavior factors. Finally, the optimization strategy of logistics distribution bottleneck is put forward and verified by simulation. The proposed distribution optimization strategy includes five aspects: distribution type, distribution quantity, commodity source, delivery lead time and distribution mode. The simulation results show that the early delivery strategy can effectively reduce the detention time of goods in the transportation process and the waiting time for customers to receive the goods, and improve the phenomenon of logistics exploding during holidays. This mode of advance distribution has some value for the development of logistics distribution under the background of electronic commerce in our country, and there are some contents worth further study, such as expanding the scope of data collection and increasing the amount of data collection. In the logistics distribution consideration of goods transfer and other factors.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學(北京)
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F724.6;F259.2

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