本文選題：鐵路快運(yùn) + 運(yùn)量預(yù)測　； 參考：《北京交通大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著電子商務(wù)產(chǎn)業(yè)的快速發(fā)展,與之相應(yīng)的快運(yùn)貨物運(yùn)輸需求大幅增長,貨運(yùn)市場的變革推動(dòng)運(yùn)輸方式轉(zhuǎn)變,各種運(yùn)輸方式下的快運(yùn)貨物運(yùn)輸產(chǎn)品也急需轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)。目前,中國鐵路形成了既有線和高速線兩套網(wǎng)絡(luò),技術(shù)水平高,運(yùn)輸能力強(qiáng)。與此同時(shí),中國鐵路總公司也提出加快推進(jìn)鐵路向現(xiàn)代物流企業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型以積極適應(yīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)改革和社會(huì)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,提供多樣化的快運(yùn)貨物運(yùn)輸產(chǎn)品供市場選擇。鐵路發(fā)展快運(yùn)貨物運(yùn)輸,符合市場經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)律,同時(shí)有利于提高鐵路快運(yùn)貨物運(yùn)輸市場份額,降低社會(huì)物流成本。本文的研究基于中國鐵路總公司相關(guān)科技課題,對(duì)鐵路快運(yùn)貨物市場的運(yùn)輸需求進(jìn)行分析,并設(shè)計(jì)相應(yīng)的產(chǎn)品體系。論文在分析總結(jié)國內(nèi)外現(xiàn)有快運(yùn)貨物運(yùn)輸現(xiàn)狀與產(chǎn)品類型的基礎(chǔ)上,進(jìn)行了以下六個(gè)方面的研究工作。(1)通過調(diào)研、檢索文獻(xiàn)資料對(duì)我國鐵路快運(yùn)市場進(jìn)行PEST和SWOT分析,總結(jié)歸納我國鐵路快運(yùn)產(chǎn)品現(xiàn)狀以及存在的問題,明確鐵路快運(yùn)市場目標(biāo)定位。(2)對(duì)鐵路快運(yùn)貨物運(yùn)輸需求進(jìn)行分析。將鐵路快運(yùn)貨物運(yùn)輸需求細(xì)分為鐵路能夠占領(lǐng)的快遞貨物市場份額和鐵路現(xiàn)有快運(yùn)貨物兩個(gè)部分,分別采用ARMA、回歸預(yù)測組合模型,以及簡單移動(dòng)平均法、加權(quán)移動(dòng)平均法組合模型進(jìn)行預(yù)測。(3)基于貨主需求的快運(yùn)方式選擇視角,采用多項(xiàng)Logit模型對(duì)貨主運(yùn)輸方式的選擇進(jìn)行分析,計(jì)算各種快運(yùn)方式市場份額和鐵路快運(yùn)市場需求預(yù)測結(jié)果;通過相關(guān)指標(biāo)對(duì)鐵路快運(yùn)貨源吸引城市進(jìn)行篩選,設(shè)定城市快運(yùn)貨物吸引系數(shù),進(jìn)行城市間的OD量推算。(4)設(shè)計(jì)基于QFD的鐵路快運(yùn)貨物運(yùn)輸產(chǎn)品,通過問卷調(diào)查等方式建立鐵路快運(yùn)貨物運(yùn)輸產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量屋,基于列車速度、運(yùn)到時(shí)限、客戶類型、經(jīng)營模式、途中作業(yè)方式等構(gòu)建鐵路快運(yùn)貨物運(yùn)輸產(chǎn)品體系。(5)設(shè)計(jì)鐵路快運(yùn)貨物列車開行方案,提出基于滿足最小停站次數(shù)、運(yùn)輸需求、鐵路快運(yùn)運(yùn)營效益的多目標(biāo)規(guī)劃開行方案優(yōu)化模型。(6)以京滬通道為例,結(jié)合文中的方法,進(jìn)行運(yùn)輸需求分析和開行方案設(shè)計(jì)。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of electronic commerce industry, the demand for express freight transportation has increased dramatically, and the transformation of freight market has promoted the transformation of transportation mode, and the products of express freight transportation under various modes of transportation are in urgent need of transformation and upgrading. At present, the Chinese railway has formed two sets of network of existing railway line and high-speed line, the technology level is high, the transportation capacity is strong. At the same time, China Railway Corporation also proposed to speed up the transformation of railway to modern logistics enterprises in order to actively adapt to the economic structure reform and social development, to provide a variety of express freight transport products for market choice. The development of express freight transportation by railway conforms to the law of market economy, at the same time, it is helpful to increase the market share of freight transportation and reduce the cost of social logistics. Based on the related scientific and technological issues of China Railway Corporation, this paper analyzes the transportation demand of railway express freight market and designs the corresponding product system. On the basis of analyzing and summarizing the current situation and product types of express freight transportation at home and abroad, this paper carries out the following six aspects of research work: 1) through investigation and investigation, the paper carries out the PEST and SWOT analysis of China's railway express transportation market through searching the literature data. This paper summarizes and summarizes the present situation and existing problems of railway express transportation products in China, and clarifies the target orientation of railway express transportation market. The demand of railway express freight transportation is subdivided into two parts: the market share of express goods that the railway can occupy and the existing express goods of railway. The ARMA-regression forecasting combined model and the simple moving average method are adopted respectively. The weighted moving average method is combined with model to forecast. (3) based on the choice of express mode of cargo owner's demand, this paper uses multiple Logit models to analyze the choice of cargo owner's transportation mode. Calculate the market share of all kinds of express transportation methods and the forecast result of the demand of the railway express transportation market, screen the cities attracted by the railway express freight sources through the relevant indexes, and set up the attraction coefficient of the urban express goods, Carrying on the calculation of OD quantity between cities. (4) designing the railway express freight transport products based on QFD, establishing the quality house of railway express freight transport products by means of questionnaire survey, based on the train speed, time limit, customer type, management mode, etc. Construction of railway express freight transport product system. 5) Design of railway express freight train operation scheme, which is based on satisfying the minimum stop number and transportation demand. The optimization model of multi-objective programming for railway express operation efficiency. (6) taking the Beijing-Shanghai corridor as an example, combining the method in this paper, the analysis of transportation demand and the design of the opening scheme are carried out.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F532.6

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本文編號(hào)：1846553