本文選題：訂單交付　切入點(diǎn)：銷售預(yù)測(cè)模型　出處：《東華大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著中國(guó)物流行業(yè)的快速發(fā)展,作為一種物流設(shè)備的叉車也呈現(xiàn)出良好的發(fā)展勢(shì)頭。越來越多的進(jìn)口叉車品牌進(jìn)入中國(guó),與國(guó)內(nèi)叉車生產(chǎn)行業(yè)展開競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。JH公司以某企業(yè)全球戰(zhàn)略合作供應(yīng)商的身份進(jìn)入中國(guó)叉車行業(yè),以良好的產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量和先進(jìn)的營(yíng)銷模式迅速打開市場(chǎng),排名躍居到進(jìn)口叉車中國(guó)區(qū)前兩名。不過,市場(chǎng)發(fā)展瞬息萬變,客戶要求不斷提高,企業(yè)面對(duì)這些變化也需要應(yīng)時(shí)而變,及時(shí)進(jìn)行相應(yīng)的戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整,其中,準(zhǔn)確、及時(shí)的訂單交付能力是叉車行業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中取得優(yōu)勢(shì)的重要因素之一,歷來備受該行業(yè)企業(yè)管理層的重視。本文以JH公司的訂單交付為研究對(duì)象,以縮短交貨周期為目的,提升客戶的滿意度和公司的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。JH公司是一家銷售型企業(yè),無采購(gòu)和產(chǎn)品設(shè)計(jì)權(quán),因此對(duì)訂單交付的研究只能從銷售訂單預(yù)測(cè)的精準(zhǔn)性和訂單管理流程優(yōu)化兩方面進(jìn)行,并配套相應(yīng)的管理措施。銷售訂單預(yù)測(cè)精準(zhǔn)性體現(xiàn)在可根據(jù)精確預(yù)測(cè)的數(shù)據(jù),先行向工廠下單生產(chǎn),客戶簽訂合同后免去等待生產(chǎn)時(shí)間直接發(fā)貨。訂單管理流程優(yōu)化是企業(yè)員工實(shí)際操作過程的優(yōu)化,好的模式能夠縮短每個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)的操作時(shí)間,提高工作效率。本文結(jié)合JH公司在訂單管理方面的現(xiàn)狀,重點(diǎn)分析目前JH公司的銷售訂單預(yù)測(cè)方法和訂單管理具體流程,指出其在銷售訂單預(yù)測(cè)和訂單管理流程方面存在的問題。在查閱國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)領(lǐng)域的理論方法的基礎(chǔ)上,分別利用移動(dòng)平均法和指數(shù)平滑法進(jìn)行JH公司叉車銷售訂單預(yù)測(cè),并對(duì)其進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn),最后證明基于指數(shù)平滑法建立的模型能夠有效地對(duì)JH公司的叉車進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),大大提高了預(yù)測(cè)的精度,既能及時(shí)滿足客戶需求又能防止庫(kù)存積壓,提高客戶的滿意度。然后,結(jié)合現(xiàn)有的訂單管理流程,利用魚骨圖法找出流程中存在的不足,深入分析并挖掘出根本原因;運(yùn)用ECRS法減少?zèng)]有價(jià)值環(huán)節(jié)、合并重復(fù)環(huán)節(jié)、對(duì)保留部分流程進(jìn)行了重排和簡(jiǎn)化,讓流程運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)更加順暢,提高業(yè)務(wù)處理效率和信息傳遞速度;結(jié)合具體某個(gè)訂單,檢驗(yàn)了流程優(yōu)化的有效性。為保證上述改進(jìn)的順利實(shí)施,同時(shí)為JH公司在管理上提出有效的方案建議。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化發(fā)展的趨勢(shì)和行業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的不斷加劇,叉車企業(yè)如何提高訂單交付方面的能力,及時(shí)、快速地滿足客戶需求,是叉車企業(yè)在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中取得優(yōu)勢(shì)的關(guān)鍵。本文在JH公司訂單精確預(yù)測(cè)和訂單流程優(yōu)化等方面的研究可為叉車行業(yè)提供一些啟示。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's logistics industry, forklift trucks, as a kind of logistics equipment, are also showing good development momentum. More and more imported forklift brands enter China. To compete with the domestic forklift manufacturing industry. JH entered the forklift industry in China as a supplier of global strategic cooperation, opening the market quickly with good product quality and advanced marketing model. However, the market is developing rapidly and the customer requirements are constantly improving. In the face of these changes, enterprises also need to make timely strategic adjustments, among which, they are accurate. The ability of timely order delivery is one of the important factors to gain advantages in the competition of forklift truck industry, and has always been attached great importance by the management of the forklift industry. In this paper, the order delivery of JH Company is taken as the research object, and the purpose of this paper is to shorten the delivery period. Improving customer satisfaction and Competitiveness. JH is a sales company with no right to purchase and product design. Therefore, the research on order delivery can only be carried out from two aspects: the accuracy of sales order prediction and the optimization of order management process. And the corresponding management measures. The accuracy of sales order prediction can be reflected in according to the accurate forecast data, first of all to the factory order production, The order management process optimization is the optimization of the actual operation process of the enterprise staff, the good model can shorten the operation time of each link. Based on the current situation of JH company in order management, this paper mainly analyzes the current JH company's sales order forecasting method and order management process. This paper points out the problems existing in the forecasting of sales order and the flow of order management. On the basis of consulting the theories and methods of related fields at home and abroad, the paper makes use of moving average method and exponential smoothing method to forecast the forklift truck sales order of JH Company, respectively. Finally, it is proved that the model based on exponential smoothing method can effectively predict the forklift truck of JH Company, which greatly improves the accuracy of the prediction, and can not only meet the customer's demand in time but also prevent the inventory backlog. Improve customer satisfaction. Then, combined with the existing order management process, using the fish bone chart method to find out the shortcomings of the process, in-depth analysis and excavation of the root cause; use of ECRS method to reduce the value of links, merge duplicate links, It rearranges and simplifies the retained part of the process, makes the process run more smoothly, improves the efficiency of business processing and the speed of information transmission, and tests the effectiveness of the process optimization by combining a specific order. In order to ensure the smooth implementation of the above improvements, With the trend of economic globalization and the increasing competition in the industry, how to improve the ability of order delivery in forklift truck enterprises, in order to meet the needs of customers in a timely and fast manner, It is the key for forklift enterprises to gain advantages in the competition. The research of JH company in the aspects of order precision prediction and order process optimization can provide some enlightenment for forklift industry.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F416.4;F274

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