本文關(guān)鍵詞： 熱環(huán)境 脆弱性評(píng)價(jià) 地表溫度 局部空間自相關(guān) 深圳　出處：《中國(guó)地質(zhì)大學(xué)(北京)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：快速城市化進(jìn)程對(duì)城市的生態(tài)環(huán)境產(chǎn)生了深刻的影響,城市局地氣候變化顯著,其中尤其以熱環(huán)境變化最為顯著。近年來(lái),伴隨全球變暖及城市化的客觀趨勢(shì),世界范圍內(nèi)高溫?zé)崂藶?zāi)害頻發(fā),對(duì)城市居民的健康造成了極大的威脅。城市熱環(huán)境作為城市環(huán)境的主導(dǎo)因素,與城市高溫?zé)崂藶?zāi)害的發(fā)生有直接的關(guān)系。對(duì)城市熱環(huán)境進(jìn)行脆弱性評(píng)價(jià),識(shí)別高脆弱度熱點(diǎn)區(qū),可為高溫?zé)崂藶?zāi)害的防范工作提供依據(jù),對(duì)城市的可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重要意義。本文以深圳西部為例,基于脆弱性評(píng)價(jià)理論體系,結(jié)合城市高溫?zé)崂孙L(fēng)險(xiǎn)特征,構(gòu)建熱環(huán)境脆弱性評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。準(zhǔn)則層包括年齡結(jié)構(gòu)、個(gè)人經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況、醫(yī)療便捷度及熱環(huán)境空間分布。其中,年齡結(jié)構(gòu)包括居住區(qū)內(nèi)0-5歲、65歲及以上人口密度;個(gè)人經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況包括住宅基準(zhǔn)地價(jià)、戶均住宅面積、戶均月租水平;醫(yī)療便捷度則由距離最近且具備急救能力的二、三級(jí)醫(yī)院急救距離表征;熱環(huán)境空間分布則由地表溫度表征。以ASTER影像、第六次人口普查、基準(zhǔn)地價(jià)等為數(shù)據(jù)源,利用劈窗算法、社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)空間化、耗費(fèi)距離模型等方法獲得指標(biāo)的空間分布;采用熵權(quán)法與Delphi法結(jié)合的方法確定權(quán)重,對(duì)深圳西部地區(qū)熱環(huán)境脆弱性進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià),從空間上識(shí)別高脆弱度熱點(diǎn)區(qū)域。結(jié)果表明:(1)深圳市西部地區(qū)熱環(huán)境脆弱性整體不高,數(shù)值分布相對(duì)均勻。按街道進(jìn)行分區(qū)統(tǒng)計(jì)表明脆弱性平均值較高的區(qū)域主要位于研究區(qū)南部。(2)研究區(qū)熱環(huán)境脆弱性熱點(diǎn)空間分布呈組團(tuán)聚集格局,主要熱環(huán)境脆弱性熱點(diǎn)區(qū)包括:原特區(qū)、前海、中部龍華中心、航空城、西部工業(yè)組團(tuán)等。分析各熱點(diǎn)區(qū)主導(dǎo)因素表明,南部特區(qū)內(nèi)以居住、商服用地為主,熱環(huán)境敏感人群較多,特區(qū)內(nèi)脆弱性熱點(diǎn)區(qū)的主導(dǎo)因素以敏感性為主;中部龍華中心熱環(huán)境脆弱性熱點(diǎn)區(qū)內(nèi)醫(yī)療條件較差,脆弱性主導(dǎo)因素為適應(yīng)性;西部地區(qū)包括前海熱、航空城、西部工業(yè)組團(tuán)熱環(huán)境脆弱性熱點(diǎn)區(qū)多為工業(yè)區(qū)及航空、港口、倉(cāng)儲(chǔ)物流用地,不透水面比例較高且連片、植被稀少,高溫暴露較高,脆弱性主導(dǎo)因素為暴露性。因此,對(duì)于中、西部工業(yè)園區(qū)集中區(qū)域,有必要改善醫(yī)療條件以減小熱感應(yīng)死亡的發(fā)生概率,南部則應(yīng)重點(diǎn)關(guān)注緩解高溫敏感人群居住密度及居住條件的措施,同時(shí)提高居民的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)感知及高溫預(yù)警措施,以減小熱感應(yīng)死亡事件的發(fā)生。
[Abstract]:The rapid urbanization process has had a profound impact on the ecological environment of the city, and the local climate change in the city is remarkable, especially in the thermal environment. In recent years, with the objective trend of global warming and urbanization, The frequent high temperature heat wave disasters in the world pose a great threat to the health of the urban residents. The urban thermal environment is the leading factor of the urban environment. It is directly related to the occurrence of urban high temperature heat wave disaster. To evaluate the vulnerability of urban thermal environment and identify hot spots with high vulnerability can provide the basis for the prevention work of high temperature heat wave disaster. This paper takes the western part of Shenzhen as an example, based on the vulnerability evaluation theory system and the characteristics of urban high temperature heat wave risk, constructs the thermal environment vulnerability evaluation index system. The criterion layer includes the age structure. Among them, the age structure includes the population density of 0-5 years old and 65 years old and above, the personal economic condition includes the standard land price of residence, the average residence area, the average monthly rent level of the residence, the distribution of the personal economic condition, the medical convenience and the space distribution of the thermal environment, the age structure includes the population density of 0-5 years old or above. The convenience of medical treatment is characterized by the distance of emergency treatment in the nearest and the second and third level hospitals with the ability of first aid, and the spatial distribution of the thermal environment is characterized by the surface temperature. The data sources are ASTER image, 6th population census, benchmark land price, etc. The spatial distribution of the index is obtained by using the split-window algorithm, the socio-economic data spatialization and the cost distance model, and the weight is determined by the combination of entropy weight method and Delphi method to evaluate the vulnerability of the thermal environment in the western part of Shenzhen. The results show that the thermal environment vulnerability in the western part of Shenzhen is not high. The area with higher mean value of vulnerability is mainly located in the south of the study area, and the spatial distribution of the hot spots of thermal environmental vulnerability in the study area is cluster and aggregation pattern. The main hot spots for the vulnerability of the thermal environment include: the former Special Zone, the Qianhai Sea, the Central Longhua Center, the Aeronautical City, the Western Industrial Group and so on. There are more sensitive people in the thermal environment, the main factor of the vulnerability hot spot in the special zone is sensitivity; the medical condition is poor in the hot spot region of the central Longhua central thermal environment, and the leading factor of vulnerability is adaptability; the western region includes the former sea fever. The hot spots of thermal environment vulnerability in aviation city and western industrial group are mostly industrial area, aviation, port, storage and logistics land, the proportion of impermeable surface is high and continuous, vegetation is rare, high temperature exposure is high, and the main factor of vulnerability is exposure. For the central and western industrial parks, it is necessary to improve the medical conditions to reduce the probability of thermal induced death, while the southern region should focus on the measures to alleviate the residential density and living conditions of the hyperthermia sensitive population. At the same time, the residents' risk awareness and high temperature warning measures are improved to reduce the occurrence of thermal induced death.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)地質(zhì)大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：P429

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