本文關鍵詞：低碳經濟視角下農村物流系統(tǒng)動力學建模及優(yōu)化研究　出處：《江蘇大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 低碳經濟 農村物流 系統(tǒng)動力學

【摘要】：在當前主推低碳經濟的潮流下,高能耗、高排放、低效率的傳統(tǒng)農村物流已經成為制約農村經濟可持續(xù)性發(fā)展的枷鎖。而為了促進農村經濟和環(huán)境的協調發(fā)展以實現低碳經濟,推動農村物流的產業(yè)升級和低碳轉型成為打開枷鎖的重要一步。以促進我國農村物流由傳統(tǒng)向現代化、低碳化轉型為研究目的,構建低碳經濟視角下的農村物流系統(tǒng)動力學模型,并進行優(yōu)化分析和政策模擬為農村物流的低碳化提供對策建議。主要包括以下內容:在相關理論和文獻研究的基礎上,明確了低碳經濟視角下農村物流的定義、主要功能、基礎要素和構成。并從低碳經濟視角出發(fā)將農村物流系統(tǒng)分為城鄉(xiāng)商貿供需、物流碳排放和農村物流經濟三個子系統(tǒng),對其相互之間的關系進行分析。其次運用系統(tǒng)動力學的方法,繪制因果回路圖并理清主要的反饋回路,以此構建低碳經濟視角下農村物流的SD流圖。以江蘇省農村物流為例對模型中的參數和變量賦值和輸入相應函數后,進行了模型的有效性與真實性檢驗。最后通過已檢驗的模型做了以下三部分的研究:一是預測模型中的主要變量,二是通過參數調整從環(huán)保投入、能源技術、貨物運輸方式、農產品加工、物流投資和引入碳稅等六個方面對模型進行優(yōu)化分析,三是根據模型的優(yōu)化分析以及江蘇省農村的實際情況,提出了組合政策和碳稅政策并進行評價分析。分析結果表明,江蘇農村的經濟正處于高速發(fā)展期,農村物流的供需矛盾也隨之愈發(fā)激烈,而農村物流的碳排放量也隨之增多;通過優(yōu)化分析發(fā)現,環(huán)保投入、能源技術、農村物流投資、農產品加工、貨物運輸方式和碳稅都是促進農村物流向低碳化轉型的有效影響因素;通過分析碳生產率和脫鉤指數可知,和未采用政策的情況相比,組合政策的實施可以有效改變農村物流的現狀,而碳稅政策雖然比組合政策有更好的效果,但我國現有的低碳技術和治理效率還未達到實施條件,需要通過政府提供低碳補貼和碳稅返還使物流業(yè)的收益大于支出才能實現理想效果。
[Abstract]:In the current trend of low carbon economy, high energy consumption, high emissions. Inefficient traditional rural logistics has become a constraint on the sustainable development of rural economy, and in order to promote the coordinated development of rural economy and the environment to achieve low-carbon economy. To promote the upgrading of rural logistics industry and low-carbon transformation has become an important step to open the shackles in order to promote the transformation of rural logistics from traditional to modern low-carbon for the purpose of research. Constructing the dynamic model of rural logistics system from the perspective of low-carbon economy. And carry on the optimization analysis and policy simulation to provide the countermeasure suggestion for the low carbonization of the rural logistics. Mainly includes the following contents: on the basis of the related theory and the literature research, has clarified the definition of the rural logistics under the low carbon economy angle of view. From the perspective of low-carbon economy, the rural logistics system is divided into three subsystems: supply and demand of urban and rural commerce, carbon emissions of logistics and rural logistics economy. The relationship between them is analyzed. Secondly, by using the method of system dynamics, the causal loop diagram is drawn and the main feedback loop is sorted out. Taking rural logistics in Jiangsu Province as an example, the parameters and variables in the model are assigned and input the corresponding functions. The validity and authenticity of the model are tested. Finally, the following three parts are studied through the tested model: one is the main variables in the prediction model, the other is to adjust the parameters from the environmental protection input, energy technology. The model is optimized from six aspects, such as the mode of transportation of goods, the processing of agricultural products, the investment of logistics and the introduction of carbon tax. The third part is based on the optimization analysis of the model and the actual situation of rural areas in Jiangsu Province. The combination policy and carbon tax policy are put forward and evaluated and analyzed. The results show that the rural economy in Jiangsu is in a period of rapid development, and the contradiction between supply and demand of rural logistics becomes more and more fierce. The carbon emissions of rural logistics also increased; Through optimization analysis, it is found that environmental protection input, energy technology, rural logistics investment, agricultural products processing, freight transportation mode and carbon tax are the effective factors to promote the transition from rural logistics to low carbonization. Through the analysis of carbon productivity and decoupling index, we can know that the implementation of portfolio policy can effectively change the current situation of rural logistics, and carbon tax policy has better effect than portfolio policy. However, the existing low-carbon technology and governance efficiency in our country has not reached the implementation conditions, so it is necessary for the government to provide low-carbon subsidies and carbon tax return so that the revenue of the logistics industry exceeds the expenditure in order to achieve the ideal effect.
【學位授予單位】：江蘇大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F326.6;F259.2

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 朱莉;馬錚;丁家蘭;金丹丹;;低碳理念下基于超網絡的物流企業(yè)車輛資源合作研究[J];科技管理研究;2016年24期

2 姚冠新;錢以臨;;城鄉(xiāng)一體化背景下農村物流系統(tǒng)的動力學政策優(yōu)化[J];江蘇農業(yè)科學;2016年06期

3 周銀香;;交通碳排放與行業(yè)經濟增長脫鉤及耦合關系研究——基于Tapio脫鉤模型和協整理論[J];經濟問題探索;2016年06期

4 姚冠新;邊曉雨;何勇;;交通需求管理視角下我國低碳農村物流系統(tǒng)優(yōu)化[J];物流科技;2016年05期

5 張喜才;;電商背景下村級物流發(fā)展模式研究[J];農業(yè)經濟與管理;2016年02期

6 張立國;李東;;中國物流業(yè)能源消耗、碳排放與行業(yè)發(fā)展關系分析[J];科技管理研究;2015年24期

7 韓俊德;杜其光;;物聯網技術在生鮮農產品配送中的應用[J];中國流通經濟;2015年12期

8 孫睿;;Tapio脫鉤指數測算方法的改進及其應用[J];技術經濟與管理研究;2014年08期

9 史垎馨;;PAS2050規(guī)范下物流服務碳足跡研究[J];物流工程與管理;2014年05期

10 孫琪恒;杜文龍;;遼寧果蔬類農產品低碳物流發(fā)展策略研究[J];物流技術;2014年09期

相關博士學位論文 前1條

1 盧立新;基于循環(huán)經濟的農林剩余物物流網絡構建與利益分配研究[D];中南林業(yè)科技大學;2013年

相關碩士學位論文 前7條

1 肖立君;碳稅與補貼政策結合下的低碳供應鏈優(yōu)化策略研究[D];東華大學;2016年

2 賀芬芳;交通運輸業(yè)節(jié)能減排系統(tǒng)動力學模型研究[D];大連海事大學;2015年

3 束晨輝;基于綠色環(huán)保的北京市快遞物流政策模擬研究[D];北京交通大學;2015年

4 謝偉杰;基于系統(tǒng)動力學的交通運輸與區(qū)域經濟互動關系研究[D];西南交通大學;2011年

5 龐麗;基于系統(tǒng)動力學的環(huán)境友好型物流系統(tǒng)模型研究[D];大連海事大學;2011年

6 尹石磊;現代農村生態(tài)物流研究[D];華中科技大學;2007年

7 鄧鐵乾;基于RFID的農資物流分銷體系與技術研究[D];華中科技大學;2006年

，

本文編號：1400520