本文關(guān)鍵詞：低碳經(jīng)濟視角下農(nóng)村物流系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)建模及優(yōu)化研究　出處：《江蘇大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：在當(dāng)前主推低碳經(jīng)濟的潮流下,高能耗、高排放、低效率的傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)村物流已經(jīng)成為制約農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)性發(fā)展的枷鎖。而為了促進農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟和環(huán)境的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展以實現(xiàn)低碳經(jīng)濟,推動農(nóng)村物流的產(chǎn)業(yè)升級和低碳轉(zhuǎn)型成為打開枷鎖的重要一步。以促進我國農(nóng)村物流由傳統(tǒng)向現(xiàn)代化、低碳化轉(zhuǎn)型為研究目的,構(gòu)建低碳經(jīng)濟視角下的農(nóng)村物流系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型,并進行優(yōu)化分析和政策模擬為農(nóng)村物流的低碳化提供對策建議。主要包括以下內(nèi)容:在相關(guān)理論和文獻研究的基礎(chǔ)上,明確了低碳經(jīng)濟視角下農(nóng)村物流的定義、主要功能、基礎(chǔ)要素和構(gòu)成。并從低碳經(jīng)濟視角出發(fā)將農(nóng)村物流系統(tǒng)分為城鄉(xiāng)商貿(mào)供需、物流碳排放和農(nóng)村物流經(jīng)濟三個子系統(tǒng),對其相互之間的關(guān)系進行分析。其次運用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)的方法,繪制因果回路圖并理清主要的反饋回路,以此構(gòu)建低碳經(jīng)濟視角下農(nóng)村物流的SD流圖。以江蘇省農(nóng)村物流為例對模型中的參數(shù)和變量賦值和輸入相應(yīng)函數(shù)后,進行了模型的有效性與真實性檢驗。最后通過已檢驗的模型做了以下三部分的研究:一是預(yù)測模型中的主要變量,二是通過參數(shù)調(diào)整從環(huán)保投入、能源技術(shù)、貨物運輸方式、農(nóng)產(chǎn)品加工、物流投資和引入碳稅等六個方面對模型進行優(yōu)化分析,三是根據(jù)模型的優(yōu)化分析以及江蘇省農(nóng)村的實際情況,提出了組合政策和碳稅政策并進行評價分析。分析結(jié)果表明,江蘇農(nóng)村的經(jīng)濟正處于高速發(fā)展期,農(nóng)村物流的供需矛盾也隨之愈發(fā)激烈,而農(nóng)村物流的碳排放量也隨之增多;通過優(yōu)化分析發(fā)現(xiàn),環(huán)保投入、能源技術(shù)、農(nóng)村物流投資、農(nóng)產(chǎn)品加工、貨物運輸方式和碳稅都是促進農(nóng)村物流向低碳化轉(zhuǎn)型的有效影響因素;通過分析碳生產(chǎn)率和脫鉤指數(shù)可知,和未采用政策的情況相比,組合政策的實施可以有效改變農(nóng)村物流的現(xiàn)狀,而碳稅政策雖然比組合政策有更好的效果,但我國現(xiàn)有的低碳技術(shù)和治理效率還未達到實施條件,需要通過政府提供低碳補貼和碳稅返還使物流業(yè)的收益大于支出才能實現(xiàn)理想效果。
[Abstract]:In the current trend of low carbon economy, high energy consumption, high emissions. Inefficient traditional rural logistics has become a constraint on the sustainable development of rural economy, and in order to promote the coordinated development of rural economy and the environment to achieve low-carbon economy. To promote the upgrading of rural logistics industry and low-carbon transformation has become an important step to open the shackles in order to promote the transformation of rural logistics from traditional to modern low-carbon for the purpose of research. Constructing the dynamic model of rural logistics system from the perspective of low-carbon economy. And carry on the optimization analysis and policy simulation to provide the countermeasure suggestion for the low carbonization of the rural logistics. Mainly includes the following contents: on the basis of the related theory and the literature research, has clarified the definition of the rural logistics under the low carbon economy angle of view. From the perspective of low-carbon economy, the rural logistics system is divided into three subsystems: supply and demand of urban and rural commerce, carbon emissions of logistics and rural logistics economy. The relationship between them is analyzed. Secondly, by using the method of system dynamics, the causal loop diagram is drawn and the main feedback loop is sorted out. Taking rural logistics in Jiangsu Province as an example, the parameters and variables in the model are assigned and input the corresponding functions. The validity and authenticity of the model are tested. Finally, the following three parts are studied through the tested model: one is the main variables in the prediction model, the other is to adjust the parameters from the environmental protection input, energy technology. The model is optimized from six aspects, such as the mode of transportation of goods, the processing of agricultural products, the investment of logistics and the introduction of carbon tax. The third part is based on the optimization analysis of the model and the actual situation of rural areas in Jiangsu Province. The combination policy and carbon tax policy are put forward and evaluated and analyzed. The results show that the rural economy in Jiangsu is in a period of rapid development, and the contradiction between supply and demand of rural logistics becomes more and more fierce. The carbon emissions of rural logistics also increased; Through optimization analysis, it is found that environmental protection input, energy technology, rural logistics investment, agricultural products processing, freight transportation mode and carbon tax are the effective factors to promote the transition from rural logistics to low carbonization. Through the analysis of carbon productivity and decoupling index, we can know that the implementation of portfolio policy can effectively change the current situation of rural logistics, and carbon tax policy has better effect than portfolio policy. However, the existing low-carbon technology and governance efficiency in our country has not reached the implementation conditions, so it is necessary for the government to provide low-carbon subsidies and carbon tax return so that the revenue of the logistics industry exceeds the expenditure in order to achieve the ideal effect.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江蘇大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F326.6;F259.2

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