旅游業(yè)是服務(wù)業(yè)國(guó)際貿(mào)易的一個(gè)主要類別,經(jīng)歷了強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)、持續(xù)擴(kuò)張和變,成為世界上最突出和發(fā)展最快的經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)之一。全世界對(duì)旅行的需求不斷增加,為國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)和為世界各國(guó)創(chuàng)造就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)做出了重大貢獻(xiàn)。在泰國(guó),旅游業(yè)在對(duì)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要性方面與制造業(yè)相媲美,并已成為泰國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的新動(dòng)力。即使面對(duì)全球形勢(shì)的諸多變化、意外事件的發(fā)生以及泰國(guó)自身的國(guó)內(nèi)情況,這種增長(zhǎng)仍在繼續(xù)。近年來,泰國(guó)充滿活力的旅游業(yè)在經(jīng)濟(jì)中發(fā)揮著越來越重要的作用,推動(dòng)了許多與旅游相關(guān)的業(yè)務(wù),并幫助彌補(bǔ)了其他行業(yè)的疲弱增長(zhǎng)。最近,泰國(guó)旅游業(yè)的增長(zhǎng)尤其受中國(guó)游客數(shù)量成倍增長(zhǎng)的驅(qū)動(dòng);然而,泰國(guó)也面臨著來自鄰國(guó)的更激烈的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。此外,全球旅游格局往往會(huì)因各國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)、旅游偏好、主要趨勢(shì)和法規(guī)以及國(guó)際穩(wěn)定而頻繁變化。因此,深入了解泰國(guó)旅游業(yè)的主要決定因素,對(duì)于維持泰國(guó)旅游業(yè)的增長(zhǎng)和增強(qiáng)泰國(guó)旅游業(yè)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力至關(guān)重要。本文試圖從經(jīng)濟(jì)角度,結(jié)合非經(jīng)濟(jì)因素和其他外部因素,探討支撐國(guó)際泰國(guó)出境旅游的因素。為了實(shí)現(xiàn)本文之目的,本文采用定性和定量分析相結(jié)合的方法,并結(jié)合使用計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的估計(jì)方法。本文是由八個(gè)章節(jié)組成的,前兩章是后續(xù)章節(jié)的背景,概述了泰國(guó)的旅游業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和... 

【文章來源】：對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)北京市 211工程院校 教育部直屬院校

【文章頁(yè)數(shù)】：206 頁(yè)

【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士

【文章目錄】：
摘要
Abstract
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations
Chapter 1:Introduction
    1.1 Background
    1.2 Significance and Originalities of the Study
        1.2.1 Significance of Study
        1.2.2 Originalities of the Study
    1.3 Objectives of the Study
        1.3.1 General Objective
        1.3.2 Specific Objective
    1.4 Research Questions
    1.5 Scopes of Study
    1.6 Limitations and Directions for Further Studies
Chapter 2:Literature Review
    2.1 International Tourism Demand Literature
    2.2 Traditional Methodology of Tourism Demand Modelling
    2.3 Recent Methodological Developments in Tourism Demand Modelling
        2.3.1 Econometric Models
        2.3.2 The Application of Consumer Demand Theory in Modelling Tourism Demand
        2.3.3 Single Equation Approach in International Tourism Demand Modelling
        2.3.4 System-of-Equations Approach
        2.3.5 Panel Data Model
    2.4 A Theoretical Framework for Tourism Demand
        2.4.1 Economic Demand Theory
        2.4.2 International Trade Theory
        2.4.3 Theoretical Framework of the Gravity Model
    2.5 Research Gaps
Chapter 3:Overview Thailand’s Tourism Industry and Development
    3.1 Overview of Thailand Tourism
        3.1.1 International Tourism in Thailand
    3.2 The Important of Tourism in Thailand
        3.2.1 The Important of Domestic Tourism in Thailand
        3.2.2 The Important of International Tourism in Thailand
    3.3 History of tourism development and tourism policy in Thailand
    3.4 Analysis of Comparative Advantage of Thai Tourism Compared to Other Countries
    3.5 SWOT Analysis of Tourism in Thailand
        3.5.1 Strengths
        3.5.2 Opportunities
        3.5.3 Weaknesses
        3.5.4 Threats
Chapter 4:Overview of Tourism Characteristics and Travel Patterns in Thailand
    4.1.Overview of International Tourism in Thailand
        4.1.1 Number of International Tourists
        4.1.2 International Tourism Receipts
        4.1.3 Length of Stay
        4.1.4 Seasonal Distribution of International Tourist Arrivals in Thailand
        4.1.5 Spatial Distribution of International Tourist Arrivals in Thailand
    4.2 The Dynamism of the Chinese Outbound Tourism Market
        4.2.1 The Evolution of Chinese Outbound Market
        4.2.2 Chinese Arrivals and Receipts in Thailand
        4.2.3 Seasonal Distribution of Chinese Arrivals in Thailand
        4.2.4 Outbound Chinese Tourism Expenditure（Consumption）
Chapter 5:Overview the Determinants of International Tourism Industry
    5.1 Measurement of Demand for Tourism
        5.1.1 Tourist Arrivals
        5.1.2 Tourist Expenditure
        5.1.3 Length of Stay
    5.2 Determinants of International Tourism Demand（Explanatory Variables）
        5.2.1 Income
        5.2.2 Price
        5.2.3 Prices of Substitute（Alternative）Destinations
        5.2.4 Exchange Rate
        5.2.5 Lagged Dependent Variable
        5.2.6 International Trade
        5.2.7 Qualitative Effects
    5.3 Demand Elasticity
        5.3.1 Income Elasticities/ Income Effect
        5.3.2 Price Elasticities
Chapter 6:Research Methodology and Method
    6.1 Model Construction
    6.2 Functional Forms
    6.3 Model Selection
    6.4 Econometric Methods
    6.5 Estimation Procedure
    6.6 Data Sources
    6.7 Variable Selection
        6.7.1 Dependent Variables
        6.7.2 Explanatory Variables
    6.8 Diagnostic Checking
        6.8.1 Multicollinearity Test
        6.8.2 Model Selection（Fixed-Effects or Random-Effects Model）
        6.8.3 Testing for Heteroskedasticity
        6.8.4.Testing for Serial Correlation
        6.8.5 Testing Over-Identifying Restrictions in GMM
Chapter 7:Empirical Analysis and Results
    7.1 Diagnostic Test Results
        7.1.1 Multicollinearity Test
        7.1.2 Hausman Test
        7.1.3 Testing for Heteroskedasticity
        7.1.4 Testing for Serial Correlation
        7.1.5 Testing Over-Identifying Restrictions in GMM
    7.2 Empirical Results
Chapter 8:Conclusion and Recommendations
    8.1 Research Conclusions
    8.2 Recommendations for the Chinese Market
    8.3 Recommendations for Thailand
References
Appendix A
Appendix B
Acknowledgement
Author’s Curriculum Vitae



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