【摘要】：在大眾旅游時(shí)代,我國多處熱門景區(qū)頻繁出現(xiàn)游客擁擠、滯留、踩踏事件,景區(qū)客流管理面臨現(xiàn)實(shí)挑戰(zhàn)。旅游流時(shí)空卡口概念及識(shí)別方法的提出彌補(bǔ)了基于靜態(tài)環(huán)境容量值的景區(qū)客流傳統(tǒng)管理方法的不足,為景區(qū)客流管理從靜態(tài)被動(dòng)式管理向動(dòng)態(tài)實(shí)時(shí)的主動(dòng)管理轉(zhuǎn)變提供了新思路。然而旅游流時(shí)空卡口只是基于現(xiàn)有旅游者時(shí)空分布數(shù)據(jù)提出的,缺乏預(yù)測旅游者未來時(shí)空分布的有效方式,因此還停留在理論構(gòu)想層面。本文以時(shí)間地理學(xué)與概率時(shí)間地理學(xué)為理論基礎(chǔ),以系統(tǒng)仿真為研究方法,在將景區(qū)環(huán)境抽象為出入口、路徑、停留點(diǎn),將旅游者行為分解為旅游者到達(dá)規(guī)則、移動(dòng)停留規(guī)則以及游覽規(guī)則的基礎(chǔ)上,以香港海洋公園為案例地,以WITNESS系統(tǒng)仿真軟件為平臺(tái),建立了基于概率的景區(qū)系統(tǒng)仿真模型,借此來預(yù)測景區(qū)內(nèi)旅游者的時(shí)空分布,為識(shí)別旅游流時(shí)空卡口提供數(shù)據(jù)來源。同時(shí),本文修正了之前通過計(jì)算旅游者停留人數(shù)和停留時(shí)間頻次來識(shí)別旅游流時(shí)空卡口的方法,提出了以旅游流時(shí)空密度指數(shù)作為識(shí)別旅游流時(shí)空卡口的新方法。此外,通過對(duì)香港海洋公園仿真系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行仿真實(shí)驗(yàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)當(dāng)游客規(guī)模設(shè)定為日平均游客接待量時(shí),香港海洋公園旅游流時(shí)空卡口主要集中在冰極天地、夢(mèng)幻水都以及威威天地這三個(gè)景點(diǎn),時(shí)間上大多集中在中午12:00以后。而當(dāng)游客規(guī)模增長時(shí),景區(qū)內(nèi)旅游流時(shí)空卡口的分布也隨之變動(dòng),但游客規(guī)模大小與是否出現(xiàn)旅游流時(shí)空卡口之間并沒有直接的關(guān)系。最后本文從如何有效預(yù)測旅游流時(shí)空卡口、如何避免旅游流時(shí)空卡口出現(xiàn)以及如何管理旅游流時(shí)空卡口三個(gè)方面提出了對(duì)景區(qū)客流管理的建議。本文研究不僅完善了旅游流時(shí)空卡口的理論與識(shí)別方法,具有理論意義,而且在景區(qū)客流調(diào)控、避免游客滯留、保護(hù)景區(qū)資源及游客安全方面也具有重要的實(shí)踐價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:In the era of mass tourism, many popular scenic spots in our country frequently appear crowded, stranded, stampede events, and the tourist flow management of scenic spots is faced with real challenges. The concept and identification method of Spatio-temporal bayonet of tourist flow make up the deficiency of traditional management method of tourist flow based on static environmental capacity. It provides a new idea for the change of tourist flow management from static passive management to dynamic real-time active management. However, the spatio-temporal bayonet of tourist flow is only based on the existing data of the spatial and temporal distribution of tourists, and it lacks of an effective way to predict the future spatial and temporal distribution of tourists, so it stays at the level of theory and conception. Based on the theory of time geography and probabilistic time geography, this paper takes system simulation as the research method, abstracts the scenic spot environment as the entrance and exit, the path, the stop point, and decomposes the tourist behavior into the tourist arrival rule. Taking Hong Kong Ocean Park as an example and WITNESS system simulation software as the platform, a probabilistic simulation model of scenic spot system is established to predict the spatial and temporal distribution of tourists in the scenic area. Provides the data source for identifying the travel flow time and space bayonet. At the same time, this paper corrects the previous method of identifying tourist flow spatio-temporal bayonets by calculating the number of tourists staying and the frequency of residence time, and puts forward a new method to identify tourist flow spatio-temporal bayonets by using the time-space density index of tourist flows. In addition, through the simulation experiment of the Hong Kong Ocean Park simulation system, it is found that when the tourist scale is set at the average daily tourist reception volume, the space-time bayonets of the Hong Kong Ocean Park tourist flow are mainly concentrated in the ice pole world. Dream water and Weiwei Tiandi these three scenic spots, most of the time concentrated at 12:00 after noon. When the tourist scale increases, the distribution of tourist flow time and space bayonet also changes, but there is no direct relationship between the size of tourists and whether there is a tourist flow time and space bayonet. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions on tourist flow management from three aspects: how to effectively predict the tourist flow space-time bayonet, how to avoid the tourist flow space-time bayonet and how to manage the tourist flow space-time bayonet. This paper not only improves the theory and identification method of tourist flow time and space bayonet, but also has important practical value in regulating tourist flow, avoiding tourists staying, protecting scenic area resources and tourist safety.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F592.7

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