【摘要】：隨著中國社會環(huán)境的和諧發(fā)展和人民生活水平的大幅度提高,我國的旅游業(yè)也展現(xiàn)出了它蓬勃的生命力。然而,旅游業(yè)的快速發(fā)展卻提高了旅游景區(qū)管理者科學(xué)決策的難度,尤其是山岳型風(fēng)景區(qū),因其獨(dú)特的地貌特征,在資源調(diào)度和資源保護(hù)方面的問題更加突出、更加難以解決。為了從根源降低山岳型景區(qū)協(xié)調(diào)管理的難度,建立山岳型日客流量預(yù)測模型,從而為景區(qū)管理者提供科學(xué)的決策依據(jù),讓山岳型景區(qū)的旅游環(huán)境能夠在科學(xué)布局和區(qū)別決策中保持健康蓬勃的生命力。論文的主要研究如下:(1)對國內(nèi)外學(xué)者的文獻(xiàn)研究進(jìn)行梳理,以黃山景區(qū)六年的日客流量數(shù)據(jù)特點(diǎn)為研究對象,分析山岳型風(fēng)景區(qū)日客流量的影響因素和變化特點(diǎn)。依據(jù)黃山景區(qū)日客流量的變化特點(diǎn),將其分為平常日客流量和節(jié)假日客流量,從而可以根據(jù)不同時(shí)間節(jié)點(diǎn)的客流量數(shù)據(jù)特點(diǎn),分別構(gòu)建不同的日客流量預(yù)測模型。(2)針對黃山風(fēng)景區(qū)平常日客流量數(shù)據(jù)似線性的特點(diǎn),構(gòu)建基于灰色系統(tǒng)的平常日預(yù)測模型。在研究中,引用GM(1,1)模型作為基礎(chǔ)預(yù)測模型。在研究中,針對基礎(chǔ)模型存在的不足依次做出以下優(yōu)化:以新陳代謝優(yōu)化提高基礎(chǔ)灰色預(yù)測模型預(yù)測結(jié)果的可靠性;以平滑指數(shù)優(yōu)化樣本序列,提高樣本序列的規(guī)律;以殘差修正優(yōu)化樣本序列,提高預(yù)測模型的精度。最后通過幾種優(yōu)化方法的組合,建立基于灰色系統(tǒng)組合優(yōu)化的平常日客流量預(yù)測模型。實(shí)驗(yàn)證明,基于灰色預(yù)測組合優(yōu)化的平常日客流量預(yù)測模型符合預(yù)測精度的要求,且預(yù)測效果優(yōu)于神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型。(3)針對黃山景區(qū)節(jié)假日客流量數(shù)據(jù)周期性強(qiáng)的特點(diǎn),構(gòu)建基于神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的節(jié)假日預(yù)測模型。選取黃山景區(qū)節(jié)假日客流量為模型樣本,通過對比不同的影響因素和參數(shù)值的預(yù)測模型精度,確定模型的構(gòu)建要素。實(shí)驗(yàn)證明,基于神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的預(yù)測模型比基于灰色系統(tǒng)的預(yù)測模型更適合節(jié)假日預(yù)測。
[Abstract]:With the harmonious development of Chinese social environment and the improvement of people's living standard, the tourism industry of our country has also shown its vigorous vitality. However, the rapid development of tourism has increased the difficulty of scientific decision-making of scenic spot managers, especially the mountain scenic spot, because of its unique geomorphological characteristics, the problems in resource scheduling and resource protection are more prominent and more difficult to solve. In order to reduce the difficulty of coordinated management of mountain scenic spots from the root causes, establish the forecasting model of daily passenger flow of mountain type, and provide scientific decision basis for scenic spot managers. The tourism environment of mountain scenic spot can maintain healthy and vigorous vitality in scientific layout and differentiation decision. The main research of this paper is as follows: (1) combing the literature research of domestic and foreign scholars, taking the characteristics of daily passenger flow data of six years in Huangshan scenic spot as the research object, analyzing the influencing factors and changing characteristics of the daily passenger flow of mountain scenic spot. According to the characteristics of daily passenger flow in Huangshan scenic area, it can be divided into normal daily passenger flow and holiday passenger flow, which can be based on the characteristics of passenger flow data of different time nodes. Different daily passenger flow forecasting models are constructed respectively. (2) according to the characteristic that the daily passenger flow data of Huangshan Scenic spot appear linear, the daily forecasting model based on grey system is constructed. In the study, the GM (1 + 1) model is used as the basic prediction model. In the research, the following optimization is made according to the shortcomings of the basic model: to improve the reliability of the prediction results of the basic grey prediction model by metabolic optimization, to optimize the sample sequence by smoothing index, and to improve the regularity of the sample sequence. The precision of the prediction model is improved by modifying the sample sequence with residual error. Finally, through the combination of several optimization methods, a daily passenger flow forecasting model based on grey system combination optimization is established. The experiment proves that the daily passenger flow forecasting model based on grey forecast combination optimization meets the requirement of forecasting precision and the forecasting effect is better than that of neural network model. (3) aiming at the strong periodicity of holiday passenger flow data in Huangshan scenic spot, The holiday prediction model based on neural network is constructed. Huangshan scenic spot holiday passenger flow as model sample, by comparing different factors and parameters of the prediction model accuracy, determine the building elements of the model. Experimental results show that the prediction model based on neural network is more suitable for holiday prediction than that based on grey system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：合肥工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F592.7

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