【摘要】：近20年來,隨著旅游業(yè)發(fā)展成為我國上下普遍關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn),安徽省旅游業(yè)獲得了快速發(fā)展。對安徽省地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)貢獻(xiàn)也不斷增大,成為安徽省地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的主要驅(qū)動力之一。充分發(fā)揮安徽省在自然、氣候環(huán)境、地理等方面的優(yōu)勢,重點(diǎn)發(fā)展旅游業(yè),增加旅游收入,進(jìn)而可以促進(jìn)安徽省地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。 作為安徽省高度重視的產(chǎn)業(yè)之一,雖然近年來,安徽省旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的速度比較快,但是其增長的波動性也比較大,容易受到外界因素的干擾。并且對于安徽省內(nèi)部各地市來說,旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長又存在著較大的地區(qū)差異。于是,本人便有了下面一些疑問。怎樣才能保持安徽省旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定且持續(xù)地增長?安徽省各地市旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)能否獲得協(xié)同增長?決定安徽省全區(qū)及各地市旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的因素又是什么?從目前的研究成果來看,還未有學(xué)者對安徽省上述的這些問題進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)的研究。因此,本文在深入認(rèn)識安徽省旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)增長現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上,通過建立非線性主成分回歸模型探索安徽省旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的主要影響因素,采用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析方法進(jìn)一步研究影響安徽省各地市旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)增長因素及其之間可能存在的差異,最后得出結(jié)論,希望通過本文的研究能提出一些針對性的對策建議,從而促進(jìn)安徽省全區(qū)旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定持續(xù)增長及地區(qū)旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)同增長。 本文的主要內(nèi)容安排如下： 第一章緒論。主要包括研究課題的背景、對相關(guān)的研究進(jìn)展進(jìn)行述評、研究的意義、研究所采用的方法、研究思路與創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)。相關(guān)研究文獻(xiàn)的回顧與評述包括經(jīng)濟(jì)增長因素的研究、旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的理論研究和旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)增長因素的定量研究,這部分主要是為本文的研究課題提供思路上的參考。 第二章相關(guān)理論基礎(chǔ)與重要概念的界定。闡述與本論文研究課題相關(guān)的理論基礎(chǔ)及核心概念。核心概念圍繞著研究課題展開的,包括經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長機(jī)制和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模型等概念。理論基礎(chǔ)方面,除了介紹了主流的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論外,還涉及到區(qū)域增長極理論和區(qū)域不平衡增長理論。本章是本文的理論基礎(chǔ)部分,為本論文對旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)增長因素的研究提供理論上的指導(dǎo)。 第三章描述安徽省旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的現(xiàn)狀。分析的視角包括安徽省整體和地區(qū)兩個方面。安徽省全區(qū)旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)增長現(xiàn)狀的分析,包括全區(qū)旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的基本特點(diǎn)、旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度是否穩(wěn)定持久以及旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)增長對地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)情況。安徽省各地市旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的空間格局分析,主要分析了各地市旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)在規(guī)模和增長速度上是否存在明顯差異以及兩者之間是否存在相關(guān)性,并從絕對差異和相對差異角度進(jìn)一步分析了各地市旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)增長差異的變遷。 第四章探索安徽省旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)增長因素并測算因素的貢獻(xiàn)率。本章結(jié)合經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論和旅游業(yè)自身發(fā)展的特點(diǎn),構(gòu)建了旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)增長因素體系及其衡量指標(biāo)。在此基礎(chǔ)上建立非線性主成分回歸模型對安徽省旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響因素進(jìn)行實證分析,估計影響因素的彈性參數(shù),并計算了各影響因素的貢獻(xiàn)度。 第五章安徽省旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)增長因素的地區(qū)差異分析。以第四章構(gòu)建的旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)增長因素體系為基礎(chǔ),利用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析,考察各因素與安徽省各地市旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)聯(lián)性。在得出關(guān)聯(lián)度的基礎(chǔ)上,分析了影響因素在地區(qū)上的異同。 第六章總結(jié)上述章節(jié)的研究結(jié)論,并依此提出幾點(diǎn)建議,為安徽省今后旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)更加健康地發(fā)展提供參考。
[Abstract]:In the past 20 years, with the development of tourism becoming the focus of our country's attention, Anhui's tourism has achieved rapid development. Its contribution to Anhui's economy is also increasing, and it has become one of the main driving forces of Anhui's regional economic growth. Tourism can increase tourism revenue and further promote the development of Anhui's regional economy.
As one of the industries that Anhui Province attaches great importance to, although in recent years, Anhui Province's tourism economic growth rate is relatively fast, but its growth volatility is relatively large, easy to be interfered by external factors. The following are some questions. How can we maintain the stable and sustained growth of Anhui tourism economy? Can the tourism economy of all cities in Anhui Province achieve coordinated growth? What are the factors that determine the growth of Anhui tourism economy? From the current research results, there is no scholar to Anhui Province above-mentioned problems. Therefore, on the basis of thorough understanding of the current situation of tourism economic growth in Anhui Province, this paper explores the main factors influencing tourism economic growth in Anhui Province by establishing a nonlinear principal component regression model, and further studies the factors influencing tourism economic growth in Anhui Province and their possible existence by using grey relational analysis method. In the end, the paper draws a conclusion, hoping to put forward some targeted countermeasures and suggestions through this study, so as to promote the steady and sustained growth of Anhui tourism economy and the coordinated growth of regional tourism economy.
The main contents of this article are as follows:
The first chapter is an introduction. It mainly includes the background of the research subject, the review of the related research progress, the significance of the research, the methods adopted, the research ideas and innovations. This part mainly provides a reference for the research topic in this paper.
Chapter 2 defines the relevant theoretical basis and important concepts. It expounds the theoretical basis and core concepts related to the research topic of this paper. The core concepts focus on the research topic, including the concepts of economic growth, economic growth mechanism and economic growth model. This chapter is the theoretical basis of this paper, which provides theoretical guidance for the study of tourism economic growth factors.
The third chapter describes the current situation of tourism economic growth in Anhui Province. The analysis perspective includes the overall and regional aspects of Anhui Province. This paper analyzes the spatial pattern of tourism economic growth in Anhui Province, mainly analyzes whether there are obvious differences in the scale and growth rate of tourism economy in different cities and whether there is correlation between them, and further analyzes the changes of tourism economic growth differences in different cities from the perspective of absolute differences and relative differences.
Chapter Four explores the factors of tourism economic growth in Anhui Province and calculates the contribution rate of the factors. Combining the theory of economic growth and the characteristics of tourism development, this chapter constructs the factor system of tourism economic growth and its measurement index. Empirical analysis is used to estimate the elastic parameters of the influencing factors and the contribution of each factor is calculated.
The fifth chapter analyzes the regional differences of tourism economic growth factors in Anhui Province. Based on the tourism economic growth factor system constructed in the fourth chapter, the grey relational analysis is used to investigate the correlation between various factors and tourism economic growth in Anhui Province.
Chapter 6 summarizes the research conclusions of the above chapters and puts forward some suggestions for the future development of Anhui tourism economy in a more healthy way.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F592.7

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