發(fā)布時間：2018-07-05 14:24

  本文選題：旅行時間價值 + 參照點依賴　； 參考：《北京交通大學》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：摘要：在運輸經濟學中,研究旅行時間價值的重要性顯而易見。早在20世紀60年代,學者們就已經對旅行時間價值進行了大量的理論與實證研究。一般研究認為,旅行時間價值是不易受到決策主體的經歷、預期或稟賦影響的,其價值的節(jié)約是提高時間資源利用效率的最直接形式,同時也是促進交通運輸業(yè)不斷發(fā)展的基本動力。然而,由于旅行時間本身的不可逆性與不可交易性,又會使其價值評判在很大程度帶有主觀性,這可以體現(xiàn)為大多數(shù)旅行者為旅行時間損失和收益所賦予的價值是不對稱的：損失的旅行時間價值要高于收益。伴隨著經濟的高速發(fā)展與交通運輸技術的不斷成熟完善,人們對旅行時間價值的評價觀念已經發(fā)生了重大轉向：從單純節(jié)約的視角轉變?yōu)樵絹碓綇娬{包括準時可靠在內的損失厭惡視角。而從這種轉向來看,旅行時間價值對于人們的意義更應該在于不要讓旅行時間延誤造成更大的損失。同時,這種評價觀念的轉向也意味著交通運輸業(yè)的發(fā)展面臨著重要的階段性轉變。因此,從損失厭惡視角對旅行時間價值進行重新審視和計量也就具有了重要的理論與現(xiàn)實意義。 在利用效用理論研究旅行時間價值的眾多研究中,由于很少有學者從損失厭惡的視角來考察旅行時間價值,這就導致了傳統(tǒng)分析方法存在一個缺陷——忽視了參照點的重要作用。因此,從這種意義上來說,傳統(tǒng)的旅行時間價值研究應該是一種單一視角的靜態(tài)分析思路和方法�；诖�,作者在假設交通運輸需求作為一種衍生需求的前提下,從出行選擇角度出發(fā)對傳統(tǒng)旅行時問價值研究范式進行修正,其主要工作與研究觀點如下：一、從出行選擇角度出發(fā),創(chuàng)新性地將參照點引入旅行時間-運輸費用替代關系的無差異曲線分析中,并依據參照點位置對旅行時間進行了“收益”和“損失”區(qū)分,進而建立了一個損失與節(jié)約并舉的雙重視角旅行時間價值分析框架,來闡釋人們在評價旅行時間價值時的路徑依賴現(xiàn)象與損失厭惡效應。而從深化研究的視角來看,該分析框架有助于進一步闡述旅行時間價值的可靠性與非勻質性,并得出相對旅行時間價值對出行選擇影響更大的推論。二,利用參照點依賴分析框架改進傳統(tǒng)的旅行時間價值研究模型,有助于驗證普遍存在的旅行時間價值損失厭惡效應。同時,該模型也得出了人們對旅行時間的損失厭惡程度要高于對票價的損失厭惡程度的經驗規(guī)則。三,根據參照點依賴的旅行時間價值模型推導出的運輸系統(tǒng)或通道的旅行時間價值測算模型具有較強的操作性,這對改進單一節(jié)約視角來測算旅行時間價值模型的缺陷,重新認識運輸系統(tǒng)評估體系以及完善交通規(guī)劃模型構建等多方面具有重要的啟示。 除此之外,參照點依賴的分析思路可能應用的領域還包括旅行時間的彈性分析、“錯時上下班”政策解釋和旅行時間服務滿意度探討等。
[Abstract]:Abstract: in transportation economics, the importance of studying the value of travel time is obvious. As early as 1960s, scholars have carried out a large number of theoretical and empirical studies on the value of travel time. The general study holds that the value of travel time is not easy to be affected by the experience of the decision maker, the expectation or endowment, and the saving of its value. It is the most direct form of improving the efficiency of the use of time resources, and it is also the basic driving force to promote the continuous development of the transportation industry. However, the irreversibility and non tradability of the travel time itself will make the evaluation of its value subjectivism to a great extent, which can be the loss and benefit of travel time for most travellers. The value given is asymmetrical: the value of the lost travel time is higher than the income. With the rapid development of the economy and the continuous maturity of transportation technology, the concept of the value of travel time has been changed greatly: from the perspective of simple economy to more and more emphasis on punctual reliability, including on time and reliability. From this turn of view, the value of travel time is more important to people than the delay of travel time. At the same time, the change of the concept of evaluation means that the development of transportation industry is facing an important phase change. Therefore, the travel time price from the angle of loss aversion Reexamination and measurement of value also have important theoretical and practical significance.
In many studies using utility theory to study the value of travel time, because few scholars examine the value of travel time from the perspective of loss aversion, it leads to the existence of a defect in traditional analysis methods - neglecting the important role of reference points. Therefore, in this sense, the study of the value of the traditional travel time should be studied in this sense. Based on this, the author, based on the assumption of transportation demand as a derivative demand, modifies the traditional travel time value research paradigm from the point of view of travel choice. The main work and research views are as follows: first, from the perspective of travel choice, it will be innovative. The reference point is introduced into the non difference curve analysis of travel time transportation cost substitution relationship and the distinction between "income" and "loss" according to the position of reference point, and then a dual view of travel time value analysis framework is set up to explain the value of travel time value. Path dependence and loss aversion effect. From the perspective of deepening research, the framework helps to further elaborate the reliability and heterogeneity of travel time value, and draws a greater inference on the impact of travel time value on travel choice. Two, the use of reference point dependence analysis framework to improve the value of traditional travel time value. Research model helps to verify the widespread loss aversion effect of travel time value. At the same time, the model also draws the experience rule that people's loss aversion to travel time is higher than the loss aversion to ticket price. Three, travel system or channel travel derived from the travel time value model of reference point dependent travel time. The time value calculation model has strong operability, which has important inspiration for improving the single saving perspective to measure the defect of travel time value model, re understanding the evaluation system of transportation system and perfecting the construction of traffic planning model.
In addition, the possible applications of the reference point dependence analysis also include the elastic analysis of travel time, the policy interpretation of the wrong time and the discussion of the satisfaction of travel time services, and so on.
【學位授予單位】：北京交通大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F592

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本文編號：2100505