本文選題：旅游經(jīng)濟(jì) + 主成分回歸　； 參考：《遼寧大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：2016年中國國內(nèi)旅游總收入高達(dá)3.9萬億元,旅游外匯收入達(dá)1200億美元,這些數(shù)據(jù)說明上個世紀(jì)末開始興起的旅游業(yè)發(fā)展至今創(chuàng)造的經(jīng)濟(jì)收入越來越多,發(fā)展的速度越來越迅猛,并且旅游收入增長已經(jīng)成為了推動國民經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的極大助動力。作為GDP增速首屈一指的浙江省,旅游收入的增長速度大大的超過了生產(chǎn)總值的增長速度。除此之外,浙江省獨(dú)特的地理位置和自然資源的優(yōu)勢以及先進(jìn)的發(fā)展觀念使其在發(fā)展旅游業(yè)方面更加具有優(yōu)勢。在十多年的發(fā)展過程中,浙江省給出的成績也不負(fù)眾望,遙遙領(lǐng)先于其他資源稟賦優(yōu)于本省的省會。盡管近幾年浙江省的旅游收入所占比重大,增速快,但依然出現(xiàn)了不穩(wěn)定和不持續(xù)的趨勢,對外界干擾所做出的自我調(diào)整能力比較弱。并且,即使在資源稟賦相近的條件下,浙江省各個城市之間的旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)收入差距比較大。于是,出現(xiàn)了以下一些疑問,浙江省總體旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展較好,但是不同區(qū)域的發(fā)展情況是怎樣的?這些區(qū)域的差異性是否呈現(xiàn)某些特定的規(guī)律?到底是什么樣的因素影響著浙江省旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展?這些因素對浙江省旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的影響程度是一樣的,還是各有差異?在以后對旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展過程中,應(yīng)該怎樣對待不同的因素?雖然研究旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)的文獻(xiàn)有很多,但是具體到浙江省的卻并沒有。故此,本文在介紹浙江省整省和11個市旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀基礎(chǔ)上,通過收集旅游相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)和建立主成分非線性回歸模型和灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度模型探討影響浙江省旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的因素。最終得出這些因素對其影響程度,給旅游市場的發(fā)展以借鑒。主要安排如下:第一章研究綜述和相關(guān)理論介紹國內(nèi)外的研究綜述和相關(guān)的理論。這部分內(nèi)容主要是提供一些方法和思路的借鑒和所需要的相關(guān)理論。第二章浙江省旅游發(fā)展分析這部分從浙江省的實(shí)際角度出發(fā),分析了11個市的數(shù)據(jù),整理浙江省的旅游發(fā)展規(guī)律。第三章浙江省旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)增長因素分析從定量的角度,利用數(shù)據(jù)整理和模型建立分析各類因素對浙江省旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的影響程度,引導(dǎo)今后浙江省的旅游發(fā)展第四章主要結(jié)論和討論給出文章的一些主要結(jié)論
[Abstract]:China's domestic tourism revenue reached 3.9 trillion yuan in 2016 and tourism foreign exchange income reached 120 billion US dollars. These figures show that the tourism industry, which began to rise at the end of the last century, has generated more and more economic income and has been developing more and more rapidly. And the growth of tourism income has become a great help to promote the growth of the national economy. As the GDP growth rate of Zhejiang Province, the growth rate of tourism income is much faster than the growth rate of gross domestic product. In addition, Zhejiang's unique geographical location, natural resources and advanced concept of development make it more advantageous in the development of tourism. In the course of more than a decade of development, Zhejiang Province's achievements have not fallen short of expectations, far ahead of other resource endowments, which are superior to those of the provincial capital. Although the proportion of tourism income in Zhejiang Province is large and the growth rate is fast in recent years, there is still an unstable and unsustainable trend, and the ability to make self-adjustment to external disturbance is relatively weak. Moreover, even under the condition of similar resource endowment, the income gap of tourism economy among cities in Zhejiang Province is quite large. As a result, there are some questions, Zhejiang Province as a whole tourism economic development is good, but the development of different regions is how? Do the differences in these regions show certain laws? What kind of factors affect the development of tourism economy in Zhejiang Province? Are these factors affecting the development of tourism economy in Zhejiang Province to the same extent, or are they different? How to deal with different factors in the development of tourism economy in the future? Although there are a lot of literature on tourism economy, but not in Zhejiang Province. Therefore, on the basis of introducing the current situation of tourism economy development in Zhejiang Province as a whole and in 11 cities, Based on the collection of tourism data and the establishment of principal component nonlinear regression model and grey relational degree model, the factors influencing the development of tourism economy in Zhejiang Province are discussed. Finally, the influence of these factors on its degree, to the development of the tourism market to draw lessons. The main contents are as follows: the first chapter introduces the research review and related theories at home and abroad. This part is mainly to provide some methods and ideas for reference and the need for relevant theories. The second chapter analyzes the tourism development of Zhejiang Province from the point of view of the actual situation of Zhejiang Province, analyzes the data of 11 cities, and collates the rules of tourism development in Zhejiang Province. The third chapter analyzes the factors of tourism economic growth in Zhejiang Province from the perspective of quantitative analysis, using data collation and modeling to analyze the impact of various factors on the development of tourism economy in Zhejiang Province. Guiding the Tourism Development of Zhejiang Province in the Future Chapter IV main conclusions and discussion some main conclusions of the article
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F592.7

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