本文關鍵詞：干旱災害風險評估技術及其科學問題與展望，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

干旱災害風險評估技術及其科學問題與展望

Drought Risk Assessment Technological Progresses and Problems

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5]

YAO Yubi;ZHANG Qiang;LI Yaohui;WANG Ying;WANG Jingsong;China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster,Gansu Province Key Laboratory

[1]中國氣象局蘭州干旱氣象研究所甘肅省干旱氣候變化與減災重點實驗室,中國氣象局干旱氣候變化與減災重點開放實驗室,蘭州730020; [2]甘肅省定西市氣象局,定西743000

文章摘要：在全球變暖的背景下,干旱發(fā)生的頻率和強度呈增加趨勢,由于干旱災害所引發(fā)的水資源匱乏、糧食危機、生態(tài)惡化（如荒漠化）等,直接威脅到國家的糧食安全和社會經濟發(fā)展,干旱災害風險評估及應急管理的技術水平亟待提高。本文介紹了干旱災害風險評估研究領域的主要科技進展。在系統總結以往研究成果基礎上,進行了干旱災害風險分析,闡述了對干旱風險評估的科學認識,歸納了災害致災因子危險性、孕災環(huán)境的脆弱性、承災體暴露度和防災減災能力的主要特征及其主要評估方法。從科學發(fā)展趨勢和社會經濟發(fā)展需求角度,思考了干旱災害風險評估技術發(fā)展面臨的主要科學問題及未來科學發(fā)展途徑。

Abstr：Water scarcity,food crises and ecological deterioration caused by drought disasters are a direct threat to food security and socio-economic development.Improvement of drought disaster risk assessment and emergency management is now urgently required.This article describes major scientific and technological progress in the field of drought disaster risk assessment.In China,the traditional way to manage natural disasters is through emergency management where disaster mitigation and prevention only commence after the emergence of disasters.This kind of management is no longer appropriate,especially for drought disasters.As the appearance of drought becomes more frequent and national requirements for prevention and mitigation grow,the system must transform from emergency management to risk management.In order to improve risk management,research into the characteristics of risk and risk assessments must be done.A scientific and practicable risk assessment method must be developed,so that assessment of damage caused by drought on life,society and people can be done correctly and accurately before and after the drought.By analysing the mechanisms of drought and risk management,the establishment of proper arid disaster risk management assessment mechanisms is explored and discussed.

文章關鍵詞：

Keyword：:Drought disaster Technology of risk assessment Vulnerability Exposure

課題項目：國家重點基礎研究發(fā)展計劃（973計劃）（編號：2013CB430206、2012CB955903）; 公益性行業(yè)（氣象）科研專項（編號：GYHY201006023）; 國家自然科學基金項目（編號：41175081）; 中國清潔發(fā)展機制基金項目（編號：1213112）; 干旱氣象科學研究基金項目（編號：IAM201111）

作者信息：會員可見

  本文關鍵詞：干旱災害風險評估技術及其科學問題與展望，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。