本文關(guān)鍵詞：干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估技術(shù)及其科學(xué)問題與展望，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估技術(shù)及其科學(xué)問題與展望

Drought Risk Assessment Technological Progresses and Problems

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5]

YAO Yubi;ZHANG Qiang;LI Yaohui;WANG Ying;WANG Jingsong;China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster,Gansu Province Key Laboratory

[1]中國氣象局蘭州干旱氣象研究所甘肅省干旱氣候變化與減災(zāi)重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室,中國氣象局干旱氣候變化與減災(zāi)重點(diǎn)開放實(shí)驗(yàn)室,蘭州730020; [2]甘肅省定西市氣象局,定西743000

文章摘要：在全球變暖的背景下,干旱發(fā)生的頻率和強(qiáng)度呈增加趨勢,由于干旱災(zāi)害所引發(fā)的水資源匱乏、糧食危機(jī)、生態(tài)惡化（如荒漠化）等,直接威脅到國家的糧食安全和社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估及應(yīng)急管理的技術(shù)水平亟待提高。本文介紹了干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估研究領(lǐng)域的主要科技進(jìn)展。在系統(tǒng)總結(jié)以往研究成果基礎(chǔ)上,進(jìn)行了干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析,闡述了對干旱風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估的科學(xué)認(rèn)識(shí),歸納了災(zāi)害致災(zāi)因子危險(xiǎn)性、孕災(zāi)環(huán)境的脆弱性、承災(zāi)體暴露度和防災(zāi)減災(zāi)能力的主要特征及其主要評估方法。從科學(xué)發(fā)展趨勢和社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展需求角度,思考了干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估技術(shù)發(fā)展面臨的主要科學(xué)問題及未來科學(xué)發(fā)展途徑。

Abstr：Water scarcity,food crises and ecological deterioration caused by drought disasters are a direct threat to food security and socio-economic development.Improvement of drought disaster risk assessment and emergency management is now urgently required.This article describes major scientific and technological progress in the field of drought disaster risk assessment.In China,the traditional way to manage natural disasters is through emergency management where disaster mitigation and prevention only commence after the emergence of disasters.This kind of management is no longer appropriate,especially for drought disasters.As the appearance of drought becomes more frequent and national requirements for prevention and mitigation grow,the system must transform from emergency management to risk management.In order to improve risk management,research into the characteristics of risk and risk assessments must be done.A scientific and practicable risk assessment method must be developed,so that assessment of damage caused by drought on life,society and people can be done correctly and accurately before and after the drought.By analysing the mechanisms of drought and risk management,the establishment of proper arid disaster risk management assessment mechanisms is explored and discussed.

文章關(guān)鍵詞：

Keyword：:Drought disaster Technology of risk assessment Vulnerability Exposure

課題項(xiàng)目：國家重點(diǎn)基礎(chǔ)研究發(fā)展計(jì)劃（973計(jì)劃）（編號：2013CB430206、2012CB955903）; 公益性行業(yè)（氣象）科研專項(xiàng)（編號：GYHY201006023）; 國家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目（編號：41175081）; 中國清潔發(fā)展機(jī)制基金項(xiàng)目（編號：1213112）; 干旱氣象科學(xué)研究基金項(xiàng)目（編號：IAM201111）

作者信息：會(huì)員可見

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估技術(shù)及其科學(xué)問題與展望，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。