本文關(guān)鍵詞：農(nóng)業(yè)氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估研究進(jìn)展與展望，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

農(nóng)業(yè)氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估研究進(jìn)展與展望

Prospects and progresses in the research of risk assessment of agro-meteorological disasters

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]

WANG Chunyi,ZHANG Jiquan,HUO Zhiguo,CAI Jingjing,LIU Xingpeng,ZHANG Qi （1. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences ,Beijing 100081, China; 2. School of Environment/Natural Disas

[1]中國(guó)氣象科學(xué)研究院,北京100081; [2]東北師范大學(xué)環(huán)境學(xué)院/自然災(zāi)害研究所,長(zhǎng)春130024

文章摘要：農(nóng)業(yè)氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究既是災(zāi)害學(xué)和農(nóng)業(yè)氣象學(xué)領(lǐng)域中研究的熱點(diǎn),又是當(dāng)前政府相關(guān)管理部門和農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)部門亟需的應(yīng)用性較強(qiáng)的課題。農(nóng)業(yè)氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的理論和方法進(jìn)展很快,但尚沒有文獻(xiàn)對(duì)相關(guān)研究做出較為系統(tǒng)的論述。為全面了解農(nóng)業(yè)氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的研究現(xiàn)狀,在綜合分析近30年來(lái)相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估方面所取得的研究成果進(jìn)行了總結(jié)和評(píng)述,指出了當(dāng)前研究的一些不足,并對(duì)今后農(nóng)業(yè)氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估研究的趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行了展望。首先對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估研究的歷史進(jìn)行了回顧;重點(diǎn)闡述了農(nóng)業(yè)氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的主要內(nèi)容,包括致災(zāi)因子的危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)估,承災(zāi)體脆弱或易損性評(píng)估,災(zāi)情期望損失評(píng)估和災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)綜合評(píng)估;歸納出農(nóng)業(yè)氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估研究中采用的3類主要方法——基于指標(biāo)的綜合評(píng)估方法、基于數(shù)據(jù)的概率評(píng)估方法以及基于情景模擬的評(píng)估方法;最后對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估目前存在的問題和未來(lái)可能的研究方向進(jìn)行了探討。

Abstr：The research on the agro-meteorological disaster risk is a hotspot of Catastrophology,as well as a practical task of urgent needs by the government.Though the assessment methods and theory of agro-meteorological disaster risk advances rapidly,a systematically review still remains vacant in this area.In order to have a thorough grasp of the current research status of the agro-meteorological disaster risk assessment,we have summarized and reviewed the present research achievements based on the relevant literatures of the recent 30 years,through which,we pointed out some existing shortcomings and put forward several research prospects of the agro-meteorological disaster risk assessment in the future.At the beginning,we reviewed the research history of the agro-meteorological disaster risk assessment,and then we elaborated the main content of the agro-meteorological disaster risk assessment,including the hazard risk assessment,vulnerability assessment,disaster damage assessment and comprehensive assessment,which could overall be summed up into three methods：the evaluation based on indexes,evaluation based on sample data,and the scenario simulation assessment method.In the end,we discussed shortcomings existing in the present research and the possible future research fields in the agro-meteorological disaster risk.This study would provide a reference for future agro-meteorological disaster risk assessment and promote its progress.

文章關(guān)鍵詞：

Keyword：:Agro-meteorological disasters Risk assessment Research progresse Research prospect

課題項(xiàng)目：“十二五”農(nóng)村領(lǐng)域國(guó)家科技支撐計(jì)劃（2011BAD32B004）; “十二五”國(guó)家科技支撐計(jì)劃（2013BAK05B01）; 國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目（41371495）

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：農(nóng)業(yè)氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估研究進(jìn)展與展望，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。