本文關(guān)鍵詞：旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險評估的初步理論框架，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

摘要：

旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險評估是定量認(rèn)識旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險機理、科學(xué)防控旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險的重要基礎(chǔ)性研究，在旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險管理理論與實踐中具有重要意義。根據(jù)旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險的形成機制，在旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險評估基本概念分析的基礎(chǔ)上，提出并系統(tǒng)地闡述了由旱災(zāi)致災(zāi)因子危險性、承災(zāi)體的災(zāi)損敏感性、暴露和抗旱能力組成的旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險系統(tǒng)。在此系統(tǒng)結(jié)構(gòu)基礎(chǔ)上提出了旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險評估方法論和旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險評估理論模式，進而建立了由致災(zāi)因子危險性分析、承災(zāi)體脆弱性分析、旱災(zāi)損失風(fēng)險分析、旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險評價、旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險決策分析方法組成的旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險評估方法體系，以及由干旱頻率與旱災(zāi)損失關(guān)系曲線圖、干旱頻率空間分布圖、旱災(zāi)損失空間分布圖、與旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險有關(guān)的致災(zāi)因子危險性分布圖等各種專題圖、旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險區(qū)劃圖組成的旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險評估應(yīng)用模式體系。由上述旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險系統(tǒng)結(jié)構(gòu)、旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險評估方法論和理論模式、旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險評估方法體系和應(yīng)用模式體系組成旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險評估的初步理論框架，該理論框架在其它自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評估中具有參考應(yīng)用價值。

Abstract： 

Drought risk assessment is one of the most important basic researches on the quantitative under-standing of the mechanism of drought risk and scientific control of drought risk,which is of great significance in the theory and practice of drought risk management.According to the formation mechanism of drought risk,the drought risk system consisted of disaster hazard,damage sensitivity,drought exposure and drought resistance capacity is proposed and systematically expounded based on the analysis of the basic concepts of drought risk assessment.On the basis of the drought risk system,methodology and theoretical model of drought risk assessment are put forward. And then,the method system of drought risk assessment consisted of drought hazard analysis,drought vulnerability analysis,drought loss risk analysis,drought risk assessment,drought risk decision analysis is established.Mean-while,the application mode system of drought risk assessment is established,which is consisted of all kinds of the-matic maps related to drought risk such as drought frequency-drought loss diagram,spatial distribution maps of drought frequency,drought loss and drought hazard,as well as the hazard zoning map of drought risk.The prelimi-nary theoretical framework of drought risk assessment,which is consisted of drought risk system,methodology and theoretical model of drought risk assessment,method system of drought risk assessment and its application mode system,has reference and application value in other natural disaster risk assessments.

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險評估的初步理論框架，，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。