本文選題：人民幣匯率升值 + 出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力��； 參考：《杭州電子科技大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：當(dāng)今世界經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化、區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化，各個(gè)國(guó)家都成為世界經(jīng)濟(jì)體中不可缺少的一員，中國(guó)更在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中占有重要的一席之地。匯率作為調(diào)節(jié)國(guó)際貿(mào)易收支的主要經(jīng)濟(jì)杠桿，它的變化是影響一國(guó)的進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易狀況的重要因素之一。我國(guó)先后經(jīng)歷了固定匯率制度、雙軌匯率制度和單一的有管理浮動(dòng)匯率制度，2005年7月21日中國(guó)人民銀行宣布我國(guó)實(shí)行以市場(chǎng)供求為基礎(chǔ)、參考一籃子貨幣進(jìn)行調(diào)節(jié)、有管理的浮動(dòng)匯率制度。2006年5月15日人民幣首次“破8”，進(jìn)入“7算”時(shí)代。受2007年美國(guó)次債危機(jī)引發(fā)的全球金融危機(jī)影響，世界主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體外需都大幅萎縮，我國(guó)的匯率政策和外貿(mào)政策也做了一些必要調(diào)整以應(yīng)對(duì)這些前所未有的挑戰(zhàn)。2008年7月21日匯改啟動(dòng)3周年，人民幣兌美元中間報(bào)價(jià)6.8271。隨著2010年6月19日中國(guó)人民銀行二次匯改的啟動(dòng)，人民幣匯率彈性明顯加強(qiáng)，2010年底1美元兌人民幣6.6227元，2011年底1美元兌人民幣6.3009元，2011年人民幣對(duì)美元累計(jì)升值5.11%。在此背景下，人民幣對(duì)美元持續(xù)升值，一定程度上加大了我國(guó)出口貿(mào)易的匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。在當(dāng)今中國(guó)已發(fā)展成為對(duì)外貿(mào)易大國(guó)的情況下，“中國(guó)制造”的標(biāo)簽仍深深地為中國(guó)的貿(mào)易烙上了印記，這不得不讓我們思考中國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，來分析我國(guó)出口商品在國(guó)際上到底處于一個(gè)什么樣的水平。加上如今人民幣匯率穩(wěn)妥的升值步伐，也讓我們思考我國(guó)出口商品競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力與人民幣匯率的升值兩者之間是否存在某種相關(guān)的聯(lián)系。 根據(jù)傳統(tǒng)的貿(mào)易理論，人民幣匯率的持續(xù)升值，對(duì)我國(guó)的進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易會(huì)產(chǎn)生影響。本文在理論分析人民幣匯率升值對(duì)出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力影響的基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建了人民幣升值與出口產(chǎn)品競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力之間的檢驗(yàn)?zāi)Ｐ�，為了更好的說明匯率對(duì)出口商品競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的影響，并排除其他因素的影響，選取國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值及外商直接投資作為控制變量來研究。由于自2005年以來我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)、匯率等各方面都發(fā)生了很大的變化，為了說明自2005年匯改以來人民幣匯率對(duì)我國(guó)出口商品競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的影響，文章首先選取2005-2012年的季度數(shù)據(jù)為樣本，分析了人民幣升值對(duì)出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的總體影響，，這一結(jié)論與我們傳統(tǒng)認(rèn)知一致——人民幣升值會(huì)對(duì)出口產(chǎn)品的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力帶來負(fù)面的影響；由于各類商品自身的特點(diǎn)及其貿(mào)易特點(diǎn)，文章又把出口商品分為農(nóng)產(chǎn)品、工業(yè)制品、高新技術(shù)產(chǎn)品及加工貿(mào)易品等4類分別進(jìn)行研究，得出人民幣匯率對(duì)各類出口商品存在不同影響的結(jié)果：人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品并不存在影響；而在對(duì)高新技術(shù)產(chǎn)品的影響上，當(dāng)期與前期匯率升值對(duì)其有相反的作用：當(dāng)期促進(jìn)，前期削弱；人民幣匯率升值對(duì)工業(yè)制品及加工貿(mào)易品的出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的影響則與對(duì)總體影響的實(shí)證結(jié)果一致。文章并就出現(xiàn)這一不同影響結(jié)果的原因進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)的分析。 最后，在以上研究的基礎(chǔ)上，得出本論文的主要結(jié)論，并給出有針對(duì)性的政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the globalization of the world economy and the integration of regional economy, each country has become an indispensable member of the world economy. China has an important place in the global economy. As the main economic lever to adjust the international trade and expenditure, the exchange rate is one of the important factors that affect the state of a country's import and export trade. China has experienced the fixed exchange rate system, the double track exchange rate system and the single management floating exchange rate system. In July 21, 2005, the people's Bank of China announced that China was based on market supply and demand and adjusted by a basket of currencies. The managed floating exchange rate system was "broken 8" for the first time in May 15th.2006 and entered the "7 calculation". Influenced by the global financial crisis triggered by the 2007 sub debt crisis in the United States, the world's major economy needs to be substantially shrinking in vitro. China's exchange rate policy and foreign trade policy have also made some necessary adjustments to cope with these unprecedented challenges in July 21st.2008, and the exchange rate of RMB against US dollar in the middle of July 21st is 3rd anniversary, with 2010 6 On the start of the two remittance of the people's Bank of China on 19 July, the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate was obviously strengthened, 1 US dollars against RMB 6.6227 yuan at the end of 2010, 1 US dollars against RMB 6.3009 yuan at the end of the year, the cumulative appreciation of RMB against the US dollar in 2011, in this context, the continuous appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, to a certain extent, increased the exchange rate of China's export trade. Rate risk. Under the situation that China has become a big foreign trade country today, the label of "made in China" is still deeply imprinted for China's trade, which has to let us think about the competitiveness of China's foreign trade and analyze the level of China's export commodities in the world. The steady pace of appreciation of the exchange rate also allows us to think about whether there is a correlation between the competitiveness of our export commodities and the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate.
According to the traditional trade theory, the continuous appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will have an impact on China's import and export trade. Based on the theoretical analysis of the influence of RMB exchange rate appreciation on export competitiveness, this paper constructs a test model between the appreciation of RMB and the competitiveness of export products in order to better explain the competition of the exchange rate to export commodities. The impact of the force, and excluding the influence of other factors, select the gross domestic product and foreign direct investment as the control variable. Since 2005, China's economy, exchange rate and other aspects have undergone great changes, in order to explain the effect of RMB exchange rate on the competitiveness of China's export commodities since the 2005 reform, the article first The 2005-2012 year quarterly data is selected as the sample to analyze the overall effect of RMB appreciation on export competitiveness. This conclusion is in agreement with our traditional cognition that the appreciation of RMB will have a negative impact on the competitiveness of export products; the article also divides the export commodities into the export commodities due to their own characteristics and their trade characteristics. 4 types of agricultural products, industrial products, high and new technology products and processing trade products are studied respectively, and the results of the different effects of RMB exchange rate on various export commodities are obtained: the change of RMB exchange rate has no effect on agricultural products, but on the impact on high-tech products, the current exchange rate and the earlier exchange rate have the opposite effect. The impact of the RMB exchange rate appreciation on the export competitiveness of industrial products and processing trade goods is consistent with the empirical results on the overall impact. The article also makes a detailed analysis of the reasons for the results of this different impact.
Finally, on the basis of the above research, we draw the main conclusions of this thesis and give targeted policy recommendations.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：杭州電子科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F752.62;F832.6

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